Rumors of attack on Iran

There seems to be a bunch of renewed rumor-mongering about a possible U.S. attack on Iran. Or maybe it's going to be an Israeli attack using tactical nuclear weapons.

Time Magazine reports that Israeli planes invaded Syrian airspace. This is assumed to be some sort of preparation for war. Either Israel is testing the possibility of flying through Syria in order to get to Iran, or Israel is testing the efficacy of Russian-manufactured air defense systems that Iran also has in its possession in order to help out the U.S.

DEBKAfile reports that two U.S. carriers, the Nimitz and the Truman, are headed towards the Persian Gulf. Of course, DEBKAfile reports a lot of stuff that turns out to be bogus, but sometimes they're right.

I still think it's more likely than not that both George Bush the Israelis will wuss out and acquiesce to letting Iran develop nuclear weapons.

Comments

[Gamma Man]

How can anyone stop a fairly developed country from getting nukes? The technology is over 60 years old and in the public domain.
MAD is dead. Admit it.
Let them have nukes. After all. if North Korea, Pakistan and Israel have nukes, why can´t Iran? It´s not that they are any crazier than those mentioned above.

There has been an "imminent attack" on Iran for the last year or so (They deserve it too, but that is another issue). This story has been batted around for a while. Still hasn't happened. I wouldn't be surprised if it did, but I'm not holding my breath.
Israeli jets flew to bomb Osirak years ago, so it is pretty easy to get to Iran if they wanted to. The US controls Iraqi airspace, friendly skies most of the way(fuel, electronic support, etc...). Israeli pilots also "violate" Syrian airspace on a regular basis for a number of reasons, not just to "test" Russian made radar equipment. Israeli jets have even buzzed Damascus a few time, just to prove they can. Military pilots love doing stuff like that (if they tell you they don't, they are lying). Hostile nations often fuck with each other just short of war. It has been going on forever.

[JewishAtheist]

Why have a small clusterfuck when you can turn it into a bigger one?

"It´s not that they are any crazier than those mentioned above."

http://blogcritics.org/archives/2006/02/11/131248.php

No not at all!

[Surfer MaryJane]

HS,

I think you should enlist! With your IQ, you'd ace the entrance exam (but first, open a book on automotive repair), and could get into whatever MOS you wanted. Wouldn't it suck to see the US invade another country and not be part of it?

You have to keep up HS.

Progressives have been progressively warning us how this is imminent since September 30, 2006.

The Hal Turner Show has been told that within the next five (5) weeks, the United States will "suffer" a missile attack upon the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise, presently on patrol near the Persian Gulf. This attack will appear to be from numerous "Silkworm" and/or "Sunburn" missiles which will sink the vessel and kill most of the 5,000 crew onboard.
The "attack" will be blamed on Iran and thus provide the Bush Administration with an excuse to go to war with that nation.
The Hal Turner Show has learned that the missiles used to attack the USS Enterprise will not be fired from or by Iran, but rather will be a "false flag operation" made to LOOK as though Iran carried out the attack!

It is finally "about" to (2) happen!

Just so you arent behind the news curve, Cheney is planning on blowing up the Bay Bridge:

politics from the heart

If I didnt know better I'd think someone was trying to control their voting bloc with fear.

[TGGP]

Do you actually WANT an attack on Iran?

I am quite confident that by the time Bush leaves office we will still not have attacked Iran. There's just too much on our plate with Iraq and Afghanistan and there is no political capital behind it.

[Peter]

Hostile nations often fuck with each other just short of war. It has been going on forever.

Just short of war? In the Middle East, actual war has been going on more or less continuously since before most of us were born. The headline "Israeli Troops Clash with Palestinians" could have appeared yesterday ... or one year ago ... or one decade ago ... or 25 years ago ... you get the point.

[DML]

"I still think it's more likely than not that both George Bush the Israelis will wuss out and acquiesce to letting Iran develop nuclear weapons."

Wow, don't tell me you're one of these people (neocons) who actually fears imminent development of nukes by Iran. This fear mongering is absurd, especially when put in light of the 40,000 nuclear war heads to Soviets had aimed at the United States (and these were *real* nukes that could hit us from the Soviet Union).

The only presidential candidate with a reasonable position on this is Republican candidate Ron Paul.

[bbartlog]

Progressives have been progressively warning us how this is imminent September 30, 2006.

Give them another three years and they'll catch up to the pro-war record of predicting success in Iraq!

[Turambar]

Are you saying that Iran cant develop the technology, they arent crazy or they arent motivated to use it against Israel?

Because all of those appear to be true. You'd have to be pretty dumb not to fear Iran having nuclear weapons.

[Surfer MaryJane]

Turambar,

A country can't be crazy, since it doesn't have a brain (only individuals do). For instance, it would be incorrect to say the United States is a warmongering idiot, but valid to say George Bush is a warmongering idiot.

