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January 01, 2011

Comments

"A more interesting city is Scranton, Pennsylvania, which is losing population despite being one of the nation’s whitest cities, clocking in at 94% white. What’s going on here?"

Too few job openings at Dunder Mifflin.

If every educated white person really wanted to be in NYC, it would be more than 35% non-hispanic white.

I would guess part of it is that black people are less likely to pull up stakes in the face of a declining economy. That they are more likely to just stick around and collect welfare or work at government jobs.

So that a mixed-race city in the rust belt which loses population will tend to become blacker.

While it's true that white people regularly flee blacks, they usually just move to a different neighborhood or school district. Just a couple miles of separation is normally sufficient to avoid 85% of the unpleasantness associated with blacks.

Most of the remaining 15% comes from sharing the same country as blacks and is impossible to avoid no matter how far you move.


I'm not sure your exception applies. The "educated white persons" you speak of want to be in New York County (about 58% NHW), not New York City.

The reason is that most blacks are poor and declining cities have cheaper housing,which poor blacks can afford

Rich and poor people do not coexist in slums for the simple reason that the rich have options and the poor look for the cheapest way to survive

You seem to have a bias against Italians. I've detected this before in your posts. You seem to be ignoring the fact that in virtually all cities the Italian sections are the safest to live in and have the best restaurants. Perhaps it is true that culturally those neighborhoods may be lacking in the things that swpl's like, but in other respects they are in my opinion very desirable to live in. While it is true that some Italians may behave in a fashion that you refer to as "guidos", in general Italians are fun people to be around.

Scranton whites don't act like guidos. There's a distinction between guidos and white trash proles. I can't really articulate it, but it's rather obvious.

*I think the lesson here is that no one wants to live near black people, or create new businesses in cities with lots of black people.*

To do a proper analysis, one has to look if the black population increased at the same time while also checking the population of the metropolitan area of the respective city. If the metro areas are increasing in population while the cores are collapsing, then one can argue white flight, but if the metro area population is decreasing or stagnant while the core population of minorities is increasing, then one can argue for other reasons to explain economic decline.

*Except, of course, for New York City, which is the city where every educated white person wants to be despite being only 35% non-Hispanic white.*

The Jews keep the blacks in line. :-)

See this article for a more likely explanation:
http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/article.cfm?AID=1144

Prole cities in the Northeast and Midwest are in even greater danger of white middle class brain drain than Southern Prole cities are. The South can at least attract middle class and higher class whites with low taxes and good year round weather. Northern prole cities can't do anything about the weather (unless they want to argue for engineering warming weather which would be EVIL and anger Gaia) and they have higher taxes.

West Virginia may be the state most devastated by a lack of middle class whites because their average white IQ is the lowest in the country at 97.9. Even West Virginia's ex-Governor and current US Senator looks like a redneck (not that US Senators in general are good looking, mind you).

DC and Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Colorado are the states with the highest white IQs:

White IQ estimates by state

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2006/11/white-iq-estimates-by-state.html

Pittsburgh the city is fairly black but as I remember from a list Steve Sailer posted a few years ago, the Pittsburgh metropolitan area is, after Portland, the whitest in the country, which is certainly in keeping with western Pennsylvania generally, most of which has no black people at all. The city of Pittsburgh is also a relatively small part of the metro area; some of the neighbouring towns, in the Mon Valley for instance, are heavily black but most are almost entirely white.

By the way, those cities may be disproportionately black but several of them also have "disproportionately" godawful weather. Buffalo and Rochester in the winter are unreal and Flint and Cleveland aren't great either.

I think, in these cases, it's more likely the black population rises in the beginning as a percentage of total population just as a function of math as the smarter whites flee decaying manufacturing towns for better economic opportunity. At some point, the changing demographics probably do cause additional white flight. Scranton simply has little opportunity, and is too close to places like New York and Philadelphia to keep smart kids home. The city also seems increasingly NAM to me, and I doubt it's because NAMs move there - it's probably just whites leaving.

