According to U.S. Census data, average real earnings for men aged 18-65 without a high school degree decreased by 3.6% from 1989 to 1999. But during the same period, there was an 11.7% increase in average real earnings for men aged 18-65 who had at least a bachelor’s degree.
When will this trend stop? The answer is never. It will in fact accelerate as more advanced labor saving devices (such as robots) are introduced into the economy, rendering unskilled labor less and less valuable.
Of course this trend is also abetted by exporting of menial jobs to other countries, and immigration of unskilled workers increasing the supply of laborers and thus reducing salaries.
How low do earnings of unskilled laborers have to go before Congress decides that we don’t need any more immigration?
"How low do earnings of unskilled laborers have to go before Congress decides that we don’t need any more immigration? "
A curious case for lowering, not raising the minimum wage - so that politicians will see the havoc of their own policy.
Posted by: The Superfluous Man | July 07, 2006 at 12:14 AM
Could it be that the real explanation is not that the labor of men without high school diplomas is getting less valuable, but rather that the average IQ of men without high school diplomas is falling?
Posted by: Brandon Berg | July 07, 2006 at 12:23 AM
Brandon, According to the GSS, the average IQ of people with at least a Bachelor's degree is decreasing twice as fast as the average IQ of people without a high school diploma.
Posted by: Half Sigma | July 07, 2006 at 12:43 AM
If we are talking about unskilled labor in the corporate environment, that is one thing. But on the outside, a guy with no college can make a good living cleaning windows because of the laws of supply and deman: no one wants to do it. I'm making twice what I did 15 years ago, and I will probably be giving myself a raise again next year. If I worked for a company, where I am just a commodity, my family would be at the mercy of people who see me as a cost that they want to remain fixed, instead of a convenient service with value added (homeowners like and trust me).
We, the grunts, need to understand that we are in the enviable position of being the few who are willing to do the world's dirty work. We can get all the money we have the nerve to ask for. I see other HS grads do it all the time. I know a painter who heads to New York State for the summer to play golf, and comes back to Florida for his busy season. He's my hero. :)
Posted by: Don Marsh | July 07, 2006 at 05:29 AM
Small interstitial one/two man businesses like window washing or (my favorite example of an absurd micromarket, which a friend of mine makes a very good living at) etching the glass on lawyer's doors are accidental niches, the kind of thing that the clever undereducated fall into by luck. The idea that any serious percentage of soon-to-be-useless labor could find some three-contractors-per-metropolitan area microtrade is a joke. Just the rigors of running a one man business (taxes, managing business loans, etc.) are probably too much for most.
Posted by: Turkey | July 07, 2006 at 09:03 AM
According to the GSS, the average IQ of people with at least a Bachelor's degree is decreasing twice as fast as the average IQ of people without a high school diploma.
IQ might not be the main issue. What with all the ways that schools try to keep just about everyone until graduation, many of the remaining high school dropouts are the most troubled of all - drunks, drug addicts, the hopelessly delinquent, and so on. It's no surprise that their earnings are so low. Most of them probably have the worst imaginable work habits.
Posted by: Peter | July 07, 2006 at 09:56 AM
Peter, I'm sure you correctly explain the statistic. IQ of high school droputs is decreasing because it's easier to graduate from high school so only the least intelligent remain.
At the same time, a higher percentage of the population goes to college, so colleges are dipping down into the average or even below average IQ part of the population for some of their students, causing the IQ of the average college graduate to drop.
Yet one of the few areas in the GSS where that Wordsum score is a LOT less important than educational attainment is when predicting income.
Posted by: Half Sigma | July 07, 2006 at 10:00 AM
>Peter, I'm sure you correctly explain the statistic. IQ of high school droputs is decreasing because it's easier to graduate from high school so only the least intelligent remain.
At the same time, a higher percentage of the population goes to college, so colleges are dipping down into the average or even below average IQ part of the population for some of their students, causing the IQ of the average college graduate to drop.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This is called >.
A degree is worth less than what it stand for before. Yet such degree often makes a talent for labor job dreaming of white collar position which he might not be good at.
Posted by: AG | July 07, 2006 at 02:51 PM
This is called EDUCATION INFLATION.
A degree is worth less than what it stand for before. Yet such degree often makes a talent for labor job dreaming of white collar position which he might not be good at.
Posted by: AG | July 07, 2006 at 02:52 PM
"the kind of thing that the clever undereducated fall into by luck."
Yeah, it's always luck when it's someone else who has made it. I think Turkey is one of those who is educated beyond common sense.
All I know is that I see a lot of work that goes undone because there is no one to do it. It adds up. If you can add...
Posted by: Don Marsh | July 07, 2006 at 06:36 PM