[David Alexander]

I'll probably end up being accused of being the village idiot for the Iranians, but the worst thing at this point would be to perform military strikes against Iran as it would only reinforce their reasoning behind having atomic weaponry. It's the Osirak situation again, where after the Israelis blew up the facility, Saddam Hussein redoubled his efforts to have weapons of mass destruction.

The only way you're really going to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program is if you invade Iran and change the regime to a non-nuclear friendly one. Since the Persians are a proud race of Indo-Europeans, I will suggest actual military planning first with a large military force of at least 750K troops minimum*. In effect, unless we're willing to go through the sacrifice of war and decreased gasoline stocks along with increased prices, this will never happen.

A country can't be crazy, since it doesn't have a brain (only individuals do).

The old states are rational actors line that's generally used in intro courses for International Relations. Oddly, it makes sense even in the case of Iran as there's no sense in ruling over corpses and radioactive territory. The know Israel will strike back, and thus the weapon serves as a deterent against Israel. The problem with Iran having a bomb is that Saudis won't stand for having the Shiite state have bombs, and the last thing we need is two oil rich nations with deep hatred for each other with bombs.

OTOH, bombs have made India and Pakistan tolerate each other's existance...

*I am not a military planner.

[David Alexander]

The know Israel will strike back

To clarify, it should be:

They know that Israel will strike back if they use nuclear weapons against Israel.

[Gamma Man]

By crazy, I meant: potential enemy of the West. Iran is a threat to the West, but then so are North Korea,Pakistan or Israel. And for as long as the USA is governed by the neocons, it is also a threat for the West (and itself).
Now, would I feel sae with Iran having nukes? certainly not, but seeing that a) there's no way to stop them; b) other countries no less dangerous already have the bomb... why bother?
In 20 years or so we'll all have to live with the fact that more and more exotic countries will go nuclear.
Of course, I'd rather see Switzerland or Italy geting nukes than non-Western countries .
And don't argue that Israel is part of the West, because it's obviously not, in any sense part of it, whether in the cultural, political, racial or geographical sense.
Israel is middle eastern and hebrew, and Israelis want it that way, which makes sense.

So stipulate that Ahmadinejad and his "International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust" are the ones who are crazy.

Is it really so jazzy hands wacky to fear these guys having nukes?

[Gamma Man]

They're entitled to their own brand of madness. If you want, I can list some of the details that could define Israel as a rogue nation.

[JewishAtheist]

And don't argue that Israel is part of the West, because it's obviously not, in any sense part of it, whether in the cultural, political, racial or geographical sense.

That's ridiculous. Israel is the west culturally, politically, and at least partly racially. Only in the geographic sense do you have any point at all.

[Gamma Man]

The West is Christian and European; Israel is neither.

[Half Sigma]

The major population of Israel are people who moved there from Western Europe, giving Israel as much claim to be Western as Australia or New Zealand. (Racially, Ashkenazi Jews are desdendants of Romans.)

Judaism is as close as you can get to Christianity without actually being Christianity. Is Utah not part of the West because the people who live in Utah are Mormon?

Commercially, Israeli trade is with Europe and the U.S., not its Middle Eastern neighbors.

Then there's fact that Christ was allegedly born there, and was Jewish himself.

[Gamma Man]

Sigma, if Israelis are so "Western", what makes them want to live in the middle-east?

[Turambar]

They're entitled to their own brand of madness.

Stop the obfuscation. They are not an old man in the park feeding squirrels- isnt there in fact a reason to fear a nuclear Iran?

[Gamma Man]

HS: The major population of Israel are people who moved there from Western Europe, giving Israel as much claim to be Western as Australia or New Zealand.
ME: Ok, if it was Gypsies moving from Europe to Israel, would that make them Western. Jews are not native to Europe. Just as much alien as Gypsies or Algerians.

HS Racially, Ashkenazi Jews are desdendants of Romans.) Can you prove this? I've read that Askhenazis descend from Jews stablished in Italy who then moved on to the Rhine area, but their genome is almost purely middle-eastern. closer to the Kurds than to anybody else.
HS: Judaism is as close as you can get to Christianity without actually being Christianity. Is Utah not part of the West because the people who live in Utah are Mormon?
ME: Islam is also close to Judaism: does that make Jews Muslim or vice-versa?
Mormons are strane birds, who used to be Christian. And they stil consider themselves Christian.

HS: Commercially, Israeli trade is with Europe and the U.S., not its Middle Eastern neighbors.

Then there's fact that Christ was allegedly born there, and was Jewish himself.

ME: Japan trades with the West without being part of it. So what? Maybe Israelis should poner why they are embargoed by many of their neighbours.
Buddha was Indian, does that make South East Asians of the Buddhist persuasion Indian? It does not.

[Gamma Man]

Turambar:
Yes, there's the possibility that Iran might nuke some third party. But Pakistan is more likely to attack first (India, possibly) than Iran. Why not invade Pakistan first , where BTW Osama is hiding? Or North Korea? That would make more sense.