At least this is my best guess based on the evidence I have so far.
Martin is walking around the community snooping at the condos. As a guy who has previously committed theft (the suspension in which he was caught with stolen girls’ jewelry and a screwdriver he presumably used to pry open lockers), he’s thinking about all of the criminal possibilities.
Then he notices some guy in a car tailing him. This is not the first time that people have found him suspicious. In fact, it’s a typical reaction from security guards, shopkeepers, and various regular middle-class people. If anything, Trayvon delights in intimidating middle-class people, because it give him a feeling of power. That’s why he purposefully cultivates a threatening demeanor which includes tattoos, gold teeth, a hoodie, and a badass attitude.
So when he notices he’s being tailed, he has a guilty mind and therefore runs away. But after running away, he feels angry at himself for such a cowardly act. He’s the badass Trayvon Martin, how dare some middle-class white Hispanic guy in a car make him run away like a girl. He is determined to go find the guy and teach him a lesson for looking at him the wrong way.
“Yo, why you be follin’ me?” Trayvon asks threateningly.
George Zimmerman is a little bit scared now. He tries to put up a bold front by asking “What are you doing around here?”
Travyon smells his fear, and then he attacks. We know the rest of the story based on previous blog posts about the evidence. One punch to his face breaks George’s nose, then Trayvon tackles him and bashes his head against the ground.
* * *
By the way, if you read the police report, you will see that the cops approached Zimmerman with guns drawn, and that Zimmerman was then handcuffed and brought back to the police station and questioned there, so the notion that he wasn't "arrested" because the cops are racist is merely semantics. The police chose not to call it an arrest after they determined that there was overwhelming evidence in favor of self-defense.
The police also held onto his gun as evidence.
Also, note that the cop states he heard Zimmerman say "I was yelling for someone to help me, but no one would help me." If someone had just come to help, Trayvon would still be alive and be yet another black youth charged with felony assault. But people, wisely self-interested, decided not to get any more involved than calling 911.
UPDATE, NEW INFO
There’s some additional evidence posted at the Orlando Sentinel last evening which I missed:
Zimmerman told them he lost sight of Trayvon and was walking back to his SUV when Trayvon approached him from the left rear, and they exchanged words.
Trayvon asked Zimmerman if he had a problem. Zimmerman said no and reached for his cell phone, he told police. Trayvon then said, "Well, you do now" or something similar and punched Zimmerman in the nose, according to the account he gave police.
Zimmerman fell to the ground and Trayvon got on top of him and began slamming his head into the sidewalk, he told police.
Zimmerman began yelling for help.
I think this somewhat contradicts Trayvon’s girlfriend’s account, but in both accounts they exchange words and then there’s a fight, no doubt started by Trayvon.
Also:
One witness, who has since talked to local television news reporters, told police he saw Zimmerman on the ground with Trayvon on top, pounding him — and was unequivocal that it was Zimmerman who was crying for help.
Zimmerman then shot Trayvon once in the chest at very close range, according to authorities.
When police arrived less than two minutes later, Zimmerman was bleeding from the nose, had a swollen lip and had bloody lacerations to the back of his head.
The key new info here is that the shot was at "very close range" and in the chest, which adds further evidence to my suspicion that Zimmerman did not have the opportunity to run away and that the "stand your ground" law is irrelevant and this would be self defense in any jurisdiction. Not that a shorter out-of-shape overweight injured man had much chance running away from a much taller younger guy who plays football.
"If anything, Trayvon delights in intimidating middle-class people, because it give him a feeling of power."
Interesting...I overheard a young janitor bragging about doing this with his friends at a mall several months ago.
Obviously the protection and peer pressure of the pack make you far more likely to respond in a hostile way immediately. Being alone without any friends egging you on, you might hesitate for a moment before remembering what you are "expected" to do.
Posted by: Fiddlesticks | March 27, 2012 at 10:36 AM
Zimmerman apparently lost Martin and was on his way back to his car when Martin approached him from the side and hit him (perhaps when his back was turned or slightly turned).
Zimmerman definitely had a head wound and a broken or bloody nose. He was heard screaming for help and Martin apparently went for his gun.
Zimmerman would likely be dead now if not for that gun. Which would be just fine with all the blacks and brain-dead whites wearing hoodies to express solidarity with the black criminal.
This may be a turning point in American life. Before, most of the cops and regular citizens who shot or subdued blacks in self defense (Bernie Goetz, the Rodney King cops) were white.
Due to changing demographics, those who shoot blacks are more and more likely to be Hispanics, Asians and Middle Eastern people.
