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May 15, 2012

Comments

I don't think the lead will last until Nov. The Dems will be relentless in pushing the perception that the Republicans are engaged in a war against women.


Obama has a real Get Out the Vote problem- he cant be the first black President anymore so that motivation is gone. He cant promise people a bunch of freebies its since obvious he cant delivery on those.

He is going to need to motivate people to vote because they Fear/Hate Romney. This Cranbrook bully thing (plus the level of research going into the Obama enemies list)is something I think we will see a lot more of.

Romney is running an incredibly shrewd campaign. He is giving Obama just enough rope to hang himself. No hardball, no personal attacks, just being patient and letting the American people get tired of Obama's try hard and desperate sounding reelection sound bites.

Proof that looks are everything. The first thing anyone says about Romney is that he "looks presidential" AKA handsome/tall.

The subtext of this post is to discuss the role looks play in life.

How can this poll mean anything? Today Obama was on the View, basking in the glow of daytime TV love. Media outlets such as womens' magazines and television (including gossip rags) are overwhelming pro-O.

That will sustain him with women.

I agree that Romney is the most media friendly Republican candidate but I doubt he's a serious contender for the female vote (thought maybe the elderly women in FL will find him "handsome").

[HS: Older women have very strong voter turnout.]

@ Odds (lol)

The question is, if this tactic stops working, will team Romney have the balls to play for real?

I can't believe that people here seriously believe Romney can win. The best we can hope for is to lose with dignity, like Kerry lost to Bush Jr.

When you are an incumbent, the economy is everything. The economy sucks but it is substantially improved from where it was when Obama took over. I think voters have adjusted to this economy as the new normal.

The only way Obama could lose is if the economy gets substantially worse or for gas to go to the moon. Neither of those things are going to happen.

Get ready for for more years of Obama.

Otis: "I think voters have adjusted to this economy as the new normal."

The last three months, unemployment has stayed the same once, and dropped by 0.1% twice. The drops were entirely due to people leaving the workforce rather than finding employment. Job creation has been poor and declining.

In response to each of the last three reports, Obama's poll numbers have declined - indicating disappointment with the economy that is hovering in place, rather than acceptance of the "new normal."

No wonder they are so keen to paint Romney as a mean High School bully.

Japan's unemployment rate hasn't meaningfully declined in about 20 years, despite no immigration and a shrinking population. People there just have gotten used to it. People here pretty much feel the same way.

When the 2010 midterms happened, everybody was still talking about the economy and how much it sucked. Now I never hear anybody talk about the economy. People just kind of accept the current economy as a given and don't even mention it. Even Romney isn't bringing up the economy that much.

"Japan's unemployment rate hasn't meaningfully declined in about 20 years, despite no immigration and a shrinking population. People there just have gotten used to it."

1) Japan's unemployment rate has more than doubled in the last 20 years, but despite that, its current unemployment rate is only 4.5% -- basically, what ours was during boom times.

2) Japan has had 7 prime ministers in the last 10 years, so people there apparently aren't too complacent about their economy to oust incumbents. So maybe not the best example for your purposes.

"Even Romney isn't bringing up the economy that much."

The MSM has been abetting Obama in attempting to shift the focus to social issues (think of the BS questions about birth control, etc. during the GOP debates), plus Romney's dog riding on the roof of his car, and Romney cutting some gay kid's hair in high school. And Romney has been playing defense.

If he's smart enough to go on offense, he will hammer the economy home (and even if he isn't, his Super PACs will). Most Americans are worse off than they were when Obama was elected: their houses are worth less, they are paying 2x as much for gas, they or someone they know has been laid off or is underemployed, etc.

Politics is becoming more racial. So, Whites (including White women) will move toward the GOP. Having Romney be fairly bland probably helps with vapid single White women. And some of the more "extreme" GOP candidates might have turned off these women for sure.

Look for most Whites to vote GOP in larger numbers going forward.

You're going to be very disappointed when Obama's EC total is pretty much what it was last time.

Most whites already do vote for the GOP

" Japan's unemployment rate has more than doubled in the last 20 years, but despite that, its current unemployment rate is only 4.5% -- basically, what ours was during boom times."

