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August 25, 2006


Your analysis is much better than the WSJ's.

Brooks likes being quantitative, but he's scared to follow the numbers. He spoke at my school, and said that the locations with the highest birthrates voted republican, which he got from Sailer, but he did not cite the stronger correlation: higher white birthrate = more republican.

Well, it is liberal whites who have fewer kids than conservative whites. Only white liberals vote. Minorities are most democrats with more kids. But minority democrats do not vote.

WSJ imply white liberals.

Blacks do not have "much higher birthrates than white." Slightly higher, yes, but not "much" higher.

HS: Did you have a study indicating white liberals with higher IQ and lower birth rate compared to white conservatives?

Anyhow, high IQ with low birth rate fit Rushton theory again and again.

It's really pretty easy to solve this. There are really THREE groups: white liberals, white conservatives, and minorities. white conservatives have more kids than white liberals but fewer than minorities, which produces all sorts of statistical anomalies because you have a high and a low group mixed together and compared with a medium group.

Separate out race.

Half Sigma:
everyone knows that the Republicans are the party of the rich and the Democrats are the party of the poor.

Yes, everyone knows it, but is it true? I believe the average incomes are comparable. The distributions are probably not best described by a single number that way. One thing I've heard is that Republican states are poor, but in each state, Republicans are rich. These two factors should cancel each other out.

I've always maintained the so-called culture war is actually a population war. Thanks for actually doing some work with those numbers.

Republicans believe in a government for themselves and can have as many kids as they'ed like, Libertarians believe in government for nobody so dont care how many kids they have, and Democrats believe in government for everybody and try to have less kids because they know they have to take care of everyone elses kids And if you remove the kid factor the same rule applies.

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