End of the U.S. in 2010?

The most emailed article at the Wall Street Journal: Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

He ways that in 2010 there will be a civil war caused by "mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation."

But wait, won't Obama save us all? "Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama 'can work miracles,' he wrote. 'But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.'"

I don't buy into this scenario. (1) Americans are have become too wussy to ever take up arms and fight each other the way we did back in the 1860s; and (2) why on Earth would California become part of China?

Comments

[PO]

This is why I don't trust Russians; they think like everyone is as savage as they are.

[Peter]

A former KGB analyst. Nice guy, for sure.

[as]

A bit off-topic, but the end of India is plausible.

[Richard H]

"(2) why on Earth would California become part of China? "

Ha, forget that, imagine PC, multicultural Canada engaging in territorial expansion!

2010? Too soon, in my very humble opinion. And his map of how the US would look after the dissolution is just a bit too pat(I bet he read the Philip K. Dick book "The Man in the High Tower" and cribbed some ideas from there. A great book BTW, a fantastic piece of alternative historical fiction...I highly recommend it).

But you don't need no stinkin' Commie KGB agent to tell you this stuff. "Civil War II" by Thomas Chittum may provides some more insight into what may go down. An interesting and disturbing read. But nobody really knows, obviously. However, I do agree with Panarin's reasoning of what will cause the dissolution of America. Just look around. While speculation of what will happen is fun, people should be preparing for the inevitable. Economic dislocation is already upon us. The next step will be civil unrest. Prepare accordingly. The hour is late...And if anyone cares, there are plenty of threads over here on the subject of preparing nad US collapse:

http://www.ar15.com/forums/board.html?b=10

Hit "Survival Discussions"

And oddly enough, some people who think I'm a gun freak(and I am) who spends too much cash and time on boomsticks and ammo suddenly are interested in firearms and want to go the the range with me!

[Wade Nichols]

I think some of his predictions are way off the mark (the Chinese will seize California? It's more likely California will become part of Mexico, does this guy know anything about demographics?), but his central idea about the eventual disintegration of the U.S. is very plausible.

We all take for granted that the U.S. appears to be the exception to separatist notions, that we're somehow different from all the other nations that have split apart - Pakistan and India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Soviet Union, etc. etc. How about the separatist movement in Belgium? What about closer to home - the separatist movement in Quebec by the French speakers?

But does anyone really believe that the U.S. is truly a "city upon a hill", an exception to the world tendency towards separation? Perhaps we're simply biding our time as an "outlier", and eventually we will revert to the norm.

The idea of America disintegrating may sound absurd, but so did the idea of a black guy becoming President. In the early 1900's, many people thought the idea of another war was absurd. Then WWI happened, and they said that was "the war to end all wars". Then we had WWII, Korean War, Vietnam, etc. etc.

All it would take to kick start the separatist urge in the U.S. is some sort of "Franz Ferdinand incident" (Note: I don't advocate killing rock bands). See Nassim Nicholas Taleb for discussion on those nasty "Black Swans" that tend to creep up when you least expect them.

"Americans are have become too wussy to ever take up arms and fight each other the way we did back in the 1860s"

See Mark Steyn. Whites are the wusses, according to him. Other demographic groups have numbers of youth who would be willing to fight - ¿Que pasa?

At the end of the day, is separatism really that bad? Wouldn't you want to live in a country without guys like Vim?

[Manfred]

This plays into the 2012 "end of the world" Mayan cult that is growing into the next Y2K obsession. The world is supposed to end in 2012 according to the ancient prophecy.

Watch and see how many other groups jump onto the bandwagon of doom.

[Ned]

Russia never changes. The Tsars had their secret police, the Communists had their KGB (or NKVD or Cheka) and now ex-KGB thug Putin has the FSB. I don't know whether Panarin really believes this stuff or not, but it doesn't really matter. With the tight state control of the media, the government can tell the ordinary Russians all sorts of nonsense and never be challenged, at least in Russia. Just as in the days of the USSR, the leadership can put forth all sorts of silly lies (like the USA was always on the verge of a Communist revolution or that living standards were much better in soviet states than in capitalist ones). I will never forget the words of one of my college Russian teachers (a native Russian-speaker) - "Russia is a cruel land, soaked in blood. It will never change."