Japan is full of Japanese people. The unemployment rate for whites with a college degree isn't much higher than the unemployment rate in Japan. Japan also has a stricter way of calculating unemployment and has no HB1 Visas.

> This Cranbrook bully thing

...is the reason Romney's poll numbers with women have skyrocketed. Up until now he has been the polite guy, now we know that at least in high school he was a bit of bad ass.

Women are now realizing that Romney was the guy who made them quiver with sexual arousal in high school.

Hell, the tough leader-of-the-pack who becomes a family man and makes hundreds of millions of dollars. It practically reads like those female porn lit novels.

-MV

Tactics, schmantics. Romney is White. Obama is black. Game over. If the last election had been like any election from decades ago, the Democrat would have won in a massive landslide. Think: We had a once in a century financial meltdown, the Dow crashing, gold soaring, and a near depression. Oh, and a trillion dollar war that accomplished nothing. Normally, the Dems would have won 60% of the White vote.

But even in that environment, the majority of Whites went for McCain (the worst candidate in generations). So, with a more reasonable GOP candidate, Romney will get much more of the White vote.

Obama will get black, brown and Jewish voters, but there will be an ever so slight downturn in enthusiasm. Put it all together, it spells GOP victory.

The difference between white male and white female voting patterns has been greatly exaggerated. According to CNNs exit polling, Bush in 2004 won 61% of the white male vote and 55-56% of the white female vote.

The reason Romney is winning and is very likely to win is because the economy is still moribund. The economy is so weak that Obama can't even come up with even the most politically spun defense of his economic performance.

And not only that, but the economy is likely to get worse as the Eurozone crisis continues and China's bubble continues to burst. If growth remains this weak or gets worse (especially if there is a negative jobs and/or GDP number before the election) Romney could spend the rest of the campaign on a Caribbean island and still blowout Obama in November.

If Obama were running against a socialcon, he might have been able trick him into fighting over social issues instead of Obama's weakpoint, the economy. But Romney, as a country club business Republican from Massachusetts, can't really be painted with the "Evangelical kook" attack. As a result, Obama can't and won't get any polling traction on social issues the way he could if Santorum were the nominee.

"You're going to be very disappointed when Obama's EC total is pretty much what it was last time."

If the election was tomorrow, Romney would win. Its been said many times, a president's job approval rating typically is pretty close to the share of the vote he receives, and the undecideds typically vote against the incumbent.

Nationally, Obama is having trouble cracking 47% approval among likely voters. So currently, he is likely to get about 47% of the national popular vote. But, of course, we don't have one national election; we have 51 tiny winner-take-all elections (other than Maine and I think Nebraska, who allow their EC votes to be divvied up).

But the state by state numbers don't favor Obama nearly as much as they might seem. In fact, they really don't favor him at all.

Let's say Wisconsin shows 45% for Obama and 41% for Romney, with 2% favoring a third party candidate and the remaining 12% undecided. Well, that would give the appearance of Obama being favored to win Wisconsin. In reality, however, most of those undecideds would end up going for Romney (if well established trends continue). So, the actual vote would be more like 48% Obama, 50% Romney, and 2% third party.

A number of states are currently projected for Obama, but with Obama holding a small lead, and a sizable percentage undecided. If that situation holds until late October, Romney most likely wins those states.

So right now, the toss-ups appear likely to go to Romney. Florida, North Carolina (a lock, really; but polling doesn't show this yet), Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, etc.

Several traditional Dem states are currently called as only leaning to Obama, with exactly the scenario described above for Wisconsin. If the election were held tomorrow, Romney would win several of them. Wisconsin, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon, Pennsylvania are in play. Several will go to Romney.

It should go without saying, but of course its too early to make any absolute predictions. But right now, all signs point to Romney.

Obama's being black has been and will be an electoral negative because there is a (justified) white voter bias against black candidates.

In 2008, Obama only won by single digits in an electoral environment that ranks among the worst the GOP has ever had to face. Obama really should have won by a double digit margin, not single. If, on the other hand, the Democrats had nominated Hillary Clinton, she would have been well ahead before Lehman collapsed (Obama and McCain were more or less tied right before Lehman) and almost certainly would have won by double digits on election day.

"Florida, North Carolina (a lock, really; but polling doesn't show this yet), Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, etc."

