A brokered convention looks very likely if McCain fails to win Florida next Tuesday.
Once it looks like a brokered convention will really happen, I predict that a Draft Newt movement will catch steam.
Could it happen? Could New Gingrich wind up being the Republican nominee?
Doubtful.
There are a lot of states in the Republican primary where it is winner take all. McCain just needs to scoop some of those up and it's wrapped up.
The fix is already in. Fred Thompson supported McCain in 2000 and only ran to soak up conservative votes. Now that McCain's in the clear Thompson drops out. There is no doubt that it will be a McCain/Thompson ticket.
Posted by: russ | January 23, 2008 at 03:43 PM
Yup, Newt's the guy to fire up the troops. Why I think that h...zzzzzzzz
Posted by: tvoh | January 23, 2008 at 03:57 PM
Romney is probably the only one at this point with any realistic chance of stopping McCain. Ron Paul has done better than anyone expected but isn't going to win. Rudy isn't going to win in Florida or anywhere else and is pretty much dead meat. That said, I'm not sure Romney's last two wins (Nevada - lots of Mormons; Michigan, - his home state) are going to mean that much. There's lots I don't like about McCain - open borders, opposing tax cuts, global warming enthusiast, McCain-Feingold, Keating Five, but I reluctantly conclude that he would be much preferred to a Clinton restoration. He may run very well against her, too. One thing I wondered - why did John McCain retire from the Navy as a captain rather than admiral? He seemed to have all the tickets to make flag rank - Naval Academy grad, jet pilot, war hero, POW, plus his father and grandfather were admirals. Did the navy realize he was too dumb to be an admiral? He ranked fifth from the bottom in his class at Annapolis. Of course, as HS has so helpfully pointed out, he does have a very hot daughter, probably a big improvement over the Bush twins.
Posted by: Ned | January 23, 2008 at 04:17 PM
I seriously doubt that there will be a McCain-Thompson ticket. With not much presidential ambition and a rumored intolerance for boredom, I can't imagine that Thompson would sign on to be the VP. If he was merely a stalking horse for McCain, it was out of their friendship rather than maneuvering. A McCain-Huckabee ticket is possible, but is also not likely since they will probably want someone that the base doesn't hate to balance the antipathy for McCain.
I also don't think that there will be a brokered convention, though it's more possible in this cycle than it ever was in 2004 or in my lifetime.
Posted by: trumwill | January 23, 2008 at 04:48 PM
Definitely the GOP is going to field a losing horse: McCain. Remember when they ran Dole who everybody knew had no chance?
They know they are losing again to Clinton!
Why burn a young politician when an old fool is handier for sacrifice? Come to think of it, Newt also qualifies.
Likely winning ticket: Hilary/Obama. Bye, USA! Welcome to the Third World!
Posted by: Gamma Man | January 23, 2008 at 05:28 PM
"Likely winning ticket: Hilary/Obama. Bye, USA! Welcome to the Third World!"
I guess you haven't been to Newark.
Posted by: | January 23, 2008 at 05:34 PM
I've been predicting McCain for a while. (I thought it was either him or Romney for even longer.) There's no way he picks another old guy like Thompson. He'd pick someone young, virile, and archly conservative to shore up his shortcomings.
Posted by: JewishAtheist | January 23, 2008 at 05:54 PM
No Newt. That's some newsroom journalist's wet dream with no substance to it.
As a disappointed Fred-head, this Republican is hoping for Romney/Thompson.
Posted by: GOP Lurker | January 23, 2008 at 06:03 PM
re: McCain as Dole 2008.
I just don't buy it. The media loves McCain. McCain is really personable. He's not some fuddy duddy who paid his dues over 50 years to get the nomination.
Posted by: russ | January 23, 2008 at 06:07 PM
The media likes McCain because he's accessible to reporters, and he's a wimpy makes-deals-with-Democrats Republican and not a hardcore guy like Newt.
Posted by: Half Sigma | January 23, 2008 at 06:10 PM
I guess you haven't been to Newark.
Just passed through. Is it worse than the Bronx, which by my recollection looked like it had been hit by a nuke?
Posted by: Gamma Man | January 23, 2008 at 06:13 PM
Gamma Man: "Is it worse than the Bronx, which by my recollection looked like it had been hit by a nuke?"
The Bronx has the potential to make a comeback because it has better subway access to Manhattan than any other outer borough.
Posted by: Half Sigma | January 23, 2008 at 06:49 PM
Check RealClearPolitics- Romney is already ahead by 59 delegates to McCain's 36.
If McCain loses Florida, presumably to Romney, then its the opposite of a brokered convention being likely- Romney would be moving to a sew up.
If McCain loses "front runner" then he is gone. I have let to meet anyone who is truly interested in McCain. He would be Dole 2008 but without the humor.
Posted by: Turambar | January 23, 2008 at 08:07 PM
I predict that a Draft Newt movement will catch steam
You should study the bylaws of the GOP a little better, then. You need to win at least 5 states in order to be considered as a nominee - the GOP process does not allow for some Johnny-come-lately to just jump in.
But even if it were possible, the notion that this would be a good idea just shows that you are a geek who is mainly concerned with policy. To you, Newt may seem like an intelligent, slightly irascible policy wonk who is right on all the important issues. To most of America, he's a smug, self-satisfied little fuck without any compassion or integrity (see: Contract With America). Electability: zero.