The violence will begin as gangs and rioters vs. cops, but will then progress to a racial thing, as people try to defend civilized areas from thugs.

Eventually, localities will reorganize to ethnic boundaries, and local police forces will defend their enclaves. In areas where the enclave is effectively the entire state, the states may begin to talk about secession.

[Mark]

"Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control."

As if the Canadians would permit the Russians to expand right up to their doorstep like that.

[slwerner]

Wade Nichols – “It's more likely California will become part of Mexico, does this guy know anything about demographics?”

And, doesn’t he know about MeCHa and their push for Aztlan?

“At the end of the day, is separatism really that bad? Wouldn't you want to live in a country without guys like Vim? “

I assume that your making something of a light-hearted jab at Vim.

Guys like Vim aren’t the problem (as I’m sure you already know). Even though it’s difficult to find intellectual common ground with him, Vim is a rational and intelligent man – not the sort who’s likely to act-out irrationally out of racial hatred and malice. If only more black people were like him.

Oh, I’m sure they’d still hate and resent us just for being born white – if only they wouldn’t randomly attack, rape, and kill us for that reason.

[Wade Nichols]

Related (somewhat), Robert D. Kaplan in The Atlantic on "Those Greek Riots", a good primer:

"Pay close attention to Greece; at a time of world-wide economic upheaval, it might eerily presage disturbances elsewhere in 2009"

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812u/greek-riots

[The Undiscovered Jew]

I think the multicultural expirement will collapse in the next few years - long before whites become a minority - because of genetics. Declines in the price of gene sequencing will make it easier to discover the genes for intelligence. Along with this knowledge we will find that races vary in terms of average levels of intelligence.

Once we accept that races have different levels of intelligence, the whole race-liberal narrative and the justification for racial liberalism dissolves.

"Whites are the wusses, according to him. Other demographic groups have numbers of youth who would be willing to fight - ¿Que pasa?"

Mestizos and Latin American Indians are terrible at fighting. This is the same race of people who were conquered by a couple hundred drunken Spanish sailors. In a real fight, they would fold like a cheap tent, regardless of their birthrate.

"As if the Canadians would permit the Russians to expand right up to their doorstep like that."

Canada: a good army, very high quality people who know the land, but not enough heavy stuff. They play nice(a really big negative when fighting Russians or muslims for that matter)

Russia: large army with so-so conscripts, but also some tough, seasoned units who rack up body counts, lots of stuff(much equipment sucks though), and they play dirty and aren't uptight about innocent people getting wasted, being nice to their enemies(look at Grozny), or concerned over hand-wringing editorials in the NYT.

Winner is Russia, but with lots of casaulties due to people like these(who of course, got fucked over in something worthy of what the US military would do and does to their own):

http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/article.jsp?content=20060515_126689_126689

I'm thinking a "Winter War" repeat...

[Brutus]

End of the US is of course the endgame to this dangerous chess match we're engaged in against the baser NAMs (and that does not include Vim, Wade). The real question is: How much parasitic "change" will all productive races and classes tolerate in a once-thriving republic?

I would have no problem letting the mediocrities rule their own nest.

Check please!

[nobody]

What exactly does the author mean by "moral degradation"? We'll all be painting our faces and start coming up with "kick ass" villain names for ourselves and devising ways to kill each other? We'll be dressing like Tupac Shakur or the Trenchcoat Mafia? Cheating on our spouses? Losing faith in God and people? Shoplifting?

All of the above?

[Peter]

America is not going to disintegrate in 2010. There will be no civil war or massive rioting in the streets. All this panty piddling paranoia is just crap.

[Duke]

It seems overly aggressive to predict that this will happen within a year. In order for Americans to resort to taking up arms against one another, starvation/hunger would have to be a reality for millions of former middle-class people. I don't think we've reached that point yet.

If a scenario like this does play out in the future, I don't envision a "blue vs. gray" type of civil war. The violence would be disorganized and guerrilla-style, centering on important natural resources, border disputes, etc.

The prediction of a less centralized US is an interesting one. The map in the article might even represent a decent stab at how it might break down in, say, twenty years or so. But I don't see why these regional fragments of the US would pledge allegiance to foreign powers (Mexico? Canada?). Better would be to form an affiliation among the regions, including Canada and Mexico, which in turn would end up creating a political entity that more closely resembles the EU.