North Carolina and Virginia are Southern states and should be counted as safe Republican regardless of what the polls indicate. They're only listed as "tossups" because Obama won them in 2008. But those were just lucky wins that came about because Lehman imploded just before the November ballot. NC and Va are safe.

"The unemployment rate for whites with a college degree isn't much higher than the unemployment rate in Japan."

What percent of white Americans have a college degree?

"The blogger Whiskey was also right about this.

In January I wrote:

Romney does much better with women than with men, confirming what the blogger Whiskey has been saying."

Come on, that sexually inadequate nerd says the same thing in all his comments. He's an Omega dork who pretends to be a victimized Beta male and constantly complains about White women craving the Alpha male of his nightmares.

If Romney was behind Obama with the female vote Whiskey would say it was because Romney was an old fashioned White beta male that women HATE HATE HATE. And that Obama was the sexy Alpha male they all want.

Romney IS a classic Beta male, albeit a tall, handsome, and very successful one. But still a classic beta male.

In Whiskey's world he should be hated and unemployed bikers, ghetto gangbangers, male strippers and Kevin Federline should be getting the female vote.

There will be riots after the election. Tha Bruthas gonna riot because dey happy and joyful or riot because dey sad and angry. Oddly (or not oddly) enough, NYC will avoid most of the trouble. But Baltimore, Chicago, St. Louis, etc...get ready for the fun.

"There will be riots after the election."

If so it will be the SWPL crowd and the Hipsters (ironic rioting??) in parts of Brooklyn, Madison, Portland and their usual hangouts.

Niggahs in Baltimomurderland aint rioting over Obama's defeat.

@TUJ

NC and VA may not be quite the lock the GOP thinks they'll be. The rot from the northeast has spread to NC in the form of huge numbers of "enlightened" yuppie types in the Research Triangle counterculture types in Asheville and western NC. In VA, the rot takes the form of the flipping of the formerly strong GOP DC suburbs: Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax County.

Nevertheless, Romney's campaign has been impressive of late, with his earlier blunders ("severely conservative", "I like firing people", "I'm not concerned about the very poor", Etch-A-Sketch) already forgotten. If he doesn't make any more, and if his team continues to offer quick responses to Obama's lies, he just might have a shot. I didn't think so a month ago.

Posted by: Rifleman | May 15, 2012 at 11:20 PM

Cue The Clash song.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzXkbV4lEKU

"Romney IS a classic Beta male, albeit a tall, handsome, and very successful one. But still a classic beta male."

No, I don't think so. He's the kind of man women want to sang--handsome, very bright, driven to succeed, and behind the scenes super competitive, but his manners cover that up.


What I was used to finding in women's attitudes toward Obama was either "I love him" or "God, that guy is stuck on himself--what for? He's sooo skinny."

Lately, though, I've noticed a third response which is simply, "He's not at all what I thought."

Bodes well for Romney.

LOL. Wants to "snag," not "sang."

"NC and VA may not be quite the lock the GOP thinks they'll be. The rot from the northeast has spread to NC in the form of huge numbers of "enlightened" yuppie types in the Research Triangle counterculture types in Asheville and western NC. In VA, the rot takes the form of the flipping of the formerly strong GOP DC suburbs: Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax County."

I definitely think NC is safely in the GOP's column. 2008 was an aberration.

To see how conservative NC really is, look at Amendment 1 -- defeated only in the counties of Durham, Wake, Orange, Chatham (the core of RTP), Buncombe(hippies), Wataugua (hippies and college students), Mecklenburg (Charlotte metro), and Dare (lots of wealthy, retired Northerners, big tourist destination).

"Romney IS a classic Beta male, albeit a tall, handsome, and very successful one. But still a classic beta male. In Whiskey's world he should be hated and unemployed bikers, ghetto gangbangers, male strippers and Kevin Federline should be getting the female vote." - Rifleman


Romney is the alpha male of every woman's wet dream. He's got it all plus he's a faithful family man. Guys like him are very rare.

"NC and VA may not be quite the lock the GOP thinks they'll be. The rot from the northeast has spread to NC in the form of huge numbers of "enlightened" yuppie types in the Research Triangle. In VA, the rot takes the form of the flipping of the formerly strong GOP DC suburbs: Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax."


