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February 08, 2011

Comments

"But good luck finding a high-paying job there."

So what? You're so focused on status, you will be miserable your whole life. I know plenty of people in Utah and Idaho who make just OK money but who seem a lot happier than my high flying friends in New York or LA. If you like the outdoors you can be probably perfectly happy in Idaho on 50-60K a year.

Declining house prices aren't necessarily a matter of 2010's being a bad year for the middle class (if that was even true). House prices in most of the country became so grotesquely hyperinflated in the years preceding the 2008 crash that they're still not where they should be.

"You're so focused on status, you will be miserable your whole life."

----------------------------------------------------

What ever gave you that impression? :)

I would say the drop in housing prices is mainly a result of the bursting of the real estate bubble as well as the credit bubble which accompanied the real estate bubble.

It's become a lot harder to borrow money, particularly to buy real estate. So it's hardly a surprise that the real estate market is down.

"You're so focused on status, you will be miserable your whole life"

Unfortunately, Halfsigma is one of the few secular Jews in America who is not from a wealthy family. Also unfortunately, brains and writing talent have not made him rich.

Here's an idea for you HS: Write an anti-HBD book in the spirit of "Guns Germs & Steel" or "Mismeasure of Man." Hire a hot babe to pose as the author. Put a hidden message in the book which spells out "This is bullshit." Laugh all the way to Tahiti.

HS *is* a hotbabe -- posing as a secular jewish guy.

"But good luck finding a high-paying job there."

You'll find yourself not caring so much, because when there are lots of, um, "good schools," social egalitarianism is much stronger.

But Idaho? Searing summers, freezing winters, and dry, wildfire-conducive weather sporadically interrupted by downpours that cause mosquito outbreaks.

"If you like the outdoors you can be probably perfectly happy in Idaho on 50-60K a year." Please let me know were you can find an abundance of jobs in Idaho that pay 50-60K/year with benefits.

By the way, the biggest value-transfer payday of the year happened yesterday with the sale of Huffpo to AOL.

Much of the site is devoted to condensing and overhyping stories (to manipulate Google results) that other news organizations spent money on reporting, thereby transferring their value to Huffpo.

In a similar way, much of Arianna's initial wealth and Rolodex came from marrying a millionaire politician, who then transferred value to her in the divorce.

So now, it is "worth" $315M for a "business" that gets its value from essentially covering its competitors' and suppliers' signs with bigger, flashier signs of its own.

More lucrative and respectable than selling counterfeit Rolexes, I guess.

Maricopa, Arizona is still a better deal.

And the weather is better. ;)

Article in the WSJ yesterday about people buying houses for cash in Miami and Phoenix. How cheaply could you live if your didn't work? Or, could you do what you do remotely?

Or, could you do what you WANT to do (make money from this blog, your various other schemes) remotely?

]]]]]"If you like the outdoors you can be probably perfectly happy in Idaho on 50-60K a year." Please let me know were you can find an abundance of jobs in Idaho that pay 50-60K/year with benefits. [[[[[

The government. Federal, state, and municipal but especially federal. And a lot of the land management jobs are outdoors work, too.

]]]]]HS *is* a hotbabe -- posing as a secular jewish guy.[[[[[

The blogsphere is full of hot blonde babes posing as nebbishy guys so they'll be taken seriously. "Steve Sailer" is really a pseudonym for Megan Fox and "Megan McArdle" is really a lean 6'2" amazon warrior.

Posted by: Peter
"House prices in most of the country became so grotesquely hyperinflated in the years preceding the 2008 crash that they're still not where they should be."

+1
If you want to see the "true" value of real estate then I propose that we reinstate *traditional* lending standards (you know the standards that our grandparents had to conform to in order to buy a house): stable job, good credit, 20% down payment.
oops
But we all know the government is not going to reinstate those policies because NAM's can't meet the standards.

Since HS likes to talk about investment here's mine. If you want to make $$$ you need to look at what rich people are doing you don't look at what poor people are doing. Makes sense right? What that means right now is buying gold/commodities and staying the hell away from real estate.

Even a hotbabe -- posing as a secular jewish guy can figure this out were it not for ideology clouding one's judgment.

[HS: Half of my net worth is invested in oil and natural gas stocks. But I think a house in Idaho is a good investment right now if you intend to live in it--prices will go up because of white migration.]

"What that means right now is buying gold/commodities and staying the hell away from real estate."

No, the people running up the price of gold are the Indian middle class and people who watch mainstream right tv and radio, where half the commercials are for gold and silver, with the other half for BS "natural remedies" and weightloss scams. They will get killed when the economy returns to normal. Gold went from $800 in 1980 to $350 in the 1990's. Meanwhile the stock market went up more than 500%.

Rich people continue to buy real estate and the places they favor the most, Manhattan and San Francisco, have never stopped going up.

HS's being heavily invested in energy is also a good idea.

[HS: Gold is a fool's investment, which can be very profitable if there's a greater fool to sell it to. But there's a good chance that it's greater fools who are the people buying it today. In any event, gold is a short term speculation and not something to buy and hold for a long time.]

