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April 15, 2011

Comments

Well you've surely outdone the birthers.

It all seems a little far-fetched to me.

How old was O's "grandmother" when he was born?

You act as if you think Sarah Palin and her husband would have been tremendously shamed by her teenaged daughter's pregancy and that she's feel she needed to cover it up.

Man, you need to go visit Alaska. It's no exaggeration to say that people there accept individuality as_ in __no_other_ state and would not at all be blown away by a political figure's daughter having a baby while not married. That's not to say they wouldn't take note; it is to say they wouldn't let it bother them much if they did take note. A non-issue.

There's no way in the world at that time Palin thought she'd become a national figure and even then, I doubt she'd care about societal norms.

Your premise is based on the notion that a pol and a voter from AK would be similar to those you know. No. You are assuming the sensibilities and worries of standard American pols are like those of an Alaskan from a tiny town who happened to become governor of a state no one in the lower 48 pays attention to and you are assuming voters in AK are like those elsewhere.

Visit Alaska. It truly is a frontier and the people really, really are different. They are self-sufficient, tolerant, non-judgemental, judgementalness, often eccentric. About the only thing they can't stand are people who don't try to be self-sufficient.

Great place. You ought to visit there.

I should know to edit, but you get the point.

//she’s not smart enough//

Everything about your theories says quite the opposite. She successfully switched babies. She (or her daughter) had a baby for weeks without anyone knowing about it. She fooled everyone around her into thinking that she was pregnant past the point where there was already a baby to take care of.

You've not only described a very artful liar; you've described someone quite intelligent.

You've also described someone, in her own way, quite admirable. She put her family first, held a commitment to life was more important than potential political complications*, and placed her daughter's future ahead of a likely desire not to spend an additional six years or so parenting yet another child.

Even setting aside the logistical unlikelihood, I do not believe Sarah Palin fits this profile. I would have more respect for her than I do if she *did* do these things.

* - It would have been much less difficult for her daughter to have an abortion than to pull off what you're saying she pulled off.

Interesting hypothesis, but still, Occams Razor reminds me that it's just simpler to assume it's Sarah Palin's kid. As the evidence stands, that's what I'm going with.

This theory does not account for Bristol's son Tripp. Where did he come from?

The simplest answer is that Sarah had Trig and Bristol had Tripp. Further, it is pretty common for a woman in her early 40's to have a Downs child--1:20. It is about 100 times less common for a young girl to have such a child.

Nah. Older women are more likely to have Down Syndrome babies. It's less likely that Bristol had Trig. You're wasting your time on this.

"Once this became known, the adoption fell through, because who would want to adopt a retarded baby?"

Lots of people: http://baby.lovetoknow.com/wiki/Adopting_a_Child_with_Down_Syndrome

"1. There were rumors that Bristol was pregnant. Often, rumors get started because they are true."

Often rumors are false.

"2. Bristol was mysteriously pulled out of high school. For what reason would this happen? A likely reason is to spare her (and Sarah) the embarrassment of going to school while pregnant."

Maybe she was flunking.

"3. Bristol has a proven propensity for having unprotected sex, as demonstrated by what was probably her second pregnancy."

I'll grant that Bristol has a propensity for unprotected sex. But Tripp was almost certainly her first child.

"4. Pictures from the Republican convention show Bristol taking care of Trig and looking at him with the love of a mother. Sarah, on the other hand, seemed entirely indifferent to him."

Sarah's been through that before; she has 5 kids. Bristol was looking forward to having her own baby.

"5. Sarah brought Trig to work with her three days after he was allegedly born. I don’t think so. No doctor would let someone parade around a premature baby in public three days after he was born. This confirms that Trig was born before the alleged birthdate, and the most likely mother is Bristol."

Maybe she didn't ask a doctor. If Trig had already been released from the hospital there's nothing to stop Sarah from taking her baby wherever she wants.

"6. Sarah is unable to produce a birth certificate for Trig because the real certificate has an earlier birth date and lists Bristol as the mother."

Maybe she just doesn't want to dignify these rumors with a response.

"7. There was no birth announcement at the hospital because Trig wasn't born there on the date claimed by Sarah."

Birth announcements are optional. I think a woman in the public eye as much as Sarah Palin would choose not to announce her baby.

"Naysayers claim that because Trig has Down Syndrome, this proves that it’s Sarah’s baby. It proves no such thing, and in fact makes the charade all the more likely because there’s no problem in finding parents for a healthy white baby."

For this scenario to be true a whole chain of unlikely events had to happen. It's possible, but it's extremely unlikely.

"Secretly adopted". You obviously have no experience with how adoption works.

"Sarah arranged for a secret adoption of Bristol’s baby [Trig]"

So why, then, didn't Sarah arrange a secret adoption for Tripp? She went through all that effort to hide the truth about one child, but let the next child ruin the whole point of that effort?

I don't get it.

You really should spend some quality time with William of Ockham.

I'd also point out that your theory entails two improbable events:
- An 18 year old woman giving birth to a baby with Down's Syndrome
- A woman conceiving almost immediately post-partum (Tripp Palin was born about 8 months after Trig)

Please look up the medical statistics for these two situations and calculate their joint probability for the studio audience.

What if Sarah gave birth in Texas and just wants to pretend that Trig was born in Alaska? This would explain an awful lot.

If the Palins are fundie Christians, why do their kids have bizarre hippie names? Track, Tripp, Piper, Willow, Trig, Bristol instead of Moses, Abraham, Matthew, Jedediah, Paul, etc.

They are an odd case.