Posted by: bbartlog | January 23, 2008 at 08:34 PM
Dole without the humor?
Dole was funny?
Posted by: russ | January 23, 2008 at 08:57 PM
"Could it happen? Could New Gingrich wind up being the Republican nominee?"
Oh please........
Posted by: Mark | January 23, 2008 at 09:20 PM
Even if it were possible, picking Newt would be a disaster for the Republicans. Right now Hillary's sky-high negatives are her biggest drawback - even a fair number of Democrats dislike or mistrust her. Newt's negatives are almost as high as hers - nominating him would eliminate the GOP's major advantage.
Posted by: Ned | January 23, 2008 at 09:26 PM
What's wrong with McCain-Feingold? You think corporations should be able to buy politicians?
Posted by: SFG | January 23, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Yes, the Republican Party is going to thank its candidates, its volunteers, and the people who poured hundreds of millions of dollars into its campaigns by nominating someone who wasn't around for any of it.
As for McC-F, corporations don't have to buy politicians. By and large, politicians and corporate executives are both part of the ruling class and have extremely similar objectives.
Posted by: Joshua Holmes | January 23, 2008 at 11:12 PM
McCain is loved by the MSM, because he is the democratic (open boarders) neocon (more war, more war) corrupted insider (Keating 5) candidate of the Rep party.
Plus, the old man would be easier to beat in a general election than Romney because he is decrepidly old and untelegenic, was never too bright even when young, has a famously explosive and uncontrolled grumpy temper (call it banana but it's not shamnesty, I'll never forgive the vietnamese, iraq "safe as indiana farmers market" bullheaded, etc) and tries to use "straight talk" to hide his lack of vision, passion and charisma. The middle is not going to get off their backsides to pull a lever for this Dole lite.
Posted by: | January 23, 2008 at 11:23 PM
On McCain
* Son and grandson of Admirals, he was an arrogant little shit who could never stand taking orders from anyone (officers, teachers, senior cadets - said it was "Bullshit") - got over 100 discipline demerits for it
* Despite his privedged birth, he finished a very dim 5th from bottom in his class at the Naval Academy
* Runs second to Rudy for messed up personal life, extramartial affairs, number of wives and other questionable character issues
* Married into money on the 2nd or 3rd wife, in-laws and wife brought him election as carpetbagger in AZ along with later biz friends like John Keating
* As one of the Keating 5 Senators who took money from Keating to help block investigations into Keating ripping off taxpayers with a $1.1 billon S&L fraud, he escaped with "ethical" warnings with his political career barely intact
* Despite his "image" as a clean gov advocate with McCain-Feingold Reform Act, he's the candidate with the more lobbyiest and fundraisers in 2008
* Co-authored the the Kennedy-McCain Shamesty bill giveing all illegals the amesty to stay in the country and immediately become citizen after a few thousand dollar fine
* McCain is a democrate in republican clothing, although he has put on an tough guy act recently (2001-02 6th most liberal rep but 2005-06 2nd most conservative by voteview.com - not counting his uber liberal open boarders push in 2007)
* Regarding McCain's George Allen like arrogance and big mouth that will kill him with the liberal press and most Americans:
- McCain openly used the term "gook", in reference to his Vietnamese torturers During the 2000 presidential campaign, he repeatedly refused to apologize for his continued use of the term. Late in the primary season.. vowed to no longer use the term in public
- On April 18, 2007, McCain was asked a question about possible military action against Iran. He responded by singing “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” to the melody of the Beach Boys' song "Barbara Ann"
- On May 18, 2007, McCain swore at fellow Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) after Cornyn expressed concerns about the number of appeals that illegal immigrants could receive. According to multiple sources, Cornyn told McCain, "Wait a second here. I've been sitting in here for all of these negotiations and you just parachute in here on the last day. You're out of line," to which McCain replied, "[Expletive] you! I know more about this than anyone else in the room."
Posted by: | January 24, 2008 at 01:43 AM
Some good comments here. McCain does look like a self-centered guy who just happens to like the military. He doesn't really "get" the instinctive conservatism, the individualism, that is so special to America. He also doesn't seem very likable or bright. He doesn't understand free-market economics. He has an instinct to regulate. He seems rude and bellicose.
Fred Thompson was way better, but unelectable. I, too, now hope for Romney-Thompson as the best we're gonna get. At first I thought Romney was a slick asshole, but at least he is very smart and understands and fully embraces free markets.
I don't really get the Mormon thing but that must be because I am Dutch. Orson Scott Card is a Mormon and he writes good books so I'll forgive Romney.
Huckabee is a disaster and I would even lean towards a (god forbid) democrat in the case he would be the candidate. Rudy doesn't seem very intelligent, and he is also overly bellicose.
Sucks that Thompson couldn't make his case. Being "lazy" isn't a bad quality for a politician. If we should fear anything it is overly ambitious politicians.
Posted by: conservative of progress | January 24, 2008 at 02:07 AM
Dole without the humor?
Dole was funny?
Great Presidential Wit
Posted by: Turambar | January 24, 2008 at 08:44 AM