Massive HBD-related blog traffic today

There have been more than 25,000 hits to my blog today, because an old post about the DTNBP1 gene suddenly appeared on the front page of reddit. You may read the hundreds of comments on reddit. I've previously responded to the most common HBD-denialist comments.

Comments

[Le Mur]

Some of the logic is amazing, but typical:

- "I don't know anything about IQ tests, therefore they're invalid (e.g, culturally biased, don't correlate with the 'real world' and other nonsense).
Thoroughly and repeatedly debunked here:
http://www.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/

- "I don't know anything about genetics or biology, therefore the idea of 'human races' is invalid."

"Those who subscribe to the opinion that there are no human races are obviously ignorant of modern biology." -- Ernst Mayr, 2002

[AshAndMistyInLove]

"I was just playing around with the HapMap project when I wrote this post. Although I do believe that the ability to accurately predict a person's IQ based on their genotype will be possible in the not-too-distant future, there aren't yet enough genes identified in the literature for an armchair geneticist to determine the average racial IQs differences between whites, Asians and Nigerians. "

It will happen, but I believe it will be in the distant future. I am going copy and paste previous remarks I made on Randall's blog.

"In the next 5 years we'll witness more discoveries about the meaning of genetic variants than we've seen in all previous history because genetic testing costs have fallen so far so fast. Costs have dropped by orders of magnitude and continue to drop rapidly. Scientists face a flood of data from which they will be able to tease out many discoveries."

If I could, I would take the opposite side of that bet on even money... I want to bet against the proposition that the genetic etiology (most of it) of the race differences in intelligence will be found in five years (or even between race variances)...

I would win in at least three ways:

1) Biotech advance rates would be much lower than you anticipate
2) The genes will not be found even if more analysis has been done
3) political forces inhibit research

So far, GWAS (genome wide association studies) haven't found many polymorphisms that explain IQ differences within each race although they primarily searched for IQ differences in the protein-coding part of the genome. Furthermore, there seems to be two much noise that makes it hard to find single genes that lead to genetic differences such as gene-environment interactions, epistasis, and perhaps that genetics doesn't play a very significant role in determining the phenotype of IQ (it does play an important role, but most HBDists cite the .8 broad sense heritability based on twin studies [showing that this group isn't that objective and are primarily concerned with confirming their preconceived views on the inferiority of certain races] when it could be a more moderate .6 or even .4.) Genes that do affect IQ only have a minute effect thus they would be very hard to locate and require a lot of statistical power. Whole genome sequencing will find more variants related to IQ, but this approach would inevitably lead to more false positives (since more variables are being tested).

" September 08, 2005

I've been expecting the left-liberal inequality taboo to die by 2015. But declines in the cost of DNA sequencing combined with research results such as that reported above make me more optimistic. The taboo might have only about 5 more years to run."
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002987.html

It is far from being dead now... and I am quite confident that it would not die within the next five years. Robert Plomin recently (2008) conducted a study using 500k SNPs with 7000 7 year old children (the children are twin pairs) and only 6 SNPs (each very small effect with each one causing less than 0.4% of IQ variance). It seems that Plomin's study is rather underpowered and large sample sizes are need. I also wonder if the results from his study can be replicated.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2408663/pdf/gbb0007-0435.pdf (The Plomin PDF)

[mike]

HS: Another enormous snowstorm! Please give us some ideas how we can protect ourselves from such disastrous changes in the climate.

[Maciano]

The title is priceless:

"I'm a black guy and I want to know if you can debunk this, because it really scares me."

So, race science debunking isn't a matter of being true or not, but whether it 'scares' someone.

And what's to be scared about? It would still be averages, not all blacks would be low-IQ and not all whites would be high-IQ. Black individuals who can interpretate HS' old data blog are probably not too dumb. HBD-haters must really think Whites will suddenly start hating black people, as soon as they'd know black people were less smart than them.

[Stopped Clock]

People have known about race differences in intelligence for hundreds of years. That hasn't stopped egalitarians from refusing to believe in it before. I'm pretty sure that adding a few more bits of evidence in the form of genes isn't going to change anything. (And that's really all this is, since all the evidence about what the genes actually do has to rely on previously existing studies.) You've got to understand that there are a lot of people who don't even believe that intelligence itself is genetic, so to them the question of "how much of the genetic racial/IQ variance is explained by this individual gene?" is meaningless.

[AshAndMistyInLove]

"And what's to be scared about? It would still be averages, not all blacks would be low-IQ and not all whites would be high-IQ. Black individuals who can interpretate HS' old data blog are probably not too dumb. HBD-haters must really think Whites will suddenly start hating black people, as soon as they'd know black people were less smart than them."

Well, if he is black and he has kids, he should be scared even if he is intelligent right? His children will not regress to the white mean, but to the lower black mean and it could scare him. Don't HBDists love to point out that upper-middle class black children do worse on academic tests than low class white children to illustrate regression to the mean. Of course, I doubt he knows about regression to the mean, but my point is it is a legitimate threat to his potential children's prosperity in a meritocratic society.

[P Schwartz]

"but my point is it is a legitimate threat to his potential children's prosperity in a meritocratic society."

It's also a legitimate point to be concerned about immigration from low iq countries.

[YT]

Don't HBDists love to point out that upper-middle class black children do worse on academic tests than low class white children to illustrate regression to the mean. Of course, I doubt he knows about regression to the mean, but my point is it is a legitimate threat to his potential children's prosperity in a meritocratic society.
--------------
Oh no, people pointed out the truth. What's next? Stop whining, you fucking moron. Check out crime rates too. As for "threats," well, not my problem. Maybe his dumb kids could shoot hoops for the Lakers. If they don't make the team, send them at least 75% your income every year to make sure they are OK.

