I have become convinced, in part by Dick Morris, that Rudy Giuliani will be the next President of the United States.
Every pundit "knows" that Giuliani can't win the Republican nomination because he's pro-abortion. I fell for this same line of thinking myself, but now I realize it was wrong. Sure, it's a hurdle, but with Giuliani way out in front, and McCain falling behind, Rudy looks like he's home free.
The majority of both parties are moderate. Most Republicans are slightly right of center and most Democrats are slightly left of center. The idealogical hardcore may have disproportionate influence at the leadership level, but they aren't the majority of voters. Maybe one third of Republicans won't vote for Rudy, but that third will split their vote between too many other candidates. The moderate Republicans will love Rudy's charisma. He's the hero of 9/11 and America's Mayor.
Mitt Romney won't capture the religious voters because evangelical Christians don't want to vote for a guy who believes that God is an alien from another planet.
I still support Newt, and indeed Newt is rising in the polls and may soon be in second place behind Giuliani. I correctly predicted that Newt was the only real conservative who had a chance of winning.
I still think that Sam Brownback will rise in the polls before this is over, but perhaps so will Mike Huckabee. One of them has to drop out because they are clones of each other who will just steal each others' votes.
In a matchup against Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani will win easily. And indeed, this is one reason why Rudy will win the nomination. What do conservatives hate most? Hillary Clinton as president. Hillary Clinton's likely nomination on the Democratic side will cause Republicans to vote for the candidate most likely to defeat her because they'd rather have a pro-abortion Republican. At least Giuliani says he opposes gay marriage and that he will appoint judges like Alito and Roberts. Newt Gingrich, who will rise as the alternative to the right of Rudy, will be deemed a risk in the general election.
This sure does make things interesting. Rudy will steal votes away from the smart half of the Democratic Party, reversing the trend of the past few election in which high IQ voters have been defecting from the Republican Party.