Latest poll on Zimmerman

Latest Rasmussen poll shows that 40% think that Zimmerman acted in self defense, and only 24% think he committed murder.

Of course a person’s guilt is judged by a jury and not by public opinion, but given that the real evidence of the case is far more favorable to Zimmerman than what most of the poll respondents heard about from the MSM, this suggests that the prosecution won’t be able to get a jury to unanimously convict.

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If Zimmerman didn’t have a gun on him, I think that Martin (if he had been found) would have been prosecuted for aggravated assault, and he would have been convicted. He just would have become another member of a pretty very large cohort of young black males convicted of aggravated assault. No one would care about the case at all.

People might say that if Martin were alive, he’d tell a different story, but the reality of the vast majority of criminal trials is that the defendants say nothing in their own behalf. If he was stupid enough to say anything to the police, his statement would be more likely be incriminating than of any help to his defense. Nothing you say to the police is every helpful in court, even if you are innocent. (I am sure that Zimmerman will find this out at trial, because he probably embellished the story to make himself look more innocent, and any inconsistencies will be picked apart by prosecutors as an implication of guilt.)

So anyway, if without the gun being fired this would be an open and shut case of aggravated assault, how can it not be self defense that he fired, while on the ground and unable to run away, to prevent a continuing aggravated assault?

Comments

[Doug1]

Zimmerman really might have suffered a serious concussion or coma if he hadn't shot Trayvon. Head poundings against concrete are cumulative in their injury to the brain.

[MRM]

I think I commented this here before, but if this isnt thrown out, it will lead to an acquittal or hung jury mistrial which would give the prosecution the choice to try it again, which they won't. It might sound dumb to connect the two, but it would almost be better for Obama to lose in Nov and this trial go away maybe a week or two after. The mainstream media would be too obsessed with the Obama loss and the post-mortem on his presidency to give Zimmerman much attention. Look at Ted Kennedy's career for how the moon landing helped the nation move on from Chappaquidick.

[Camlost]

All of my black friends on Facebook have gradually stopped squawking about the Trayvon issue.

[mikeca]

"If Zimmerman didn’t have a gun on him, I think that Martin (if he had been found) would have been prosecuted for aggravated assault, and he would have been convicted. "

If Zimmerman did not have a gun, he probably would never have gotten out of his car to search for Martin.

You also have to ask exactly why Martin punched Zimmerman in the first place. It could be because Zimmerman use a racial slur, but Martin's girl friend did not hear that on the phone. I think it is much more likely that Martin saw the gun Zimmerman was carrying. Zimmerman's father said that Zimmerman was reaching in his pocket for his cell phone when Martin punched him. If Martin saw the gun and thought Zimmerman was reaching for it, he could easily conclude that Zimmerman was a mugger that was about to hold him up. Zimmerman when asked had failed to identify himself or explain why he had followed Martin.

The Florida stand your ground law, in fact allows Martin to punch Zimmerman, if Martin reasonably believed that Zimmerman was about to use unlawful force to rob him. And if Zimmerman then pulls his gun to threaten Martin, the stand your ground law empowers Martin to kill him in self defense.

This is the total insanity of laws like the Florida stand your ground law and why it is insane to have untrained armed citizens running around chasing suspicious people. A trained law enforcement officer, even out of uniform, would have immediately identified himself and explained why he was following Martin. Zimmerman failed to do that and created an explosive situation where the Florida stand your ground law may well have empowered both men to kill each other.

I do not think Zimmerman can be found guilty of murder, but I think he should be tried for man slaughter.

[Steve Johnson]

The jury will be at least 50% black.

No black will ever vote to fully acquit. Any non-blacks on the jury will acquiesce to bullying and vote to convict on manslaughter.

[Firepower]

Haven't you heard - blacks can stack a jury the OTHER way,too.

Reverse OJ - bam.

[Dice]

Meanwhile in Atlantic City:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/05/21/2-canadian-women-stabbed-in-atlantic-city-attack/

[pconroy]

IMO, Zimmerman would be dead if he didn't have a gun on him.

What sickens me is that the media keep calling Martin a kid - a 6' 3" football player is no kid.

[theakinet]

Via the Orlando Sentinel:

Witness 6 [The mysterious "John?]

This witness lived a few feet from where Trayvon and Zimmerman had their fight. On the night of the shooting, he told Serino he saw a black man on top of a lighter-skinned man "just throwing down blows on the guy, MMA-style," a reference to mixed martial arts.

He also said the one calling for help was "the one being beat up," a reference to Zimmerman.

But three weeks later, when he was interviewed by an FDLE agent, the man said he was no longer sure which one called for help.

