David Segal writing for the NY Times reports that the number of people taking the LSAT has declined 16% since last year, and furthermore he documents how the perception of law school as a safe haven for those unemployed or underemployed has been changing.
I was at the forefront of the anti-law school movement even before I ever blogged anything; I frequently wrote anti-law school comments on the Vault message boards, but I was a decade ahead of the times.
A 16% decline in the number of people applying to law school is like a 500-pound man losing ten pounds and then bragging about his wonderful diet.
Posted by: Peter | March 19, 2012 at 10:20 PM
"A 16% decline in the number of people applying to law school is like a 500-pound man losing ten pounds and then bragging about his wonderful diet."
Taking the LSATs has almost no cost, so there are many people taking the LSATs who aren't set on going to law school.
Posted by: Alex | March 19, 2012 at 11:14 PM
It strikes me as a significant decline, especially given that there was also a noticable drop the year before, but (as I think Peter means) we'd have to know more to evaluate it. How are other grad school programs doing -- doctors, librarians, anyone who needs a postgraduate degree?
Also, has there been any drop in applications to undergrad university programs? It's possible that we're simply running out of money with which to chase the false hope of a degree leading to a job, since the fake "recovery" isn't helping so many people.
"Many lawyers and law professors have argued in recent years that the legal market will either stagnate or shrink as technology allows more low-end legal work to be handled overseas, "
Hmm. Outsourcing catching up with lawyers? The only jobs safe from outsourcing are those which literally *must* be performed in person, and many of those (e.g., manicurist, chiropractor) are likely to slip into the "unnecessary luxury" category as the middle class continues to get poorer.
Posted by: Haven't picked a nickname yet | March 19, 2012 at 11:28 PM
Well, 16% of 500 pounds in 80, not 10, so I'd say it's a pretty good start.
Law is ripe for computer automation to gut a lot of the lower level jobs. I wouldn't expect the first signs of this to be in law school applications though... Might be something else causing this or the gutting has already started and I'm not aware of it (very possible).
Posted by: Aric | March 20, 2012 at 12:35 AM
The law school scam is only the tip of the iceberg. Civilization is a ponzy scheme fueled by the young and naive for the benefit of the old and cynical. The problem now is that the worldwide drop in fertility has removed new suckers from the system. People are also wising up and learning how things really work thanks to the internet. What happens next will be interesting.
Posted by: Conquistador | March 20, 2012 at 03:08 AM
you are doing a good thing, HS.
congratulations.
Posted by: Rivelino | March 20, 2012 at 05:00 AM
John Derbyshire (we all wish him to be well) visited in April 2010 University of Pennsylvania Law school and gave the talk:
"Revisiting Race and Remedies: Should the Government Play A Role in Eliminating Racial Disparities in Education and Employment?"
http://johnderbyshire.com/Opinions/HumanSciences/upennlaw.html
Quite interesting.
Your truly, Florida resident.
Posted by: Florida resident | March 20, 2012 at 07:19 AM
"The law school scam is only the tip of the iceberg. Civilization is a ponzy scheme fueled by the young and naive for the benefit of the old and cynical. The problem now is that the worldwide drop in fertility has removed new suckers from the system. People are also wising up and learning how things really work thanks to the internet. What happens next will be interesting."
Precisely. The survival of the current economic and monetary system (which is based on banks and debt with interest -- it has not always been the case) depends on a constant arrival of "fresh meat".
That's why so much advertising and politician discourse goes into encouraging young people to graduate, marry (= house in the banker mind) and have children.
The problem is that western civilization has reached a point where intelligent people do not wish anymore to have children or cannot have children. It is a technological and spiritual issue, i.e. one that CANNOT be suppressed or reverted. The very definition of a Pandora box.
The White generation Y (>1990), for example, will be mostly childless. Only the Black and Mestizo hordes still consent to do the ultimate sacrifice (giving life), out of their still-living belief in Christianity and their biological imperatives.
Posted by: Alex | March 20, 2012 at 07:26 AM
props where props is due, HS was the first to note the scam!
Posted by: Jefferson Raskin | March 20, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Lawyers are just professional bullies. Now that schools have implemented "anti-bullying" campaigns, being a lawyer is not as cool as it once was.
Posted by: BlogRaju | March 20, 2012 at 05:11 PM
Judging by some of these comments here, it appears that many ex- American middle class people are slowly learning how to be poor.
Now the big rule of how to be poor is that you do NOT try to escape from poverty. When you can get your hands on some cash, its spent as soon as possible on immediate wants and needs (anything from back rent to cheap entertainment -drugs are good for the latter), since you don't need much cash for this there is hope you can get your hands on a little cash later and continue the cycle. You definitely do not use the money for "investments" such as a house or education.
The reason poor people think this way is that in their experience, 99% of what is sold to them as "investments" turns out to be a scam! In contrast, if spent on rent or drugs the money is definitely being put for use for some immediate benefit, as opposed to a house that turns into a money pit or education that never seems to get turned into a job. American middle class people are getting to be scammed enough that they are starting to behave the same way.
Posted by: Ed | March 20, 2012 at 10:25 PM
Yeah, and 2 years ago we had the highest number of all-time of LSAT takers.
http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lsat_test_takers_jump_by_nearly_20_should_they_consider_the_alternatives/
So, I doubt if the students really know the reality. What is the point of a little fall and then rising for another record?
Posted by: Bruno Brazil | March 21, 2012 at 07:32 AM
Jd underground, half sigma, calico cat and other blogs who tell the reality have too little impact to
make reality known to everyone.
Posted by: Bruno Brazil | March 21, 2012 at 07:34 AM
"How are other grad school programs doing -- doctors, librarians, anyone who needs a postgraduate degree?
Librarians need postgraduate degrees?
Posted by: Anon | March 21, 2012 at 05:48 PM