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August 28, 2006

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Keep in mind that there have been only 19 Presidents since Benjamin Harrison, excluding Cleveland's second term. Four exceptions out of 19 is not insignificant.

Yeah, that may be somewhat true, but our society is changing. Sachs is about as close to a popular economist as it gets these days, and if anyone has a chance to disprove your theory, i would think it is him. He is already in with the Bono/Jolie crowd, and he has been hot with the political set for years now. So, while he does not have the direct political experience that you seem to expect, he does have the overall experience and the visibility.

And hell, if Arnold can become governator of our most important state based on his ability to shoot bad guys on film, Sachs should be able to do it based on his actual knowledge and life's work...

"And hell, if Arnold can become governator of our most important state based on his ability to shoot bad guys on film, Sachs should be able to do it based on his actual knowledge and life's work..."

Show business is one of the major industries in the state of California, so an actor becoming governor is no more surpising than a peanut farmer becoming the governor of Georgia.

Both Reagan and Carter were governor before they became President. This Sachs guy will need to run for governor first.

"Four exceptions out of 19 is not insignificant."

The popular Cabinet member/general exception: the only person I can think of who fits that category today is Collin Powell.

Don't forget that only governors have been elected since the primary system was reformed in '68 (Dems) and '72 (Repubs). Senators have a distinct problem of having a voting record on national issues. This loses them state primaries. Governors have the advantage of basically spending/touting education and other feel good programs from their governor days, without the national baggage. Clinton II will not get elected, though if anyone snaps this streak, she will probably be the one.

Arnold, senators can win primaries well enough -- it's winning the election that is hard. The two general paths to the presidency are through the governor's mansion or the the vice presidency. A senator's path to the presidency will most likely be through the vice-presidency.

One of the interesting things about 2008 is that there is a very good possibility that both parties will nominated a senator - McCain and Clinton - though Hillary essentially has the plusses and minuses of a Veep.

Isn't this Sachs guy jewish? I used to do political surveys via telephone in 2000 and the anti-semitism I heard regarding Lieberman was crazy. Sadly, this country will never accept a Jewish president. I doubt it would even accept a Catholic one. Kennedy arguably didn't win against wretched Nixon.

I understand your argument, but i just don't think it is reasonable. Why, for example, would someone like Sachs (who has a lot of policy experience and knowledge) not be able to tap into an anti-establishment sentiment? If there is anything i have learned in my days as a financial analysist, it is that you can't judge the future preformance of a stock based on past trends. I think the same holds true of our elections. Any little thing could become a reason someone is or is not elected.

Sachs specifically has all the experience of any politician. He has baggage too, but his popularity is pretty wide. Plus, if any single person can tap into the political strength of celebrity, Sachs' connections to Bono, Brad Pitt, Bill Gates and the like can do it.

Basically, what i am saying is that i have seen analysis like this before. And just because you say it HAS happened does not mean it WILL alwasy happen. and especially when you don't provide any evidence for it, and just say it proves itself. Sachs is more famous then 90% of politicians and he has more experience then most of the rest. And like governers, he does not have a voting record to damn him to hell. So, while i don't even know whether Sachs would run, I would like to see it. And I think he would have a better chance then almost all the other "contenders".

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