Scott Adams says (hat tip Catallarchy for pointing me to Scott Adams' blog):
From my point of view, the terrorists will never stop, and we’ll never kill enough of them, and their weapons and tactics will improve without end. At some future point, only Draconian methods will end the threat. That’s why I predict that some hawkish Christian leader will emerge with an idea for eliminating Islam. And as horribly evil as that will be, no one will have a better idea.
Just to be clear, I’m not advocating that solution. I just predict it will happen.
I think this is a reasonable prediction.
The Israel/Hezbollah conflict is an example of the likelihood of this happening. Israel doesn't have the balls to completely wipe out Hezbollah (like blowing up Mosques, intentionally targeting civilians, attacking anyone who resupplies Hezbollah), so eventually there will be a ceasefire, and then Hezbollah will be resupplied by Iran and Syria, and more Shiites will join up because they were inspired by Hezbollah's ability to stand up to the Jews. Eventually Hezbollah will be even more powerful than it was before the attack.
Now some will say "ah ha! This means it was a mistake for Israel to attack." This ignores the fact that Hezbollah was growing stronger and stronger before the Israeli attack. Shiites were joining up inspired by Hezbollah's ability to kidnap Israeli soldiers and get away with it.
So you see, whether Israel does nothing, or attacks Hezbollah half-hearted way (the current strategy), Hezbollah grows stronger.
One point that few people have noticed is that Hezbollah's missile attacks are all sizzle and no steak, so to speak. On average there's been one Israeli death for each eighty-three missiles fired. You probably get a higher kill rate in fistfights.
Posted by: Peter | July 30, 2006 at 04:16 PM
"One point that few people have noticed is that Hezbollah's missile attacks are all sizzle and no steak, so to speak"
Counting only deaths overlooks a lot, to say the least.
For every death there are many more injuries. For every injury there is much more property destruction. For all the property destruction there is still more fear of a random bomb from above.
By the same reasoning you could say that Hitler's V2 rocket attacks on England were "all sizzle and no steak".
Posted by: Tex | July 30, 2006 at 04:37 PM
The idea of banning Islam is simply another fantasy dreamed up by people in the west. 2000 years ago, the Roman tried to ban another religion that was causing them problem. They took extreme measures too, but that exactly didn't work out too well for the Romans. The point, it is hard to kill a belief system.
The problem is not Islam. It is our addiction to oil that forces us to interfere with the middle east. The natives don't take kindly to our meddling of their business. If there was no oil, why should western powers care? It would be another conflict that the media don't bother covering, like the conflicts in Africa.
Here are two a more likely predictions.
1) This problem will solve itself in about hundred year or so when the oil well rans dry. The world powers will lose interest and abandon this area. The natives will settle their own disputes one way or another. The the oil, they won't be able to afford fancy jet fighters or rockets.
2) State of Isreal will cease to be a Jewish in a hundred years or so. The Arab population inside Isreal will outnumber the Jews, and when the Isreali PM is an Arab, it would be hard for the rest of the Arab world to hate Isreal.
Posted by: nobody | July 30, 2006 at 07:27 PM
"State of Israel will cease to be a Jewish in a hundred years or so. The Arab population inside Israel will outnumber the Jews, and when the Israeli PM is an Arab, it would be hard for the rest of the Arab world to hate Isreal."
Actually there are about as many Orthodox Jews in Israel as Arabs, and those chaste Orthodoxers pop out more babies per mom than Arabs.
Word of Jewish demographic demise is greatly exaggerated.
Posted by: Tex | July 30, 2006 at 08:49 PM
Putting aside Israel for a moment, a far more effective strategy of fighting domestic terrorism, in America and the West, is to simply ban all Muslims and people from Muslim countries from entering, and letting the visas of such people already here expire, forcing them to go back home. As for the Muslim citizens... the best solution if effective is to pay them to leave. I'm astonished that this is never proposed on conservative radio, as it doesn't seem all that un-PC.
It's pretty ludicrous to wage trillion dollar wars when we can do a better job giving the INS a few mil. Who cares what those crazy Arabs do if they are no threat to us?
Posted by: The Superfluous Man | July 31, 2006 at 12:27 AM
West, and in particular US needs to take quick steps for elimination of Islam. Any such failure will be at their peril as they are outnumbering fast and are employing several alluring practices to increase their number. They are preaching in US alluring christians into islam. Remember the case of Richard Reid, a neo convert to islam, who within a few days of his conversion made up his mind to carry out a suicide attack. Fortunately enough he was apprehended early. There must be several more Richard Reid likes blooming in US. Not only US, it must be ensured that islam becomes a real minority globally. Before that goal is believed and realised, the world is not safe.
Posted by: Your Brother | November 01, 2007 at 05:45 PM