[Patrik]

{In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.}

Project much? Anti-american much?

This simply highlights just how stupid, small and zero-sum, and moronic Europeans are when it comes to matters Americain (presumably the majority of the aforementioned delegates).

The Europeans would be fucked if the USA were to disintegrate, this is the last thing they should be cheering. Unless, of course, they want their children to speak Russian.

Posted by: The Undiscovered Jew | December 29, 2008 at 02:37 PM

I hope you are right about the multi-culti experiment collapsing in a short few years, but I doubt it. Pinning your hopes on cheap gene sequencing and rational thinking by liberals, the gov't and business(not much evidence of that as far as I can see)) in this country is dangerous(especially with liberals) for your health and welfare, as well as that of those you love.
And as for not taking our enemies seriously, you had better. Don't underestimate these people. The Spanish almost lost to the Tlaxcalans (and allied with them because they were some tough fuckers) and got run out of Tenochtitlan(Noche Triste).
And the fight won't be "real." It will be a nasty guerilla type (un)civil conflict that has the potential to make what happened in places such as the former Yugoslavia look like an ice cream social. These people have been waging war against us for decades.

"America is not going to disintegrate in 2010. There will be no civil war or massive rioting in the streets. All this panty piddling paranoia is just crap."

More whistling in the dark, Peter. I don't blame you though. You live on LI and are probably fucked in most cases, so keep telling yourself that this is all bullshit and everything will be fine(or you could do the smart thing and actually start preparing. It doesn't cost much time or $ and lots of it is actually fun. But that means that you would have to be outside and learn something new, so fuck that I guess...) You had better buy a boat.

[Richard H]

"Russia never changes. The Tsars had their secret police, the Communists had their KGB (or NKVD or Cheka) and now ex-KGB thug Putin has the FSB. I don't know whether Panarin really believes this stuff or not, but it doesn't really matter. With the tight state control of the media, the government can tell the ordinary Russians all sorts of nonsense and never be challenged, at least in Russia. Just as in the days of the USSR, the leadership can put forth all sorts of silly lies (like the USA was always on the verge of a Communist revolution or that living standards were much better in soviet states than in capitalist ones). "

So what? Our government doesn't tell lies?

Feminism and egiltarianism are state doctrines. If you don't believe me, check out the humanities departement at any major college in this country. According to a recent poll, the two most famous Americans in history who weren't president among schoolchildren are MLK and Rosa Parks. Our entire education system is a PC brainwashing camp.

The Russian government isn't in the process of destroying its people, which is more than you can say for the Western democracies. And the MSM hates them for it.

[slwerner]

Patrick - "The Europeans would be fucked if the USA were to disintegrate, this is the last thing they should be cheering. Unless, of course, they want their children to speak Russian."

Excellent point!

I, myself, am all for the disullution of NATO and the complete pullout of US forces from the European continent (save, perhaps, Italy, where they still seem to appreciate the US and what we've done for them). US bases are a financial boon that we should NOT give to those ingrates, nor should we foot the bill for their defense any longer.

[Richard H]

"The Europeans would be fucked if the USA were to disintegrate, this is the last thing they should be cheering. Unless, of course, they want their children to speak Russian."

Better than Arabic.

[Peter]

"More whistling in the dark, Peter. I don't blame you though. You live on LI and are probably fucked in most cases, so keep telling yourself that this is all bullshit and everything will be fine(or you could do the smart thing and actually start preparing. It doesn't cost much time or $ and lots of it is actually fun. But that means that you would have to be outside and learn something new, so fuck that I guess...) You had better buy a boat."

Better idea: I'll send you a tinfoil hat and a case of adult diapers. What's your size?

Posted by: Peter | December 29, 2008 at 04:00 PM

Yeah, you're right. Better for you to focus on finding some team sports to get involved in out there on LI. And watching more football so that you won't be accused of being a queer is probably something you should do as well. Silly me for learning something new every chance I get, saving money, enjoying the outdoors and planning for a very likely future. How about them Jets?