Perhaps some of these groups will hold support rallies and issue bounties of their own against blacks.
Posted by: Bernie | March 27, 2012 at 10:46 AM
I agree with this story.
"So when he notices he’s being tailed, he has a guilty mind and therefore runs away. But after running away, he feels angry at himself for such a cowardly act."
but did this part really happen. did TM really run away? i find that hard to believe. he is really beginning to look like a thug.
[HS: Yes, Zimmerman said he ran away on the police call, and Martin's girlfriend who was talking to him on his cell phone says she told him to run away.]
Posted by: Rivelino | March 27, 2012 at 10:50 AM
"he’s thinking about all of the criminal possibilities"
You're overreaching there I think. While I agree that Zimmerman had reason to suspect Martin of criminal intentions, and while Martin was clearly no angel, there is no evidence that he was planning anything criminal at that particular time.
Posted by: Peter A | March 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM
"If someone had just come to help, Trayvon would still be alive and be yet another black youth charged with felony assault."
And now the media circus would be focusing on the racist white lynch mob that mercilessly beat an innocent black boy without provocation.
Posted by: JP | March 27, 2012 at 11:31 AM
There are still missing holes in this story: what happened before Zimmerman called 911? Was Z stalking M for a period of time to make Martin feel he was in danger? Had M already run away from what he thought was his stalker, and then they made contact again, at which point Z called 911? Or did Z call 911 within 30 seconds of 1st observing M?
M may have been in unfamiliar with the neighborhood. He may have thought he eluded Z but was lost and doubled back into Z's path, at which point the fatal confrontation ensued.
From that point on, it was two men who wouldn't back down, one was physically superior and the other had a gun.
Posted by: sobey | March 27, 2012 at 11:36 AM
There's still no proof that the pics with gold teeth and tattoos are of Martin. However, if that is the case, Obama's “if I had a son, he would look like Trayvon” remark is hilarious.
Posted by: JL | March 27, 2012 at 11:37 AM
What if George didn't fire the gun? It's already been stated by George that Martin was going for the gun. What if the two struggled for the gun and somehow the gun went off accidentally? Or what if Martin in trying to get the gun somehow pulled the trigger and ended up fatally killing himself? I don't think either of these guys were thinking clearly so I'm beginning to wonder if George killed anyone, much less in self-defense. I would assume though that George's hands were tested for gunpowder residue, but what about Trayvon's? Also, were there any bruisings on on's body or face? I have a son who's a boxer. He's been in his fair share of fights and like a mom, I freak out when I see so much as a scratch on him. His response to me is always, "You should have seen the other guy." This statement makes me wonder what injuries if any Martin sustained.
Posted by: BoxerMom | March 27, 2012 at 12:18 PM
Can we expect a Half Sigma live blogging of the event, should there be race riots?
[HS: I will be locked in my apartment which has a very bad view of the street.]
Posted by: Matt in RTP | March 27, 2012 at 12:30 PM
You'd make a terrible prosecutor, and an even worse defense attorney. It's really no wonder you've soured on the legal profession -- you have absolutely no business being a part of it, and this post illustrates why.
However, there's a real future for you in the emerging true crime fan-fic genre, where every dead black kid was a threatening thug and thinking of all the "criminal possibilities," and could "smell fear."
With this level of racial animosity and downright pants-wetting insecurity it's also no wonder that you're a terrible spokesperson for human bio-diversity.
This passage is one of the most atrocious pieces of shit you've ever written.
Posted by: Patrick | March 27, 2012 at 12:35 PM
Boxer Mom:
He did fire, at least that's what the police report says. Plus Z admitted to firing the shot. I think George's friend Joe Oliver is saying the same things you're getting at. I guess they could argue that in the struggle for the gun, it accidentally went off. If that were the case though, George could have said that out the gate. He admitted to shooting M which is the clencher.
As far as I know, no one has mentioned anything about injuries to T. I think his girlfriend says he might have been pushed but beyond that, nothing else. I don't see this whole thing going too much further. The one thing Z has done that may have been the smartest thing is stay in hiding and not said a word about any of this. The more #TeamTrayvon keeps talking, the more they seem to be inserting their foot in their mouths.
Posted by: WhyMe? | March 27, 2012 at 12:35 PM
"There's still no proof that the pics with gold teeth and tattoos are of Martin."
http://www.wagist.com/2012/dan-linehan/was-trayvon-martin-a-drug-dealer
The guy with the gold teeth had a tattoo that said "Sybrina".
The mother of Trayvon (AKA NO_LIMIT_NIGGA) is Sybrina Fulton.