Wait, though, you don't think it's possible that maybe everyone who could leave, left, and because more blacks were poor more of them just couldn't leave? So the poor were left behind through attrition, and the poor have a higher percentage of blacks.

"If they behave like the guidos in Staten Island, I can understand why no one wants to live there."

Except Staten Island is not losing population, and guidos seem to be the national rage right now (at least on TV). The difference is probably that those uncouth, stupid whites have some money. In Scranton maybe they're just white trash.

My recollections of a recent visit to Scranton do not include guidos or obnoxious dumb whites. Other than Scranton University students, there seemed to be no young people there. The city residents looked very old. Maybe there's no jobs there.

Idaho cities like Boise are, as I understand it, California white-flight colonies.

The Office!

Of the cities on that list, I think New Orleans is a special case, and it's loss of population has a lot more to do with a natural disaster.

I know people who live in Flint, MI. The loss in population is largely because of the closure of many GM and Delco plants in the area. People are moving out to someplace else where they can find employment. I don't see how you can blame this on the race of the occupants. I think it has more to do with the failure of dinosaur corporations like GM and their unionized labor forces. It was almost exclusively white men who ran those corporations/unions into the ground.

It is true that Flint lacks a highly educated population. That makes it difficult to attract high technology companies to replace the failing unionized manufacturing companies. Cities like Flint with big manufacturing plants attracted large numbers of relatively poorly educated workers. You could make a good living at those plants and you didn't need a bachelors degree. Now that those industries are failing, they are naturally leaving behind large populations of less educated, unemployed.

It really doesn't have anything to do with people not wanting to live with blacks.

"The person who wrote the list implies that the decline of manufacturing is what has caused these city populations to decline. And that’s partially true, but what’s not written is that all of these cities have a disproportionate percentage of blacks."

New Orleans is an outlier here -- its relative decline started over a century ago. In rust belt cities, disproportionately large black populations today are an epiphenomenon of the boom and subsequent bust in manufacturing employment. Look up "The Great Migration".

"I think the lesson here is that no one wants to live near black people, or create new businesses in cities with lots of black people. (Except, of course, for New York City..."

That would be the most racially offensive explanation, but is it the most accurate one? New York City isn't the only city where (non-black) people are apparently willing to live near blacks and create businesses -- that's true of a number of major American cities, since most of them also have significant black populations. And plenty of whites lived in cities with significant black populations in what is now the rust belt years ago, when good-paying jobs were plentiful there. So the exodus from rust belt cities would seem to be more about economic opportunity than demographics.

"The whites who live in Scranton are disproportionately stupid low-class whites."

That's an obnoxious and inaccurate statement. Just because someone hasn't gone to college (an increasingly worthless measure of accomplishment) doesn't make them "stupid" or "low-class". I've been to Scranton. The people there seemed like decent folks, as far as I could tell, but it's easy to see why its population is declining. It's a classic rust belt city: handsome old buildings downtown a reminder of the boom times past. It's in Carbon County, PA -- coal country during the manufacturing boom years. That party has been over for decades, and Scranton's in the middle of nowhere. No wonder people are leaving.

Oakland, CA has a black majority, yet whites are moving there in droves. Ditto Atlanta, DC, and many other cities. Pittsburgh's black population makes up only 26.2% of the total population of the city.

How did Detroit not make that list?

It's important to look at the metro area population if you want the proper perspective on where people are really coming and going. That said, your point has some merit but is not applicable in all instances. After all, metro Atlanta has been gaining population for decades, including hundreds of thousands of blacks who've migrated there.

One observation: Blacks, and specifically African-Americans who are not recent immigrants, have a pretty abysmal track record of entrepreneurship. Combined with the fact that black cities are a poor environment for incubating new businesses, I don't expect the economies of any "black" city to be dynamic or robust. If blacks can hitch themselves economically to a booming area or if there's plenty of government jobs, they will not have a detrimental effect on the economy...However, if a city becomes overwhelmingly black, there's a greater likelihood that the local economy will be doomed.

