The future of gay marriage

Gay marriage has been defeated in 31 consecutive popular votes. Steve Sailer writes, “Yet, you know we're going to end up with gay marriage anyway, no matter what the voters want.”

The elites who control the Democratic Party strongly support gay marriage even though it’s not uniformly supported among Democratic voters. The Democratic Party is much more a party controlled by the elites than is the Republican Party (which is not necessarily a good thing for Republicans if people like Joe the Plumber and Sarah Palin start running things).

This difference between the Democratic and Republican parties demonstrate the superior power of the leftist elite. The leftist elite is able to use Democratic votes to enact policies that the Democratic voters don’t actually want. In contrast, the conservative elite panders to the dumb people in order to win elections.

In any event, give Hollywood another ten years of showing us cool homosexual characters in TV shows and movies, and gay marriage will have more than 50% popular support.

Comments

[Turambar]

"which is not necessarily a good thing for Republicans if people like Joe the Plumber and Sarah Palin start running things"

I think you have to admit its a good thing to have Sarah Palin raising money and stumping for candidates. Who is the equivalent moderate Republican that excites the base? No one is paying to see Bloomberg speak. I think you need to reassess on Palin.

"In any event, give Hollywood another ten years of showing us cool homosexual characters in TV shows and movies, and gay marriage will have more than 50% popular support."

Boy is that ever true! Operation Philadelphia Phase 3.

[Peter A]

It's pretty simple to see where this is going. Most voters don't want gay marriage, but also don't really care that much. Like me. I'll vote against it, sure, but won't get off my fat ass to stop it if it comes. The small minority of people who actually want it is larger and more committed than the active minority of people who will fight to stop it. So in the end it will win. This is also how most pro-feminist legislation gets passed IMHO.

You forgot to mention that the Republican elite pushes pro immigration and pro free trade measures through on bascially the same principles. Also the Republican elite is not really opposed to gay marriage, which helps the Democrats on this issue, and many of the richer more cosmopolitan Republican donors, especially in NY, actively support gay marriage.

[JewishAtheist]

Democrats are about evenly split on the issue, but younger voters are much more for it than older ones.

You know it's going to happen. I know it's going to happen. Sailer knows it's going to happen. Don't you conservatives ever get tired on being on the wrong side of history?

In 20-30 years, conservatives are going to be pretending that they were always for gay marriage.

[sabril]

I kinda disagree. Is there any Latin country which recognizes gay marriage? If not, then we should expect gay marriage to fall into greater disfavor as the percentage of Hispanics in the population increases.

I'm not a political analyst, but it seems to me that Hispanics (and even Blacks) tend to be somewhat conservative socially but vote democratic because they like getting handouts.

In fact, I read somewhere that gay marriage lost in the vote in California in large part because a lot of blacks came out to vote for Obama.

Anyway, it seems to me that gay marriage is a bit of a horse race between (1) SWPL culture spreading among whites; and (2) growing numbers of Hispanics and religious whites.

Eventually, (2) will win out over (1) so basically there is a window of opportunity for gay marriage which will start closing sooner or later. If it's not already closing, that is.

I wonder how the Wise Latina would rule on gay marriage.

[HS: Hispanics will be subject to Hollywood telling them that gays are cool.]

[Alkibiades]

Looks like a repeal of the gay marriage ban in Oregon is gearing up for the 2012 election. It's already been up held twice. Stay tuned.

[DaveinHackensack]

"The leftist elite is able to use Democratic votes to enact policies that the Democratic voters don’t actually want."

Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, minimum wage laws, etc. all seem pretty popular with Democratic voters. You could argue that many Dem voters vote Dem in spite of Dem pols' positions on cultural issues, while many GOP voters vote GOP because of GOP pols' positions on cultural issues, and despite their positions on bread and butter issues.

[bjk]

Maybe someone could answer this for me.

The biggest problem with gay marriage is two married men in a house with a young daughter -- not a good scenario. I'm sure Chloe in Flipping Out is perfectly safe with her two dads, but I still think her odds are less than optimal.

Isn't that the biggest fear about gay marriage?

[DaveinHackensack]

"The biggest problem with gay marriage is two married men in a house with a young daughter -- not a good scenario."

You're worried that they'd take her shopping too often?

[HS: Yeah, the bigger fear is two gay men raising a young boy. But since gay men, like straightmen, can't get pregnant, where's the kid doing to come from?

I'm against gay marriage because the current system of male-female marriage works just fine. This big push to allow gays to marry each other, when stright people are dropping out from marriage entirely, is weird.]

[JewishAtheist]

bjk:

The alternative to gay marriage is gay cohabitation.

Why do gay marriage opponents always seem to think that if gay marriage is illegal, gays will magically turn straight and enter into straight marriages? The gay relationships and families already exist -- the only question is whether they are granted the same rights as straight ones.

[sabril]

"HS: Hispanics will be subject to Hollywood telling them that gays are cool."

Blacks have been subject to the same propoganda and are still very much anti-homosexual in their beliefs.

[JewishAtheist]

"HS: Hispanics will be subject to Hollywood telling them that gays are cool."