"Half of my net worth is invested in oil and natural gas stocks. But I think a house in Idaho is a good investment right now if you intend to live in it--prices will go up because of white migration"

You've got great big balls---Gutsy move. My Suncor investment (Canadian Oil Sands) is up about 25% so far.

I think it will pay off in the short run but don't get greedy because it will crash eventually either from another economic crash, acceleration of Global Climate Change and/or competition from green energy sources.

Micron, Boise Cascade, Albertsons, and JR Simplot Company are all located in Boise, so I bet there are a decent number of high paying jobs there.

Canadian Oil Sands are only getting started - Oilsand development is crazy innovative. Not only can companies try to get green cred showing how they are making the process so much more environmental, generally making the process more environmental means that they use less energy getting the oil (higher profits)

Oilsands took a hit in the height of the recession because oil dropped so low (60$ a barrel was basically break-even at the start of the recession)

Expect the most innovative oilsand companies to make a killing this decade (Suncor is right up there).

My houseprice has gone up 30% since December 2008 (not including the money I put into it) - Canadian Lending Standards weren't nonexistent for long enough to kill our market.

I own two ounces of gold, which represents a small part of my small portfolio. I plan to hold on to them, and not lose any sleep about it. I recommend not holding more than 5% of your portfolio in gold and at least 60% in income-producing investments (more as you get closer to retirement).

[HS: Gold is a fool's investment, which can be very profitable if there's a greater fool to sell it to. But there's a good chance that it's greater fools who are the people buying it today. In any event, gold is a short term speculation and not something to buy and hold for a long time.]

In a nutshell there are two types of investment strategies:
1) buy and hold - this theory states 90% of everything in life is crap so don't buy it. But 10% of the assets out there are a good value so it's worth buying and keeping. This has nothing to do with timing, it's all about finding value, kinda like going on a treasure hunt.

2) timing based - this theory states that all assets must either go up or down depending on the market. Everything moves in cycles up and down so therefore nothing is worth holding onto for the long term. It's all about knowing when to jump in and equally important when to jump out.

Of course nobody subscribes to either or in a strict sense. It's a sliding scale. Without question MOST people in our society lean closer towards the "buy and hold" end of the spectrum. I'm at the other end.

As for the "greater fool" explanation of investing. When I start to overhear bus drivers, security guards, and housewives talk about how smart they are because they're making money off gold then I'll jump off.

//But good luck finding a high-paying job there. //

The thing is, you don't need a "high-paying job" (by NYC standards, for sure, or most standards) to live pretty comfortably in Idaho or Utah. You don't have to spend a ton on real estate to avoid living in a crime-infested hellhole. Send your kids to public school. Drive around in a used Dodge without getting looked down upon. Your kids can go to UIdaho or UUtah and employers won't care that they didn't go to Harvard.

//Please let me know were you can find an abundance of jobs in Idaho that pay 50-60K/year with benefits. //

There's not an abundance of jobs anywhere, but Idaho and Utah do have some presence in the tech sector: Hewlett-Packard, Micron, Qwest, Idaho National Laboratory, Novell, ATK, and IKANO.

The average tech job in Idaho and Utah pays in the $60k range (or did a couple years ago). Boise and Salt Lake City are often on lists of best cities for tech jobs. Utah's unemployment rate is lower than New York's and both are lower than California's. Utah's median household is comparable to New York's. Idaho is a bit behind, but it's cheaper than Utah and comparable in MHI to Texas.

Maybe you ask this because you are unemployed or underemployed and living in Idaho. If so, my sympathies. Things are tough out there (out everywhere). But a lot of people seem to think Idaho and Utah are practically third-world in terms of jobs, so I felt the need to testify.

oil companies will not suffer from "green energy" competition. They will suffer from deliberate damage inflicted by Obama and his ilk, e.g. see here http://www.vdare.com/malkin/110204_interior_department.htm . Some people like to go on and on about the evils of Republican plutocracy, but I will take it any day compared to the Democrat true believer gaia-worshipping wrecker fanaticism.

An RMB/Yuan account with Bank of China in New York is my recommendation, I just have to get my ass to the branch in NYC one of these days:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704307404576080222812076888.html

Forbes Street Talk:

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/01/12/comes-the-revolution-buy-yuan-in-new-york-as-much-as-you-like/#comments

Bank of China (NY Branch) website:

http://www.bocusa.com/portal/Info?id=649&lang=1&

Salt Lake City, UT and the surrounding region has jobs in all sorts of industries - retail, finance, even manufacturing. It has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Good schools, beautiful country, nice people. It's not a "whitopia" for two reasons - one is that there is a weird white prole undercurrent that doesn't seem to exist, for example, in New England. During my stay in Utah I heard a bizarre number of stories about people who have relatives with crystal meth problems, people getting their throats cut in fast food restaurants, bizarre family murders, etc. Almost as baroque as the South. At least anecdotally there is a lot less of that in New England, or we at least we do a better job of insulating our elites from that side of life.

The other problem is that SLC is slowly succumbing to a steady influx of Mexican immigrants and, worse, SWPLs. In 20 years it will be no different than California.

Yeah, but are there nerd chicks in Idaho and Utah?

SFG, at least in Utah yes - there are plenty of nerd chicks. Look in any coffee shop and you'll find them (Mormon chicks don't drink coffee).

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