Will Mike Huckabee be the Republican nominee?

So Mike Huckabee has almost tied Giuliani in national polls.

Back in August 2006, I wrongly predicted that Sam Brownback would come on strong. Mike Huckabee is nearly Sam Brownback’s ideological twin. So picked the wrong candidate for the right reasons.

In February, 2007, I wrote:

I still think that Sam Brownback will rise in the polls before this is over, but perhaps so will Mike Huckabee. One of them has to drop out because they are clones of each other who will just steal each others' votes.

In analyzing where I went wrong, picking Brownback over Huckabee, I made two errors:

(1) I overlooked the fact that Brownback is Catholic. I always saw that Romney would not be able to pick up the Christian vote because he’s Mormon, but I should have been dubious about Brownback’s Catholicism as well.

(2) Brownback is a Senator and Huckabee is a governor. I should have realized that national elections favor governors.

In retrospect, because of these two issues, it should have been obvious that Huckabee and not Brownback would come out on top.

I hate the idea of a fundamentalist Christian who is a liberal (Huckabee) funning against another liberal (Hillary Clinton), but it looks like Giuliani is doomed.

Comments

[Peter]

I hate the idea of a fundamentalist Christian who is a liberal (Huckabee)

In what alternative universe is Huckabee a liberal?

[DML]

"I hate the idea of a fundamentalist Christian who is a liberal (Huckabee)"

Huckabee is a liberal? You're going to throw that out there with no defense? Precisely in what ways is he more liberal than Giuliani?

[John Rich]

I'd say "no."

Mike Huckabee is likable, and is firmly in the social conservative camp. But he's got (at best) a mixed record on taxes and reducing government expenditures, so a lot of Republicans are not going to prefer him over, say, Mitt Romney.

Then there's the problem of how he continues to build after Iowa. He's got a lot of enthusiastic backers, but doesn't appear to have much in the way of a campaign network in places like New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other states gearing up for future primaries.

Right now, Huck seems to have gotten the bounce that should have been Fred Thompson's.

But please don't consider Mike Huckabee to be a "liberal" in the same way that Hillary or Obama are.

They are light years apart, and those who prefer conservatives should vote for Huck.

[Gamma Man]

Huckabee is Bush Jr all over again. Why fall for this trap?

Ron Paul has a better chance against Hilary than any other repub, but the neo-con camp which controls the repubs would rather lose than let Paul win.

They love their phony wars so much they'd rather see Hilary and Obama win.

[David Alexander]

I overlooked the fact that Brownback is Catholic. I always saw that Romney would not be able to pick up the Christian vote because he’s Mormon, but I should have been dubious about Brownback’s Catholicism as well.

I can't believe that it's 2007, and there's still an anti-Catholic bias in this country despite the fact that we're the largest organized religion in the country. Irregardless of political leanings, if we're good enough to be SCOTUS justices and form the majority of the court, then certainly, we're good enough to be president.

[michael vassar]

So the question is, if it comes down to a liberal fundie vs a liberal who's Half Sigma voting for?

[tommy]

Huckabee has a lousy record on taxes and immigration. He is a quasi-conservative after Bush's own heart. Evangelical Christian morons might prove be the death of our civilization.

I had been hoping Hucksterbee's Willie Horton problem might sink him.

[tommy]

I can't believe that it's 2007, and there's still an anti-Catholic bias in this country despite the fact that we're the largest organized religion in the country. Irregardless of political leanings, if we're good enough to be SCOTUS justices and form the majority of the court, then certainly, we're good enough to be president.

I can't believe it's 2007 and people still give a shit whether Romney is a Mormon, but hey....

[tommy]

More on Huckabee's "redemptive," soft on crime approach to law enforcement. Here is Huckabee on Cuba. This guy is a moron.

I guess it comes down to credibility on abortion and gay marriage, and support for this goddamn war. Compared to these issues, immigration, national security, taxes, trade deficits, and crime mean next to nothing for the evangelical and neocon imbecile collective.

Sadly, conservatism has been giving way to quasi-conservatism for a long time now. The rise of Christian, Hispanic-loving "compassionate conservatism" and the shaft paleoconservatives received by movement cons (like Buckley) as they were replaced by the featherweight offspring of first generation unreformed Trotskyites neocons were the first indications of rot. A Huckabee nomination would signal the complete transformation of the Republican Party to irrelevancy from a conservative perspective. I would vote for Ralph Nader again (as I did during Bush's re-election) before I would vote for Huckabee.