Thank God that the USA doesn't have class distinctions because then things would get really bad.

Guidos aren't that bright, but they do seem to be economically pretty successful. Maybe because a lot of them work for tight knit family businesses and also, from what I hear, Italians are pretty hardworking.

Guidos also seem to fight a lot with NAMs. In an age where street tough white urban delinquents are in short supply, guidos remind us of what the east coast was like a few decades ago. Funny thing is that the guido thing was probably more widespread among Italians, and Irish, back in the day.

What about Atlanta? Isn't it a majority black city that's growing really quickly and economically booming?

Dallas seems to have a lot of blacks and also many Hispanics, but it's doing pretty well.

I think the lesson here is that no one wants to live near black people, or create new businesses in cities with lots of black people. (Except, of course, for New York City, which is the city where every educated white person wants to be despite being only 35% non-Hispanic white.)

New York is big enough and safe enough (now) that white people can comfortably stick to their own neighborhoods.

And the whites who are employed work at places like Dunder Mifflin.

According to Wikipedia Atlanta is half black and grew 28% from 2000 to 2009.

Scranton-Metro has a higher-% of college-graduates than Boise-Metro does. Wikipedia has led you to misjudge a "city" by looking at the city proper rather than the metro, which is the entity of significance.

From the Census:

____________________________
"Share of population 25 to 34 years old with a Bachelor's degree or higher, 2008" [http://tinyurl.com/2alrlp5]

USA
27.0% Males
34.2% Females

____________________________
SCRANTON-SIZED METROS

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA Metro Area
25.7% Males
33.4% Females

Boise City-Nampa, ID Metro Area
25.3% Males
29.0% Females

Sioux Falls, SD Metro Area
25.7% Males
39.8% Females

Knoxville, TN Metro Area
31.3% Males
34.0% Females
____________________________
LARGEST METROS

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area
39.3% Male
47.3% Female

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metro Area
28.4% Male
34.2% Female

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Metro Area
34.7% Males
42.1% Females

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area
45.6% Male
53.9% Female

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metro Area
48.3% Male
58.0% Female

27% of Staten Islanders have a Bachelors Degree.

"Dallas seems to have a lot of blacks and also many Hispanics, but it's doing pretty well."

The city of Dallas is around 30% non-Hispanic white, but the metro area has a much higher figure than that -- most whites tend to avoid living in Dallas except for north Dallas (where home prices start around $400k.)

Maybe the reason why Scranton is not attracting new businesses is because the younger, better educated whites have moved away to places like New York City while the remaining whites are elderly retirees? Also, plenty of people live in Staten Island.

Quote: "You seem to have a bias against Italians."

Actually, to be fair, he has a bias against all gentiles.

One reason why whites go to college is so that they can get jobs that will ensure that they will never have to live around blacks. If you come from a place where there are not a lot of blacks to begin with then you have less incentive to go to college. A college education makes white flight easier.

I live in Buffalo, it's not nearly 50% black, more like 20%. And what's this crap about "guidos"? I guess that means Italian-Americans? They have a higher average economic status than most other whites. What's your problem?

Pittsburgh feels like whiteopia compared to most American cities. Explain why it's losing population when other, far blacker cities are doing better, even thriving.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_African_American_populations

Posted by: DaveinHackensack
"New York City isn't the only city where (non-black) people are apparently willing to live near blacks and create businesses -- that's true of a number of major American cities, since most of them also have significant black populations."

It's a little more complicated than that. A multi-racial city is NOT necessarily an integrated city. There's a lot more segregation than society realizes, at least when it comes to where people choose to live.
LA county for example
http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/adams/old305/morphology/la2000a.jpg

Notice the obvious ethnic enclaves. Of course this is not unique to LA.
People in general like to hang out with their own kind.

Doesn't reporting %age with degrees confound two different issues, the other one being the age of the population?

We drive through the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre corridor every other year or so going to relatives back east. Normally, we stay overnight.

