Bad precedent in Honduras

This Honduras deal sets a bad precedent, because it says that America supports the existing leader of a country, even if he acts against his country’s constitution and tries to set himself up as president-for-life. America, led by Obama, is rewarding the bad guy. Reagan would have supported the pro-American Micheletti government which kicked him out.

It remains to be seen if anything bad comes of this. Bad would be violence, Zelaya retaliating against the people who kicked him out, or Zelaya not leaving his office at the end of January.

Comments

[ironrailsironweights.wordpress.com]

Americans are scared s***less of Muslim but don't fear Hondurans at all. As a result, no one cares about Zelaya. In contrast, news of a terrorist bombing at the central camel market in Yemen will get far more attention.

Peter

[Trumwill]

There seems to be some ambiguity in the situation. Some articles are saying that Zelaya will return to power unless congress "blocks him" while others are saying that both Zelaya has agreed to abide by whatever congress decides.

The distinction is important.

In the case of the former, if congress chooses not to reinstate Zelaya, we will be right where we left off and the 11/29 election will be considered invalid. In the case of the latter, if congress decides that Zelaya should not be returned to power, the elections will be valid.

It seems to me that Michelleti agreed to the latter, but the international community seems have decided it's the former. Unfortunately, it seems the international community's willingness to disregard the elections and continue sanctions gives it quite a bit of leverage and it looks like their interpretation will win out. Either the vote goes their way or it was an invalid vote.

[Kimberlite]

What business is it of ours? And I could give a crap what Reagan would have done.

[Brick Oven Bill]

I suspect that the reason President Obama is supporting President Zelaya is that President Obama is deeply uncomfortable about the precedent of the Honduran military stepping in to enforce the very clear provisions of the Honduran Constitution.

[Henceforth Danforth]

I hate to be one of those "me too!" posts, but Brick Oven Bill nailed it. It's the same reason the mainstream media is having fits over the Oath Keepers.
And of course Kimberlite is correct too - it's none of our business, Constitutionally speaking. But neither is 98% of the other things the US government does outside its borders.

[Larry, San Francisco]

The reason that it is "our" business is that the only reason Zelaya got back in power is because we (Obama, Clinton and friends) forced the Hondurans to take him back. The idea that we would put back in power some one who is allied with our enemies (or do you think Hugo Chavez is our friend who is just misunderstood) is pretty amazing even if it is in a country that doesn't mean squat. Now allied with the serial statutory rapist trying to reestablish himiself as dictator for life in Nicaragua (http://www.libertadlatina.org/LA_Nicaragua_Daniel_Ortega.htm) we can have a whole slew of corrupt, crappy anti-american regimes down there. I think it would be in our interest (at least a little bit) to have corrupt crappy pro-american regimes there instead. Obviously, the Obama administration disagrees.

[HS: Indeed, all we had to do was NOTHING in order to keep Zelaya out and a U.S. friendly government in: just maintain our business-as-usual ties. But we went out of our way to cut off diplomatic and economic ties to put someone who doesn't like us back in power.]

[MM]

"even if he acts against his country’s constitution and tries to set himself up as president-for-life."

There is any proof of that?

Remember that in the referendum that he tried do do, there no reference to abolish the term limits.

The question was "Do you agree with the installation of a fourth ballot box during the 2009 general elections so that the people can decide on the calling of a national constituent assembly? Yes or no."

Even if the answer was yes, the new constitution only will be drafted in the mandate of the next president, then, even if the new constitution removed the limits tp the reelection, it could not be used to Zelaya to perpetuate himself in power.

[HS: Zelaya was following the exact same roadmap as other dictators. He was ordered not to go ahead with the election by his country's legal institutions, and he disobeyed the laws and had his supporters steal the ballots. Only his own supporters would have voted (given that the election was declared illegal), creating the illusion of a mandate to keep him in power.]

[rightwingnut]

Among latin american political journals, it's been said Zelaya will be back in power by November 10th, with elections to ratify (or oust him) soon to follow.

In essence, he is going to get away with what he intended all along, to get the opportunity to lengthen his stay in power, by holding an election one way or another.

But you are correct that the power play has been made by the american government, specifically by Thomas Shannon, who heads the department of state for latin american affairs.

Its well known he's been a busy-bee negotiating with the Honduran congress Zelaya's return (who will likely then call a general election). And again, these were Zelaya's intentions all along, to let congress hold YET another election to keep him in power. Except the supreme court and the military stepped in to oust him.

So what Thomas Shannon has done is 'twist' the hand of 128 congressmen, specifically a man called Porfirio Lobo
who is the second political force in Honduras and is currently in congress. Who of course also wants an election to be held, since he is likely to be in it!

This will allow Zelaya back into the country, inevitably followed by a 'legit' election to calm things down, but with Lobo being an additional candidate.

60+ congressmen belong to the same political party as Zelaya and Micheleti, but that leaves a lot of room to work with, including 50+ which are headed by the party that backs Porfirio Lobo.

Like most banana republics, I would guess Thomas only has had to hand out a few business visas, business permits in the miami area or scholarships.

Elections will be held, but only with the help of Porfirio Lobo who is a pawn that wants a shot at the presidency himself( but its a longshot he will win).

I don't believe the U.S government intentions are to back Zelaya directly, though its automatically doing so with its actions. Its just trying to avoid a power vacuum in the region.

[Carlos]

Very impressively said "Rightwingnut"... There is a small scale lesson to be learned about US foreign policy somewhere within The Honduran situation. I am Honduran And reside in Miami. I supported Obama's candidacy And i hope dont ever have to regret it. I am not sure what H. Clinton And The Obama reps. have done to help this situation, i do know however what they have done to help themselves And to help "improve" the American foreign policy image. They say they wont condone The overthrowing Of a democratically elected government. They will not say where they were when Zelaya was preparing for the referéndum vote. US has always considered Honduras an allied, a very small allied, but an allied nonetheless. So it is politically correct not to support The overthrowing, but not to support The contry when it needed The help in preventing this From happening. Zelaya was sneaking ínto yet another regime And our big brother The US will not admit they were falling behind.