[JewishAtheist]

I've got my money on McCain. He appeals to all groups of Republicans -- he's relatively conservative fiscally, socially, and religiously. And he's strong on defense. What else do they want? Sure, the Republican intellectuals don't like McCain-Feingold, but I can't see that sinking him.

Here's how it's going to play out. Huckabee wins early, making Romney irrelevant. Giualiani soon crushes Huckabee or Huckabee self-destructs. Then the base realizes Rudy might actually win this thing and swings hard to McCain, who's been coming in a quiet 3rd or 4th in most of the early states. McCain coasts in to the nomination and loses to Obama by a significant but not embarrassing amount.

[tommy]

I've got my money on McCain.

Don't make that bet. You'll lose your money.

He appeals to all groups of Republicans -- he's relatively conservative fiscally, socially, and religiously. And he's strong on defense. What else do they want?

He appeals to almost no one. McCain is widely reviled throughout the Republican base. His hawkish pro-immigration stance is just the tip of the iceberg. (Unlike Huckabee, everyone is far too familiar with McCain's undying love of low IQ brown people and he doesn't even think English should be the official language.) Half-assed attempts to stop waterboarding and his sometimes tepid and sometimes ardent support for the war haven't made him many friends on either the pro- or anti-war side. McCain's star has faded. Good riddance.

[scargo]

Huckabee is a moron. Guiliani and Romney are both contemptible. Who else do the Republicans offer?? This election will be a romp for the Demos.

[russ]

Doesn't the super tuesday really make this debate moot. Florida, NY, Illinois, and California voters will all go with a nice moderate candidate and eliminate the weirdos Iowa (religious) and New Hampshire (libertarian) always choose.

[JewishAtheist]

His hawkish pro-immigration stance is just the tip of the iceberg.

Damn, I did forget about immigration (although how is that "hawkish?" Seems "dovish" if it's one or the other.) You're right, that alone could sink him with the base.

[Hike Muckabee]

Huckabee is a moron. Guiliani and Romney are both contemptible. Who else do the Republicans offer??

Ron Paul. If they're smart.

http://thecaseforronpaul.com/default.aspx

[Hike Muckabee]

By the way, Ron Paul is now polling around 8% nationally (the "case for Ron Paul" website hasn't been updated in a while).

Huckabee's campaign will crash and burn as his record becomes more widely known, but his rapid rise in the polls is demonstrative of the fact the Republican base are not satisfied with the "top tier" choices they're being offered by the press. Ron Paul has a huge base of grassroots supporters and will be in a position to capitalize once Romney/Giuliani/Club for Growth knock off Huckabee.

[tommy]

Damn, I did forget about immigration (although how is that "hawkish?" Seems "dovish" if it's one or the other.) You're right, that alone could sink him with the base.

Well, he has certainly been hawkish toward the American people on the issue. I probably should have said militant pro-immigration stance.

[GOP Lurker]

Unfortunately (imo) Huck could indeed be the nominee. A Huck nomination would put the Republicans in the wilderness for some time by fracturing the base. And I mean a "man the barricades" type of fracture.

Huck is a liberal who happens to be against abortion and gay marriage. But in the media this and a Bible-in-hand makes one a hardcore fascist conservative.

In a hypothetical Hillary-v-Huck match up, my gut tells me to stay home. I tried just now to say that I'd likely vote for Huck but I couldn't bring myself to type such a thing. Maybe Nov08 will bring a different perspective.

[Jack]

The Republican field is so chaotic I have no idea who's going to be the nominee. I could see Rudy, Mitt, McCain, or Huckabee all getting it. They all have problems. And you know, I won't completely rule out Ron Paul because his supporters are so rabid. I can see a scenario where McCain gets it, but Romney should be the choice. He is the best candidate objectively, and has a conservative record in a liberal state. He fought with the far-left legislature on many things and won. He is a social conservative, regardless of his past statements. Those were just to get elected in Mass.

Huckabee is soft on immigration and possibly crime. He has no prayer of winning a general election, and he needs to be stopped.

[APH]

If the election was held tomorrow and all candidates were in, I would not vote. There are things I like about Ron Paul, but I think his worldview is a bit nutty. I liked Giuliani as mayor because he's a leader and he's got balls, but I just can't see him as the prez. And I don't think I'd vote for him, but I would like to see Obama as president if it's going to be a Democrat (which it will)...

