March 8, 2010, I wrote:
It will be a huge flop or a huge success. There's no middle ground.
The commenter Wade Nichols sarcastically replied:
This is precisely the kind of insightful analysis that major corporations are looking for!
Why haven't they hired you yet?
My response was:
If you knew that a stock will either go to $0 or double in value, then there's easy money to be made with an appropriate options strategy. My prediction for the iPad will be wrong if it remains a moderately profitable niche product for Apple.
iPad has proven to be a huge success for Apple. Half Sigma was right.
Predicting the future is really difficult. The first time I saw the internet, in 1994, I thought “only nerds will ever want to use this.” Boy was I wrong about that! But I think I’m getting better at predicting.
There were great thinkers such as Karl Marx and Thomas Robert Malthus who had brilliant insights about the present, but are mostly known for being wrong about certain specific predictions they made.
I definitely do think that my analysis is worth a lot of money to big corporations.