"I truly can't tell who, after thinking about it, was yelling for help just because it was so dark out on that sidewalk," he said.

He also said he was no longer sure Trayvon was throwing punches. The teenager may have simply been keeping Zimmerman pinned to the ground, he said.

He did not equivocate, though, about who was on top.

"The black guy was on top," he said.
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-05-22/news/os-george-zimmerman-key-witnesses-20120522_1_witnesses-change-shooting-fdle-agent

The story details how witness that led police to not charge Zimmerman have changed their stories in a way that suggests the shooting was unjustified:

Witness 12

A young mother who is also a neighbor in the town-home community never gave a recorded interview to Sanford police, according to prosecution records released last week. She first sat down for an audio-recorded interview with an FDLE agent March 20, more than three weeks after the shooting.

During that session, she said she saw two people on the ground immediately after the shooting and was not sure who was on top, Zimmerman or Trayvon.

"I don't know which one. … All I saw when they were on the ground was dark colors," she said.

Six days later, however, she was sure: It was Zimmerman on top, she told trial prosecutor Bernie de la Rionda during a 21/2-minute recorded session.

"I know after seeing the TV of what's happening, comparing their sizes, I think Zimmerman was definitely on top because of his size," she said.

[Theakinet]

"The Florida stand your ground law, in fact allows Martin to punch Zimmerman, if Martin reasonably believed that Zimmerman was about to use unlawful force to rob him. And if Zimmerman then pulls his gun to threaten Martin, the stand your ground law empowers Martin to kill him in self defense."

This is true, I recently read the SYG law (http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0700-0799/0776/0776.html). If Martin was alive he could make a SYG defense under FL law to avoid an assault charge by claiming Zimmerman was engaged in intimidation (a crime in every state) and Zimmerman's actions caused him great fear (plausible given Zimmerman's 911 call that Martin ran away, and the girlfriend saying Martin kept talking about a "creepy" guy following him).

But here's an interesting twist:

776.041 Use of force by aggressor.—The justification described in the preceding sections of this chapter is not available to a person who:

(2) Initially provokes the use of force against himself or herself, unless:
(a) Such force is so great that the person reasonably believes that he or she is in imminent danger of death or great bodily harm and that he or she has exhausted every reasonable means to escape such danger ***other than the use of force which is likely to cause death or great bodily harm to the assailant***; or
(b) In good faith, the person withdraws from physical contact with the assailant and indicates clearly to the assailant that he or she desires to withdraw and terminate the use of force, but the assailant continues or resumes the use of force.

So Corey can point to this as the reason why Zimmerman's being charged, then tell the jury she wants Murder 2, but will accept Manslaughter. O'Mara would be forced to defend Zimmerman's trailing, then will have to argue Martin had right to punch Zimmerman, then show Zimmerman tried, repeatedly and without force, to escape, or calm Martin down in order to stop Martin's punches.

So now the case is about whether it's reasonable to conclude that getting beat up will kill you: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2012/05/george_zimmerman_claims_he_was_fighting_for_his_life_how_deadly_is_an_unarmed_teenager_.html

[Firepower]

Polls? Useless.

EVERYBODY thought OJ was guilty.

[Bernie]

"The Florida stand your ground law, in fact allows Martin to punch Zimmerman, if Martin reasonably believed that Zimmerman was about to use unlawful force to rob him. And if Zimmerman then pulls his gun to threaten Martin, the stand your ground law empowers Martin to kill him in self defense."

All this is moot if Martin punched Zimmerman from behind as he was walking back to his car and hit him repeatedly on the ground causing those documented injuries to the back of GZs head and a broken nose.

The area is not heavily black and there are likely to only be 1-2 blacks on the jury with the rest being white or Hispanic. And as more information seeps out it will only be blacks and the most leftist of whites who defend Martin.

Zimmerman walks and there may only be mild rioting by blacks.

[ravenshrike]

Florida does not allow conviction on a lesser charge. So it's Murder 2 or nothing.

[JP]

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-05-22/news/os-george-zimmerman-key-witnesses-20120522_1_witnesses-change-shooting-fdle-agent

The prosecutor is obviously browbeating witnesses into changing their accounts. That's bad news for Zimmerman.

[Otis the Sweaty]

If Zim gets off, can the Feds press charges? They got around the double jeapordy for the Rodney King beating so maybe they can pull a similar stunt with Zimmerman.

[HS: The Supreme Court has ruled that double jeopardy doesn't apply if the feds prosecute someone for the same crime as the state just did.]

[Tanizaki]

"Florida does not allow conviction on a lesser charge. So it's Murder 2 or nothing."

Where does this statement come from? The prosecutor can certainly request lesser included offenses.