Bristol gave birth 12/27/2008 which puts possible conception dates as 4/1/08 -4/9/2008
http://www.baby2see.com/conception_calculator.html#ConceptionCalculator

Sarah Palin's child was born 4/18/2008.

Those dates make it clearly impossible that Bristol gave birth to Trig.

[HS: You're assuming that those dates are the True dates.]

Trig would actually have to have been born months earlier, like December or January to make it even possible for Bristol to get pregnant again in time. So where did they hide a Downs kid for months?

[HS: With Bristol who wasn't going to school at the time.]

Much more likely than a 17 having a Downs baby and multiple babies in 12 months is that Sarah is the mother and the Palins cause a derangement among urban liberals.

[HS: "Derangement" is a word used to shame people so they don't point out that the emperor is naked.]

"Those dates make it clearly impossible that Bristol gave birth to Trig.

[HS: You're assuming that those dates are the True dates.]"

Ok, if Trig was really born in January then why did Palin rush home 4 months later in a suspicious way? Totally unnecessary in your scenario.

If these were random variables what is more likely? A 17 yo giving birth to a Down baby and having 2 kids in one year?

Or a teenager having sex with her boyfriend while her mother is out of town for days at a Governors conference?

The truth is Sarah hates the baby's father and she didn't want him being a part of or near to her family. So, she fixed things up for her daughter to keep him from marrying this guy and being stuck with a kid. Effectively, she covered for her daughter and got rid of the Dad.

Why are people taking this seriously? This is HS's idea of a joke, and a sarcastic attack on the birthers. That's some nice trolling, HS.

Another point not mentioned: What about Levi's silence? His on again-off again relationship with the Palins has allowed him access to intimate details when he is on the ins and a willingness to sell that info when he is on the outs. One would think he probably knows the truth. Why wouldn't he take his biggest payday to date by revealing any bombshell dirt he knows?

//Why are people taking this seriously? This is HS's idea of a joke, and a sarcastic attack on the birthers. That's some nice trolling, HS. //

Everyone needs to firmly believe in some unsubstantiated thing or another that everyone around you considers unlikely.

I, for one, believe that Osama Bin Laden has been dead for the greater part of a decade (the "videos" are fakes and the government is aware of bin Laden's likely death) and that Peak Oil is a canard that will still be "right around the corner" fifty years from now.

Maybe Levi isn't the father of the first child. Briston was known as a slut around Wasilla.

"//Why are people taking this seriously? This is HS's idea of a joke, and a sarcastic attack on the birthers. That's some nice trolling, HS. //"

I know but I cant stop.

It bothers me that there is a possibility that HS's might actually believe it. If so he'd be the only sane person who does.

Thought exercises: the country is better after 8 years of POTUS Palin or Obama? Ignore Congress.

HS: 3. Sarah really was pregnant and really did give birth in April, but her real baby was secretly adopted by someone else, and Trig was switched in.

This keeps getting better and better. Originally, I thought HS was just caught up in a Palin-induced Manhattan reality warp zone. Now I think he's just putting us on.

-Mercy

Oh, I know this hard to comprehend in a left-wing oasis of selfish obsession with wealth and status like Manhattan, but there are plenty of adoptive parents for Downs babies in the Red State America.

In fact the shortage tends to go the other way with US parents seeking to adopt Downs babies need to go overseas:

http://reecesrainbow.org/category/waitingchildren/boys-down-syndrome-0-5

-Mercy

It is also possible, but exceedingly unlikely that both babies were brought to Palin's house by a local friendly bear.

Innumeracy is prevalent among media, politicos and ruling class in general (financial and technical elites are honorably excepted). But I kind of expect better from a dissident blogger, especially one who is well educated and writes very well.

Here is a graph (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00032401.htm#00000308.gif) indicating that births to mothers younger than 20 years yield 10 Down Syndrome babies per 10,000, ie less than 0.1%.

Mothers older than 40 yield 1% or more of DS births, impossible to say from the graph.

I could not find stats on postpartum pregnancy, however it is clear that pregnancy rates are depressed after birth, not clear how much.

Assume, for the sake of argument, that probability of getting pregnant in the first 90 days after birth while having high frequency unprotected sex is 10%.

So, probability of young slut Bristol giving birth to a DS baby and then getting pregnant again within 3 months is 0.1% * 10% = 0.01% or 1 / 10,000.

Not impossible, but not very likely either.

Probabilities of other events mentioned in HS post:

1. Rumors of Bristol pregnancy
Random rumors of a popular girl being pregnant in High School? 30%?

3. Young slut Bristol having unprotected sex that leeds to repeated pregnancies:
10-20%

4. Bristol looking loving at DS baby:
N/A. 2 other girls in the family looked just as lovingly at poor child.

5. Sara brought DS baby to office so soon after birth.
90%. She probably would have brought baby to office unless he is in hospital.

6. DS baby birth certif. not produced.
100%.
Palin plays victim of MSM and, justifiably, feels badly victimized by them.

Why she, a clearly natural-born American, has to produce all docs, while clear fraud anti-american Barry Hussein Sattoro be above that all?

7. Birth announcement at the hospital
How common such announcements in Vasilla (sp?) hospital?
You get a point here only if 85-100% of all other births are announced.


I would believe that Sigma's trolling his own blog, except there's something about Palin that drives Jews batshit insane.

[HS: Jews are smart. Palin is stupid. Jews think that someone who would be VP or President should be smarter than the average Jewish person. There's no mystery.]

"[HS: Jews are smart. Palin is stupid.]"

Not that stupid- around 115 or so.

Beside how smart can you be if you believe in something so laughably far fetched?

i would think she would want to shove the birth crtificate down people's throats to shame them into spreading rumors. that alone makes me wonder.

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