[Patrick]

This isn't even batshit crazy, its just fucking stupid. There is not a 55% chance that America will "disintegrate" in 2010. The United States is not suffering the massive political instability that would be absolutely necessary for such a scenario to even be remotely plausible.

A country doesn't go from having a free and fair election to total chaos in 2 years, even in the throws of an economic depression.

I challenge all of the people here who are cheering on this ridiculous scenario and predicting rampant widespread violence, please come back in two years time and admit how fucking dumb you were and refrain from further commentary thereafter.

[Brutus]

"So now let me suggest another even less welcome Big Idea for the rest of the media to get around to in the next several months:

"The Crash is, at a fundamental level, a readjustment to demographic change. America’s immigration-driven shifting ethnic balance means that the average human capital of U.S. residents is now lower than was assumed."--Steve Sailer from today's Vdare column

And if we continue to pretend that such "demographic change" won't be a disaster for the cognitively prepared, I propose mailing tour taxes to NAM.com

[Jack]

Not in 2010, but the US is definitely slowly disintegrating for the reasons stated. I think in 10 to 20 years we will start to see true separatist movements starting. But the map shown is kind of comical... Utah owned by China? Kentucky and Tennessee in Europe? I could imagine the US splitting at some point, with the Southwest going to Mexico and maybe the Northeast splitting from the rest of the country.

[Brick Oven Bill]

The Army War College is thinking about it too:

'As a community, the defense establishment swears to protect and defend the constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic. DoD’s role in combating “domestic enemies” has never been thoughtfully examined. Thus, there is perhaps no greater source of strategic shock for DoD than operationalizing that component of the oath of service in a widespread domestic emergency that entails rapid dissolution of public order in all or significant parts of the United States.'

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=890

Personally, I think that the example the Founders set is very powerful. If there was to be an economic collapse and the military had to take over, they would likely turn the power over to a Representative Republic with voter eligibility similar to that at the time of our founding.

In 1789, only one in four American males were eligible to vote because of property and tax requirements. America will become stronger in the 21st Century as we are energy and food independent. North America has seventy percent of the world’s petroleum resources, mostly in the form of shale oil kerogen.

"A country doesn't go from having a free and fair election to total chaos in 2 years, even in the throws of an economic depression.

I challenge all of the people here who are cheering on this ridiculous scenario and predicting rampant widespread violence, please come back in two years time and admit how fucking dumb you were and refrain from further commentary thereafter."

What part about 2010 being too soon didn't you get?

[Morgan Ballard]

He may have been right on some of his predictions, but even a blind hog finds a acorn now and then.

[Wade Nichols]

"I challenge all of the people here who are cheering on this ridiculous scenario and predicting rampant widespread violence, please come back in two years time and admit how fucking dumb you were and refrain from further commentary thereafter."

No one here says this will happen in 2 years, the Russian professor makes that prediction. Contact him about making your wager for the 2010 scenario. I wouldn't place that bet either.

How far out ahead are you willing to bet, and how confident are you that the present day U.S. will be the same in say 2050? How about 2100?

Not so confident now, are we?

[Dan Kurt]

Re: Civil War in next few years.

Read about John Titor. He predicts a Civil War in the USA. The book is: John Titor A Time Traveler's Tale (Paperback) by The John Titor Foundation Inc (Author)
Amazon 2 used from $400.00 1 collectible from $1,000.00. Paperback: 174 pages
Publisher: Instantpublisher.com (December 1, 2003)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1591964369
ISBN-13: 978-1591964360

Here is the URL on John Titor [www.johntitor.com/]

Dan Kurt

[Stopped Clock]

This reminds me ironically of a professor who predicted that by 2015 Russia would split into eight separate nations along geographical lines:

http://thegreatsleep.com/img/8russias.jpg

Russians laughed at the prediction, noting that the boundaries completely ignored cultural divisions such as the conflicts between the various tribes in the Caucasus.

Sorry, I can't find a link to the original article, and all I saved was the image.

[SFG]

Jack's right. The guy's not totally off base but he doesn't totally get our country. He may have the right idea but he's drawn the borders in the wrong places. Most likely the standard census demographic regions would be closer to any real four-way split.

And no, I don't think a few years of recession are going to split up the country. We've got way too far to go before we're starving. I'm a pessimist, but there's reasonable pessimism, and there's this stuff that's just stupid. Most likely we'll just slide into a depression and everyone will be unhappy for a decade, like Japan.