Posted by: XYZhu | March 27, 2012 at 12:41 PM
The facts of the case really do not matter as it just serves as a possibility for the media to milk the white guilt. Such approach already bears its fruits. Good example is this guy:
"If my apology could reverse the bullet of prejudice which took the life of Trayvon Martin on February 26, 2012... it would be given in the blink of an eye."
"I am tired of blacks making up 39% of the American prison population, while representing only 13% of the society. I am tired of living with the knowledge that, while white people like me are more likely to use drugs, black people are more likely to be stopped, searched, arrested, and convicted for drug use."
"I am sick of learning about black men who are taught at a young age how to “behave” around white people – as if white racism is a black problem. No, its a white problem, and we need to deal with it."
"I am fed up with white guilt, not because there is nothing to feel guilty about, but because it implies that there is nothing to be done. Stop feeling bad and start doing good. Stop saying that you aren't racist – our society is – fix it!"
"If more words of condolence would end the system which labels blacks as intrinsically more dangerous than whites, I would write them. Instead I join those demanding justice. I offer my outrage. It is far more useful."
http://tinyurl.com/d3r7urv
Posted by: Slavek | March 27, 2012 at 12:43 PM
You'd think the race hustlers would be smart enough to be more...ahem...discriminating in choosing their battles. There must be a real dearth of unprovoked white-on-black crime that they have to settle for weak cases like this one. In a country of 300 million people, can't they find a better case that won't fall apart so quickly upon critical examination.
Posted by: Big Dubya | March 27, 2012 at 01:10 PM
Anyone have information that would allow us to look at the neighborhood involved on google maps or google earth?
[HS: The police report, which I linked to, has addresses in it.]
Posted by: CamelCaseRob | March 27, 2012 at 01:17 PM
His Twitter nickname trusts to be "No Limit Nigga" and yet they wanna throw stones because George may or may not have called him a "coon"???
Posted by: HolyCow | March 27, 2012 at 01:22 PM
Obama says, "If I had a son, he would like Trayvon Martin."
Someone should tell him that he has two daughters who eventually will start dating. Then we should ask him then: Would you let your daughters date someone like Trayvon Martin? I'm willing to bet my 401K he wuldn't
Posted by: HolyCow | March 27, 2012 at 01:25 PM
"With this level of racial animosity and downright pants-wetting insecurity it's also no wonder that you're a terrible spokesperson for human bio-diversity."
Nice use of shaming language! You probably find that most people cringe in fear and abjectly apologize when you call them a pants-wetting racist, right?
Posted by: JP | March 27, 2012 at 01:27 PM
Are we all so hyped up over a shooting between a twenty-something and a 17 year old in Florida, that we have no care for what the Supreme Court decides on universal healthcare?
Posted by: Team USA | March 27, 2012 at 01:53 PM
Back in the bad old days, before the Internet, the MSM would have gotten away with their lies and distortions about this case. And their outrage is certainly, well, shall we say, selective. Concerning the recent shooting death of 9 month old (African-American) Delric Miller of Detroit (in some sort of gang shootout, with an AK-47, no less), Bernard Goldberg wrote:
Hundreds of young black men are shot and killed in this country every year. In almost all the cases, the shooter is also black. Try to name one of those dead black men. Just one.
Journalists who work for the national news networks, or major American newspapers with a national reach, don’t spend a lot of time shining a spotlight on dysfunctional behavior in parts of black America. Stories about such things in black neighborhoods, imposed on black people by black people, would be tantamount to airing dirty laundry in front of the whole country. And that is something liberal journalists who are proud of their good racial manners (along with their friends in the civil rights establishment) do not want to do.
President Obama said we need some national “soul searching” in the wake of the tragic death of young Trayvon Martin. Looking inward is a good thing. So let’s have that soul searching. And while we’re at it, let’s ask ourselves why the death of a young black man in Florida means so much more to Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and so many other concerned Americans than does the death of a baby in Detroit who was murdered in his sleep.
(http://www.bernardgoldberg.com/trayvon-martin-and-media-hypocrisy/)
....
Thousands of black people shoot each other every year. During a recent weekend in Chicago, there were 40 shootings, almost all black-on-black. Yet this is ignored by the MSM hacks who shed crocodile tears over Trayvon Martin.
Posted by: Black Death | March 27, 2012 at 02:12 PM
Thanks for all your posts, Half Sigma. You were on this better than anybody else, and every day I have enjoyed reading your blog posts and the comments that accompany them.
I have learned a lot. For one thing, I may have to give up on the idea of ever moving to Florida. Too many blacks. I hadn't realized that before. (The reason I say maybe is that there may be some areas of Florida that are very white.)