[HS: It's not so much regression towards the mean but that upper middle class blacks have been able to get where they are with lower IQs because of affirmative action, so they're children inherit lower IQs than upper middle class white children whose parents didn't have affirmative action.]

[sabril]

"And what's to be scared about?"

For one thing, it's a pretty painful truth to face. "stupid" is an insult in pretty much every culture on Earth. Nobody wants to hear that their group is inherently stupid.

Still, the world won't come to an end.

[Duh]

I don't know why you guys are bothering to analyze the Reddit headline when it was obviously written by HS.

[HS: There's nothing WRONG with promoting one's blog with fake reddit accounts, however it wasn't me. It could have been one of my fans.]

[JB]

"It will happen, but I believe it will be in the distant future. I am going copy and paste previous remarks I made on Randall's blog."

No. We will have the $100 genome in 5 years.

Add 10 years for research, and in 15 years will be able to not only predict, but genetically engineer intelligence.

You're thinking linearly. Growth of genomics has been and will continue to be exponential.

"but my point is it is a legitimate threat to his potential children's prosperity in a meritocratic society"

A meritocratic society will improve his children's "prosperity" regardless where they fit on the Bell Curve. Eliminating major diseases, creating lifestyle enhancing technologies and providing cheap fusion power will lift all boats.

[mentalculus]

Maciano, I'm 'interpretating' your comment right now. You must be one of those brilliant Italian-Americans we hear so much about.

[ca]

"So, race science debunking isn't a matter of being true or not, but whether it 'scares' someone."

That's not what he said at all. He just wants to know if it's true or not, and mentioned that it scares him. Normal people will mention their personal feelings toward whatever it is they are discussing, even when they aren't relevant.

Not everyone is a cold, analytical robot.

[AshAndMistyInLove]

"Add 10 years for research, and in 15 years will be able to not only predict, but genetically engineer intelligence.

You're thinking linearly. Growth of genomics has been and will continue to be exponential."

Since this blog attracts people with a high IQs (and I said so myself earlier), I'll say this on the assumption that most people here have sufficient understanding of very basic calculus:

Yes, you are correct, I do not think like this:

dY/dt = kY (exponentially)

nor do I think like this:

dY/dt = k (linearly)

but I think like this:

dY/dt = Y(1-Y) (logistically)

I am influenced by the Limits to Growth type of thinking and my worldview is biased towards diminishing marginally returns on investment.

[eh]

Some of the comments on your old post were pretty funny.

Also from there:

[David Altshuler makes the binary argument in the NY Times article:

"I’ve spent the last 10 years of my life researching how much genetic variability there is between populations,” said Dr. David Altshuler, director of the Program in Medical and Population Genetics at the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Mass. “But living in America, it is so clear that the economic and social and educational differences have so much more influence than genes."]

From this link:

http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/testing.htm

"Black children from the wealthiest families have mean SAT scores lower than white children from families below the poverty line."

And:

"Black children of parents with graduate degrees have lower SAT scores than white children of parents with a high-school diploma or less."

No reasonable, fair-minded person would deny that environment plays a significant role, meaning it has influence. But in light of the totality of the evidence, for a so-called professional in the field to make the claim that it has "so much more influence" is absolutely ludicrous.

[eh]

Oh wait, I take that back -- it's not ludicrous. I guess if he wants to keep his job he has to say things like that. Ask James Watson.

[ben g]

It's a shame that that post is getting any attention. The "math" that Half Sigma uses is incredibly flawed. He has never heard of something called Linkage Disequilibrium, which makes alleles that are close to each other highly correlate, so he moronically adds to together alleles from the SAME gene! These are alleles that correlate with each other at values around 80 or 90 percent.

Half Sigma, you should delete your post and issue an apology to everyone who believed your faulty math.

[HS: Write a better and more diplomatic response, and I'll append it to the bottom of the post.]

[ben g]

Half Sigma,

I wrote a response on GNXP.

[fdsdfdsf]

Why did you give such a passive response to YT's comment? That's some outright bigoted shit right there. That runt belongs on Stormfront.

[TGGP]

ben g's response is here:
http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2010/02/half-sigmas-flawed-post-on-dtnbp1.php

[40 oz.]

"Half Sigma, you should delete your post and issue an apology to everyone who believed your faulty math."

I got your faulty math right here:

http://www.colorofcrime.com/colorofcrime2005.pdf

[YT]

"Why did you give such a passive response to YT's comment? That's some outright bigoted shit right there. That runt belongs on Stormfront."

For the love of St. Heydrich, another whining idiot. Why are you such a pussy over real data about black crime and black intelligence? I'll ask you to donate more money to blacks like I did the other schmuck. Don't deny prosperity. You'll feel so much better about yourself! Really! Well, I'm getting get my Flecktarn parka...I'm gehen nach Stormfront! Bis Spater, Alligator.

[HS: I think he's being ironic, but I can't be sure.]

[Dave Chamberlin]

For those of you that find the subject facinating I would suggest you become a fly on the wall over at gnxp.com and read both The 10,000 Year Explosion and Farewell to Alms. The glib emotional opinions of the racists and the politically correct psuedo sociologists are worthless. It is going to take a lot longer than ten or fifteen years for the ability to genetically engineer greater human intellegence. But the probability of it happening within a century is very real and therefore should be a subject worth following. It would literally be a game changer like the industrial revolution was. It is important to take note that 54% of the US population doesn't even believe that we evolved from another species. The crap people are going to believe won't end anytime soon. Props to half sigma for quickly admitting where he was wrong.