This region of Penn is an absolute Mafia rat-hole. It is old, very decayed and very corrupt. No sane person will stay there or move there.

OneSTDV - the difference between guidos and White Trash is money and culture. Guidos have money by and large, and at least come from a background with some culture.

(Culture being European/SWPL aesthetics)

Pittsburgh the city is declining, but the metro area is fine, and very very white. North of the city is booming, looks like Charlotte, NC with new developments everywhere. Its won every major most livable city award in the past three years.

"If every educated white person really wanted to be in NYC, it would be more than 35% non-hispanic white." Great point Ice hole. I am educated and I would never live in that dump.

Joe Walker wrote: "Maybe the reason why Scranton is not attracting new businesses is because the younger, better educated whites have moved away to places like New York City"

This theory, proposed by Half-Sigma based on "Wiki-blindness" (quoting trash from wikipedia as gospel) is wrong. I link to the actual census files above.

Yes, big metros do have a (predictably) higher share of educated young people, BUT

Scranton-Metro has a -higher- share of 25-34 year-olds with a bachelor's degree or higher than does Boise-Metro.

-I would guess part of it is that black people are less likely to pull up stakes in the face of a declining economy. That they are more likely to just stick around and collect welfare or work at government jobs.-

Regardless of the economy, etc..., blacks are more likely to stick around, get the gubbmint jobs and our money. In other words, act like they always do.

"I live in Buffalo, it's not nearly 50% black, more like 20%. "

Buffalo is about half white and the rest is mostly black.

The story of Buffalo and Rochester is one of boom towns that surged and brought in people with a work ethic and an eye for opportunity. The opening of the St Lawrence Sea way took out the underpinnings of a lot of the industry that was based there and the sites lost their attractiveness to the young who saw themselves as upwardly mobile.

The real crash occurred in the 80's when court desegregation cases and forced busing depopulated the great ethnic neighborhood of Buffalo. Today they are all devastated except an enclave of South Buffalo and part of North Buffalo. When parents moved their families out to escape the perdition of Judge Curtin's hours on the bus some moved out of town entirely and some moved to various suburbs. Today the metro Buffalo area including outer ring suburbs is over a million and 85% is white.

With traditional neighborhoods like the Italian West Side and Germans and Pole in East Buffalo broken up, the bonds on subsequent generations became looser, and the 'bright young go-getter' of the next generations saw their careers best made away from Buffalo and the oppressive Democrat machine that controls most of the opportunities in Erie and Monroe counties.

I work in a Southern tech center and each hallway has at least 3 or 4 young professionals from Western NY who got out.

Blacks continue to like the area because they like government jobs, which is the main employer in the area. Black politicians are running the place and rewarding their ethnic supports with patronage.

For young whites, living in the city is best done by a person without a lot of ambition. That associates well with the population who stay- unionized workers.

I think you'd probably see the same trends in Pittsburgh as in Buffalo and Rochester: a city who's main employers are Democrat government and unionized employers. Educated young see no opportunity and leave. Hence the area becomes more minority.

Back in 2007 there was a huge scandal when New Jersey welfare officials in Newark, Camden and Trenton were actively ENCOURAGING their worst cases to pack up and move to Pennsylvania cities like Altoona, Scranton, Bethlehem, Wilkes-Barre etc. The Welfare officials told them that benefits were more generous there, with shorter waiting periods, lower rents and better Section 8 support, more generous school systems etc. etc.

The New Jersey welfare officials actually PRINTED FLIERS to pass out to their local welfare cases - these fliers extolled the virtues of moving to these various Pennsylvania cities. The welfare offices in PA were getting hundreds of calls from Newark, mostly from people who did not know where Altoona or Scranton were located.

Needless to say, crime rates shot up immediately.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-07-15-altoona_N.htm

http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/intelligencer-journal-lancaster-new-era-combined-saturday-edition/mi_8130/is_20070817/pa-public-housing-perfect-nj/ai_n52830878/

Actually 37.5% of young adults in Staten Island (25-34) have a college degree. Higher than average.