[Bill]

Giuliani lost my vote when he stated that he would not release Giuliani Partners’ Client list, would not sell his stock in the company, admitted that Qatar was a Client, and stated that he intended to keep cashing checks from Giuliani Partners during his Presidency. He'd sell us out like an Indian Chief.

Going from $11 million in 10 easy months to $1.6 million in four tough years wouldn’t make much sense to me either though.

Who, in their right mind, other than an influence peddler, or a true Patriot with unsound logic, would want to be President of the United States in 2008?

[Robert Hume]

Of course Giuliani is Catholic also, and it doesn't seem to be an issue.

[bbartlog]

If you watched the debates you'd realize that Brownback's elimination by Huckabee had nothing to do with Catholicism or the governor/senator thing. Huckabee is a charismatic, likeable guy, while Brownback comes off as an uncomfortable and squinty.
And yeah of course Huckabee is awful on the issues, in addition to not being nearly such a nice guy as he seems.

[Jack]

Democrats will not win this election easily, in my opinion. If it's Hillary, she is a slight favorite but by no means a shoo-in. If it's Obama, I see him having trouble winning a general election. Republicans should do what they can to help him get the Dems nomination.

[Half Sigma]

bbartlog, maybe I just liked Brownback better because he seems smarter. Brownback went to law school while Huckabee only attended Bible colleges. Brownback converted to Catholicism which means he has put a lot of thought into his religion. Huckabee is much less of a religious philosopher. Huckabee is promoting a "FairTax" even though it's obvious he has no clue about tax law.

Of course, I should have known that the typical voter doesn't care too much about whether their candidate is smart. Especially fundamentalist Christian voters.

[GMR]

While the Republican field is more chaotic, there's also a lot of issue differences. There are hardly an issue differences on the Democratic side.

I don't think Obama would be easier to beat than Hillary. Hillary has huge negatives. Obama doesn't. I think I'd rather see a Republican run against Hillary because the Republican would have a better chance.

Romney is my preferred choice I guess, but I'd be happy with Thompson or with Guliani or even McCain. I'd be pretty disappointed if the Republicans choose Huckabee, because he'd lose the general election to most anyone, and his fiscal policy isn't great. But if Huckabee is the nominee, I'm wondering if a Bloomberg candidacy might look pretty credible.

Every four years pundits like teh dream of a brokered convention. Democrats have essentially zero chance of that this year: Hillary and Obama will get all the delegates except a handful here and there. But the Republicans could enter their convention without a clear winner. But brokered conventions always seem to be avoided: someone always breaks out ahead.

[trumwill]

Brownback converted to Catholicism which means he has put a lot of thought into his religion. Huckabee is much less of a religious philosopher.

As a pastor, Huckabee has probably put a fair amount of thought into his religion.

[David Alexander]

I don't think Obama would be easier to beat than Hillary. Hillary has huge negatives. Obama doesn't.

He's a black guy with a foreign sounding last name with rumours swirling around about his past in a "Madrassa", and admitted cocaine usage. He support is mostly white liberals and young people, and his competitor polls better amongst members of his own race*. I really don't see Barack Obama or any other black person ever becoming president.

*Bill Clinton is America's "first black president" per Toni Morrison, and Andrew Young has stated in public that Bill Clinton is more black than Barack Obama.

[Gamma Man]

Will Half Sigma ever mention Ron Paul? He'd be your candidate, I guess, were it not for his lack of attachment to Israel....

[Jack]

I'm worried that Hillary will get votes from uninformed women, who rarely vote, who will be inspired to come out just cause she is a woman. Her negatives ARE high, meaning that I believe many Democratic men will do some soul-searching in that voting booth about what kind of person they want for president and may vote for a Republican.

I wonder seriously if America is going to vote for a guy with an Arab sounding name, who lived abroad most of his childhood, with very little experience of any kind. Dems nominate him, please.

Hey, David Alexander,

Have you considered going to one of these small Christian colleges, like the one Huckabee went to? There may be a lot of nubile white meat there and if you come across like a born again, they might give it up more readily- regardless of race. Just a thought.

[David Alexander]

I'm Catholic, so I don't date women from cults. :)

I'd convert if the white meat was delicious enough.