It's actually a lot simpler than that. Not just Hollywood (although certainly Hollywood) but also increased connectivity is telling Americans that gays are PEOPLE. When gay people were all in the closet (or in San Fransisco) it was easy to pretend that gay people are just perverts and freaks and are clearly THEM and not US. Once they started coming out and once Hollywood started showing them, straight people started realizing that gay people are just people who like people of the same gender, no big deal.

Whether you personally know someone who is gay is a huge factor in your political stance. I mean Dick Fucking CHENEY supports gay marriage.

Yes, there are some people who know gay people and still oppose gay marriage. They are typically either very religious (most common) or very low in compassion and empathy (common among the HBD set.)

[Peter A]

The effective Hollywood gay propaganda is usually in SWPL movies and TV shows - "Philadelphia","6 Feet Under" for example, or "Glee". It's hard to pack effective propaganda for a lifestyle into the action movies and dumb comedies that Hispanics and Blacks watch. It's also true that lower IQ people are actually MORE resistant to cultural propaganda than smarter people, maybe because they tend to think less abstractly and just deal with the realities of the life they see around them. This was true in Stalin's Russia and it's true in the US.

[HS: “IQ people are actually MORE resistant to cultural propaganda than smarter people”

This is true. High IQ people are better at figuring what the cultural norms are, and are more motivated to conform to them.]

[DaveinHackensack]

"Yeah, the bigger fear is two gay men raising a young boy."

By the same logic, do you consider it a problem if a single father raises a young girl -- or if a married father spends time with his daughters when his wife isn't around? Everyone isn't a pedophile; if they were, we'd have to scrap traditional marriage too, and have kids raised by eunuchs or something.

"But since gay men, like straightmen, can't get pregnant, where's the kid doing to come from?"

Adoption, or by donating sperm to a lesbian friend or another woman. If you watched Showtime's two gay series, Queer as Folk or The L-Word, you'd be familiar with this, as it was a recurring topic on both shows.

"Why do gay marriage opponents always seem to think that if gay marriage is illegal, gays will magically turn straight and enter into straight marriages?"

I doubt most opponents of gay marriage think that. What I think is odd is the recent embrace of marriage by gays. I guess being transgressive gets old after a while.

[kurt9]

Washington state voters voted in a measure that allows for domestic unions for gays that have essentially the same benefits as marriage, without being called marriage. I suspect this is the direction it will go.

Personally, I think the state should get out of the marriage business completely and allow the institution of marriage to be a religious one. People entering in domestic partnerships would register then at the court house, and those seeking religious sanction can then get "married" in whatever church they are members of. For the rest of us, it is silly that we should be required to invite the governor and god into our bedrooms.

[Patrick]

The "elites" are "pushing" gay marriage?

Get a clue. Barack Obama, The Clintons, and virtually every prominent elected Democrat - the elites - avoid the issue entirely or have come out against it and in favor of "civil unions".

You're setting up a false dichotomy when you say "the current system of male-female marriage works just fine." Even more perplexing, you go on to contradict yourself when you admit that straight people are abandoning this very system.

When are you going to get over your discomfort for gay people and just admit that their partnerships should be afforded the same legal rights and status of marriage that any opposite sex partnership enjoys?

[ca]

“Yet, you know we're going to end up with gay marriage anyway, no matter what the voters want.”


Gay marriage is similar to the abortion issue. Legalize it, and the voters will get to choose exactly what they want.

[Sheila Tone]

HS, you JUST DID a post bemoaning the loss of family values. I'd think you'd be happy to see gays and lesbians supporting those values by forming monogamous legal unions.

[rob]

The Republicans need a new, less emotional message than yucky yucky faggy.

[Fishbein]

sabril, prop 8 indeed got a big boost from NAMs in CA. The LA Times had this map of prop 8 voting across LA county. The relationship from area to area between NAMness and prop 8 favoredness gave a fairly straight, positive slope. It was the uptight, right-wing, bigoted Mormon NAMs that stopped gay marriage.

[Turambar]

"Get a clue. Barack Obama, The Clintons, and virtually every prominent elected Democrat - the elites - avoid the issue entirely or have come out against it and in favor of "civil unions". "

The popular assumption among liberals is that these people are "really" for a lot of the more progressive agenda but just have to work covertly to move it along rather than making public statements.

In the Bush/Gore debates (after all the 'lockbox' stuff) Gore kept accusing Bush of using "code words". The reason he did so is that its a common assumption in the Left that they use sub rosa signaling to their base while avoiding any definitive on the record statements.

See this clip of a Obama speech:
http://blogs.bet.com/news/newsyoushouldknow/obama-brushes-clinton-dirt-off-his-shoulder/
"Hillary has been talking a lot smack about Barack, but while campaigning in Raleigh, N.C. last week, a day after the ABC debate in Philadelphia, the Illinois senator let her know that he wasn’t having it. In response to sharp attacks from Sen. Clinton and a debate, which was widely criticized for focusing on campaign gaffes, Obama had a hip-hop moment and brushed the Clinton “Dirt Off His Shoulder.” Some reporters got it, but a lot of them didn’t. Obama referenced the 2003 Jay-Z song, “Dirt Off Your Shoulder,” which refers to getting your enemies off your chest by brushing your shoulders off."