"It's a little more complicated than that. A multi-racial city is NOT necessarily an integrated city. There's a lot more segregation than society realizes, at least when it comes to where people choose to live.
LA county for example"


E, that graphic cut off almost the whole northern half of the county!

Half Sigma seems to conflate every activity that a white person does, is motivated by a desire to avoid black people and/or NAMs. From "doing good in school" to "trying to make a high salary" even the types of food they consume (no black people/NAMs in the organic food isle). All of it is motivated, whether consciously or subconsciously, by a desire to avoid NAMs.

While it may be a legitimate point and is something that white people will never express publicly or privately, or whether he's just playing the Devil's advocate here, it's foolish to rule out other causes of certain phenomena. Unfortunately, Half Sigma plays the NAM card far too often and this post is just ridiculous.

A free source of the article on Buffalo and other decaying cold weather cities:
http://www.city-journal.org/html/17_4_buffalo_ny.html

About ten years ago, I heard Tom Leykis say New Orleans is the most overrated city in America. He was right then, and doubtless it's worse now.

Blacks are more likely to commit crime than Whites, are more aggressive, enter puberty sooner, and are less intelligent, on average. Blacks however tend to be better at certain types of singing, speed sports, at achieving a lower degree of body fat. This is all due to genes.

Off-topic, but a great interview with Steve Sailer about HBD is up in Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FVLFr2niwjE. There's nothing new in it for Sailer aficionados, but I had actually never seen him speaking before.

Rather than assertingback and forth about Buffalo's ethnic breakdown use the web and find out the answers. One of my fav sites for this is idcide.com. For Buffalo we find it is 54% white and 37% black.

http://www.idcide.com/citydata/ny/buffalo.htm

Or here's a more detailed breakdown:

http://www.zipareacode.net/buffalo-ny.htm
2000 Population:: 598,640
White Population:: 444,590
Black Population:: 118,269
Hispanic Population:: 26,577
Asian Population:: 10,306
Hawaiian Population:: 172
Indian Population:: 2,838
Other Population:: 12,125

BTW, it is a misconception among educated New Yorkers that most smart people around the country want to live in NYC. Let me enlighten you on this point: NO!

People out on the West Coast want to live in the milder weather out here. That's one of the biggest draws.

The big migration from the northeast and midwest southward is driven by a desire to move to cooler weather too.

Okay, so strike one against NYC is the weather. Let us be clear: Lots of people choose where to live based on weather.

Second, there's the crowding. I know people who live in Santa Barbara who'd love to live out in the country. But out in the country is too far from jobs. Ditto friends in Silicon Valley who wish they could live in bigger places. Lots of people like space in their homes, in their yards, and mountains and back country and forests for hiking or hunting or camping.

Then there are the NY taxes. You get to pay high state and city income taxes and assorted other taxes. Florida beckons with no state income tax, no need to pay extra to park your car, just an easier life in so many ways.

Then there's culture. Used to be few cities had operas, symphonies, and the like. Not any more. Plus, most people would rather watch it at home. The cultural draw of NYC is far smaller than it used to be.

NYC residents can't wrap their heads around the idea that they are outliers. Most people have different preferences. We aren't living in secret envy of NYC. Mostly we do not think much about NYC.

Quote: "the difference between guidos and White Trash is money and culture. Guidos have money by and large, and at least come from a background with some culture."

Please explain why "guidos" have culture but "White Trash" don't.

Quote: "I guess that means Italian-Americans? They have a higher average economic status than most other whites."

Where did you get this information?

Jack wrote: "37.5% of young adults in Staten Island (25-34) have a college degree. Higher than average."

Lower than New York City's average of 43.3%, but still nothing to be ashamed of.

A list of the 100 largest USA metro areas, ranked by share of young adults with a college degree, is here:
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/the-most-and-least-educated-u-s-metro-areas/#more-425

Posted by: Sheila Tone
"E, that graphic cut off almost the whole northern half of the county!"