[HS: The west coast of Florida is a lot whiter.
And thanks, I get so many mean-spirited comments, it's nice to get a comment like this once a month.]
Posted by: Park Slope Pubby | March 27, 2012 at 02:25 PM
I thank you too, Half. Good job.
Posted by: g | March 27, 2012 at 03:50 PM
"And thanks, I get so many mean-spirited comments, it's nice to get a comment like this once a month." - Half Sigma
I can't even get my comments about leftist Jews past moderation but you allow personal attacks against you? I also thought Patrick crossed a line. Hey leprechaun how about you show some more gratitude towards the guy kind enough to host this blog.
Posted by: Conquistador | March 27, 2012 at 03:58 PM
First, so far as I know, incident of rioting & looting: http://www.local10.com/news/Police-Trayvon-protesters-ransack-store/-/1717324/9719674/-/xctonpz/-/index.html
As for the catch-phrase "I am Trayvon"(TM), entirely too apropos, no?
BTW, HS, awesome blog. I've always appreciated the work you put into it. I'll never go to NYC, but if ever paths cross, I'll buy you a beer.
Posted by: AllanF | March 27, 2012 at 04:50 PM
"However, there's a real future for you in the emerging true crime fan-fic genre, where every dead black kid was a threatening thug."
As opposed to an innocent cherub out getting skittles and ice tea for his young brother before being accosted by the evil white racist.
Posted by: Bernie | March 27, 2012 at 05:00 PM
Suspended 3 times in one year???? At that rate, he should have been expelled! From what I understand, he was under the latest suspension for the grafitti at the time of his death. Instead of getting Skittles to watch a stupid game, he should have been grounded in his room writing a 10 page apology and letter about the consequences of defacing public property. He's lucky he wasn't my kid! No wonder our youth are so messed up.
Posted by: Sparetherod | March 27, 2012 at 06:25 PM
"His Twitter nickname trusts to be No Limit Nigga and yet they wanna throw stones because George may or may not have called him a coon???"
THANK YOU!!!!! Finally somebody has pointed this out!
Posted by: Peaches | March 27, 2012 at 10:40 PM
One quick fact about any possible "Race Wars", according to Wikipedia... "although the Aryan Brotherhood prison gang makes up less than 1% of the prison population, it is responsible for up to 21% of murders in the federal prison system".
...a word from the wise, be careful what you wish for motherfuckers!
HS keep up the great work.
Posted by: Rise of Rome | March 27, 2012 at 11:45 PM
Posted by: Patrick | March 27, 2012 at 12:35 PM
I blame Half Sigma for this atrocious piece of shit as well:
http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/612551_Police--MU-student-severely-beat--kidnapped-girlfriend.html
Shittiest sentence?
"On Friday night, he stood prominently at an on-campus rally regarding the death of Florida teenager Trayvon Martin, holding a sign saying, "I am Trayvon Martin."
Posted by: Fo' Shizzle | March 28, 2012 at 12:33 AM
@ Fo' Shizzle
I bet that black dude's girlfriend is white considering his status as a college athlete. He probably got angry when she wouldn't express solidarity for Trayvon and decided to take out his rage against whitey on her. I also suspect that at 24 and with no NFL career his time in the limelight was coming to an end. Getting dissed by his girlfriend cuz she was probably out partying is just the beginning of his decline and he knows it. I've always wondered what these ex-star athletes feel like when the prestige fades, "friends" disappear, and the girls stop calling.
Posted by: Conquistador | March 28, 2012 at 12:48 PM
"The key new info here is that the shot was at "very close range" and in the chest, which adds further evidence to my suspicion that Zimmerman did not have the opportunity to run away and that the "stand your ground" law is irrelevant and this would be self defense in any jurisdiction."
So in any jurisdiction where I have a permit to carry a concealed handgun, I can provoke someone into a fist fight, perhaps even throwing the first punch, then claim that my life is in danger and shoot them dead with my gun?
What is basically wrong here is that George Zimmerman pursued and confronted Trayvon Martin, a fist fight ensued, and George Zimmerman brought a gun to a fist fight. Zimmerman claims Martin started the fist fight, but Zimmerman's actions by pursing and confronting Martin were hardly non-threatening.
Did Trayvon Martin see George Zimmerman's gun and assume that his life was threatened? Did he attack George Zimmerman on the stand your ground principal that he was defending himself?
What would you think if stranger with a hand gun in his waist band pursed you at night?
Posted by: mikeca | March 28, 2012 at 11:38 PM