[SFG]

If I may nerd out for a moment, we ain't immune to damage, but we've got a lot more hitpoints left.

[Stopped Clock]

Here's the original Russian story, on the off chance that someone here speaks Russian and is curious:

http://www.newsru.com/world/11may2004/kolt.html

[kurt9]

The breakup scenario is a joke. First, Canada is as likely to break up as the U.S. Second, the South is not about to go under Mexican influence. It would be independent as the "Christian States of America" - the CSA. Canada would break up into three parts: Quebec, the central provinces, and the Western provinces (Alberta, BC). Yeah, California and the Southwest could be part of the "Republica del Norte", but the Northwest and Mountain states would join with Alberta, BC, and Alaska to become "Cascadia", which would no doubt have significant connections to the East Asian countries (Japan, China). Perhaps the central provinces of Canada would join with the Northern mid-west and rust belt to make a new country.

Why on Earth would Alaska become a part of Russia again? What does Russia offer that Alaskans would be interested in?

My break-up scenario makes more sense, politically and economically, than our Russian friend's does.

[Gamma Man]

What the Russian guy is trying to say is that in the end Russia will outlive the USA. He's probably right, but we don't know when or how the breakup and/or dissolution of the USA will happen.
Eventually, all countries disappear sooner or later.

[Jody]

While a breakup passes the coffee house banter test (silly, but I would entertain the discussion), the post-breakup map is just nuts. TN & KY & SC to Europe? AL/MS/GA to Mexico? Utah joining CA WA and OR?

Clearly, he has no idea of American demographics.

[kurt9]

The idea that the U.S. will break up in less than 2 years is a joke. The idea that it could break up in the next 40-50 years is certainly plausible. However, our Russian friend is leaving out the part about who Russia is even more economically and ethnically screwed than the U.S. is. Russia does have "break-away" places like Chechnya and Dagistan. Russia also has a 15-18% muslim population as well.

Russia will either breakup or become something different long before the U.S. does.

Is the breakup of the U.S. necessarily a bad thing? It depends on whether you think the Federal government is a promoter or an inhibitor of technological and economic growth. Perhaps the break up of the U.S. and the rest of North America into more and smaller competing entities will actually foster more competition and thus technological and economic growth. We all know that competition is better than monopoly for lower prices, better products, and growth in general. Since government is a form of monopoly, if it is broken up into competing entities, the resultant competition will be better for growth as well.

Our Russian friend also forgets that the U.S. was originally a collection of independent states and that it might partially but not completely unbundle to become something more like the Articles of Confederation (which predated our current republic). An unbundling of Russia is more likely to be a complete disintegration.

A key activity will be to ensure that our current constitutional protections of liberty (first 10 amendments) is incorporated into the respective state constitutions or into the constitutions of the new political entities.

[kurt9]

I can think of at least 4 more "rights" that should be protected in the successor entities to the U.S. federal government.

1) Morphological freedom - Transhumanists talk about this a lot. This is the right to modify one's self in any manner providing it does not cause harm to others. The definition of "harm" must be real. It cannot be psychological or cultural.

2) The state cannot define any activity as a "crime" that does not involve the intentional harm of another person. Victimless crimes are prohibited by the constitution.

3) Regulatory approvals (such as FDA approval of new compounds or medical treatments) must be purely ministerial. If a new compound passes an objectively defined test regimen, the approval is automatic. The regulatory agency has no discretionary power at all.

4) Elimination of licensing requirements for practicing medicine. This was actually promoted by Ben Franklin in the original constitutional convention. He called it Medical Freedom. The only reason why the delegates voted it down was because they thought the regulation of medicine was so silly that no one would ever do it.

[gig]

A 1929 like depression may make the russian´s scenario true. In think that Paul Samuelson once said that America was bounded together by it´s prosperity. I also thought that americans, even the poorer ones, are to wealthy to engage in a civil war.

But a depression changes all that. 1929 + 30%NAM in the population could cause a revolution. But the russian´s map is ridiculous. I imagine a Punjab1948 like scenario, where a region with a highly mixed population is cleaned so that we end up with few "blocks" of homogeneity.