The U.S. and her allies want Iran to stop its nuclear weapons research. Iran has three options here:
(1) Cave in to pressure and stop the research.
(2) Pretend to cave in while secrectly continuing the research.
(3) Ignore the pressure and carry on.
Based upon Iranian public statements, and my guess of how Irananian leaders think option (3) will play out, I think there's a 90% chance that Iran will choose option (3), and 10% chance of option (2), and a close to 0% chance of option (1).
Therefore, future posts in this series will explore what happens after Iran ignores the UN Security Council or whatever other pressure we put on them.
Iran might feel it need nuke for self protection. Just look at North Korea, another rogue state that US thus far has been unable to do anything about.
It might also feel it needs nuke to counteract Isreals nuclear arsenal.
We have a real image problem in the middle east. There is no easy way to justify looking the other way on the Isreal's nuclear weapon program but demanding Iran to stop its.
This has been suggested already. Why not give both sides the bomb? This way, both sides will either have to live in peace or not live at all.
Posted by: nobody | April 27, 2006 at 07:45 PM
Why not just let Iran have nuclear weapons? I will address that issue once I get down to the appropriate level of the decision tree.
Posted by: Half Sigma | April 28, 2006 at 09:27 AM