Yeah and the data is also 10 years old but the conclusion is still the same, we live in a segregated society. Obama may not like it, YES it is true, there really is "a black America and a white America and latino America and asian America"

some more maps showing the racial segregation for your viewing pleasure
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315078/Race-maps-America.html

"Then there's culture. Used to be few cities had operas, symphonies, and the like."

Why is it that every time someone wants to impress me with the fact that their shitty little town is not so shitty, they mention that it has a symphony? I don't give a shit about that. I never go to the symphony. Do you have a Barnes & Noble or a Borders, that's what I want to know.

Bryan Davis, the most important decision that most people make is where to live. That decision is conditioned by two other important decisions: what job to have and where to send your kids to school. Trying to stay away from brutal, stupid NAMs is a big factor in all these major choices. So no, avoiding NAMs does not motivate everything a white person does, but it sure as hell affects the most important decisions.

"Trying to stay away from brutal, stupid NAMs is a big factor in all these major choices. So no, avoiding NAMs does not motivate everything a white person does, but it sure as hell affects the most important decisions."

Consciously or Sub-consciously? So all of those parents picking up their kids at the pre-dominantly white school all had "the talk" w/ their spouse about how to avoid NAMs?

"Consciously or Sub-consciously? So all of those parents picking up their kids at the pre-dominantly white school all had "the talk" w/ their spouse about how to avoid NAMs?"

Eh, who knows. I make no secret of it when I talk to my wife. I am sure there are other people who consciously think it but conceal it from their spouse. And I am sure there are liberals who *think* they are just looking for "good neighborhoods and good schools" and would indignantly deny they are avoiding NAMs. But whether they admit it or not, that is exactly what they are doing.

What about lower class whites? I don't think it's fair to just throw NAMs into the equation. If somebody doesn't want to pursue a career in the plumbing industry, it's not because they find the work distasteful or boring, but MORE SO because of the fact that they'll have to interact w/ co-workers who behave in the same manner as the cast members of the show "Roseanne"?

I know a friend who could've taken over his dad's construction business without really doing any work and be set for life. He declined because he found the people who worked in construction to be absolutely classless and at certain times, scary.

"whether they admit it or not, that is exactly what they are doing"

JP's on the money. As a commenter here once noted, if you're curious why cities like Portland and Seattle are so popular with liberals, go there and look around some time; you'll figure it out. In terms of ethnic mix, Manhattan south of 110th is probably not significantly different from either.

"Trying to stay away from brutal, stupid NAMs is a big factor in all these major choices. So no, avoiding NAMs does not motivate everything a white person does, but it sure as hell affects the most important decisions."

You can replace white with Asian and get the same. Well to do NAM's also do it.

re: Pittsburgh, PA declining population

It seems to me one factor that should be considered is how lon have the Demonrats been in charge of the city. I would guess it has been well over a hundred years. Check out Scranton, PA next. The correlation with Democrat rule and declining population possibly is a significant element.

Dan Kurt

For metro Atlanta to have a high percentage of blacks and still be prospering, is a sign that lots of NAMs doesn't have to drag down a city. Not if the business climinate is good and there's a lot of policing.

Italians seem to have strong family values, low level of illegitimacy, steady middle class incomes, an entreprenuerial tradition, etc. Which may be why Staten Island is so prosperous.

In Seattle, about 70 pecent of the population is white. The next biggest ethnic group are.......... Asians...... Then about 15 percent of the population is NAM (black, Latin, Native American). Portland is similar, but a little bit whiter a few less blacks. Both cities are full of middle class SWPLs.

It's so ridiculous for you to make claims like this about blacks without context of other cities who are -not-declining in population.

I'm from Pittsburgh. The only reason it looks like there are many blacks is (as you finally note in your edit) that many neighborhoods are not considered part of the city of "Pittsburgh" but other independent towns. How about a more reasonable explanation for population decline like "not enough jobs due to the disappearance of the steel industry"?

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