It wasn't "rot from the north" that changed things. Bill Clinton did. Regardless of what anyone thinks of him he demonstrated that he was tough, driven, competent, successful, and his affairs gave him a sexy JFK vibe to women. Clinton changed this country from conservative leaning into SWPL. The idea that his presidency had very little lasting impact is absolutely wrong.

"Romney is the alpha male of every woman's wet dream. He's got it all plus he's a faithful family man. Guys like him are very rare.

Posted by: Conquistador"

Nope. No women have wet dreams about Romney. He maybe alpha to other White males (and guys like you might hero worship the guy) but to women and to men who know better he is a classic beta male provider/do what daddy says/serve wifey type of guy. He is an extraordinary version no doubt.

All women want a rich, good looking, faithful, provider husband. The problem is guys like that don't really exist.

Good Lord, who gives a shit about horse politics, especially at this stage? The election's six months away.

The euphoria for Romney is a reminder that people confuse what will happen with what they want to happen. Bush defeated Kerry. Legitimately. For a challenger to overthrow an incumbent, you need at least two things: 1) a shitty economy; 2) a charismatic candidate.

Today people do not blame Obama for putting the economy in the toilet. They complain he has not gotten us out, but the bad things didn't happen on his watch. Romney does not strike me as a remarkably gifted politician. Neither did Bush (but the guy had superior connections).

When Bush was up for re-election, the Democrat polled significantly higher, provided he was unidentified. Once the Democrat has a name and face, their numbers drop.

Romney now has to make his lurch to the center without alienating motivated, rank-n'-filers.

But, if you think Romney's money, then place significant bets on it. Me -- I wouldn't put cash up against the incumbent, not at this stage.

Romney wins. Just analyze: All Democratic voting blocks will turn out - blacks and browns and SWPLs, but I think we can agree they won't match enthusiasm level of '08. So, let's like they are 98% as strong. That takes a percentage point off Obama in general election. White conservatives will vote the same for GOP as before. The main difference will be White moderates and independents. They will vote stronger for GOP.

Obama won 43% of the White vote in '08, and it will most assuredly slip below 40% this time. Overall, his job approval among Whites is around 37% - down 6 percent from 08 election. Since Whites are way more than half of voters, that is at least 4 percentage points overall. So, adding that to the 1 percent above, Obama goes from 53% in 08 to at best 48%. And much worse in key states.

He's toast.

A lot depends on who Romney selects as his VP. Obama also seems pretty confident (he's now openly endorsing gay marriage). Does he know something we don't? Is the fix in?

The fix? You can't fix elections in America. In 50 years when America is Brazil you will be able to but not now.

It's not just Obama that is confident, the libtards on DailyKos think that not only is victory a given, but that it will be a cakewalk.

Obama's endorsement about gay marriage is not because of his confidence but because he needs the fundraising help and he wants to make Romney talk about social issues. It can drive swing voters to Obama and dishearten Romney's own retarded base.

"Romney IS a classic Beta male,"

There is nothing women find sexier than a beta male who is tall, good looking and rich. It's the best of both worlds.

"Clinton changed this country from conservative leaning into SWPL."

No Clinton made the country far more (economically) conservative. He moved the Democrats to right and is widely seen as a traitor to the left.

Claiming Romney is beta is absurd. He's beyond question or doubt an alpha. A super alpha in fact.

Of a type to be sure. The most provider and loyal type.

He is indeed most family oriented women's husband material wet dream. He's not most super slut nympho girl's wet dream, true.

People think Romney isn't alpha because they don't understand what alpha is. It is not synonymous with asshole; not all assholes are alpha and not all alphas are assholes.

Alphas are natural leaders. They are in charge; when they walk into a room, they put themselves in charge, and other men will naturally fall into line. Women are drawn to this because they are drawn to power, because it improves the odds of survival of their offspring (due to inherited traits and social position/access to resources). Sure, women often mistake an beta asshole for an alpha, but even a natural PUA might not be a true alpha when he's in the company of other men. And once that PUA "alpha" is put in his place by the true alpha, the women will lose interest.

Obama is most likely not alpha; so if Romney is, he will win over many women after the debates. And he most likely is - you don't have his success as a CEO and re-organizing a failing Olympics if other men won't fall in line to your dominance.

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