Romney pulling away

Yesterday's Gallup tracking poll shows Romney pulling to a 52% for 45% lead among likely voters.

As I predicted on Tuesday, Romney's momentum would not be stopped by the debate, because Romney only had to be as good as Obama and not soundly beat him, because Romney already had the momentum.

The key to Romney's win on Tuesday was his strong likeability among female voters, which I observed by watching the bars at the bottom of the screen on CNN. Romney's worst answer was the Middle East and Libya question, but foreign policy is a guy topic. Romney's best answer was when he was asked about the wage gap. Women LOVED his answer to that question. This is ironic, because Candy Crone probably figured that question skewed against Romney, but in fact Romney really rocked that answer with his explanation about how he hired more women to work for him and how he gave them flexible hours.

We are lucky that the abortion issue didn't come up during the debate, because no issue hurts Romney more than the abortion issue which is toxic to undecided voters. The final debate is about foreign policy, so that means that Romney should be able to escape the debates without having to talk about abortion.

My advice to Romney is to work on the soft sell during the final debate. Romney is at his best when he's not putting down Obama, but when he's describing his vision which sounds so much kindler and gentler than the Hitler-like figure that the MSM told everyone was the "real" Romney.

Comments

[Ivan]

Gallup poll is an outlier. No way Romney is ahead by 7 points. If you average all the polls the race is tied, and Obama is leading in state polls.

[HS: The other polls are using an incorrect formula to determine likely voters. Remember, in normal elections, young people and non-Asian minorities are less likely to vote, and they are being overcounted.]

[asdf]

Romney is still just 37% on intrade, but he's been tracking up.

Although I don't expect Romney to implement policies that are any better then Obama he would be a much better figurehead. Romney is all American as apple pie and would set an example for middle class values.

[XVO]

HS, sorry to be off topic, but it might be interesting if you did a post on South Africa (I haven't seen you do one yet).

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21564846-south-africa-sliding-downhill-while-much-rest-continent-clawing-its-way-up

[HS: Without white people to run the country, they country is sinking down because blacks are unable to maintain the infrastructure created by whites. The same thing happened to Detroit here in the United States.]

[r]

Romney is not an example of the middle class or the upper middle class. He is the top 5000 in terms of income and wealth in the United States of America. He would not be able to understand anyone outside of his class. He is a very rich dude who could not relate to a working class or middle class person to save his life. If his career at Bain Capital is any indication, once he is in power, he will load up the U.S. with even more debt, take the money, sell off everything to China and other foreign powers, take the money, and then burn the country down for the insurance money. All the money will go to the Cayman Islands or Switzerland, and be in his wife's name. He is a real fun guy.

[anonymous]

If it weren't for massive voter fraud, Romney would have this in the bag

[map]

Intrade is not useful because it it too thinly traded.

[Insider]

The poll was open for five days pre-debate and one day post-debate. Seems like your proclamations about the second debate are a bit premature.

[Ivan]

HalfSigma: Gallup changed their likely voter prediction methodology about a week ago. No one really knows what they are doing there. There is no "correct" formula because people lie, change their minds and sample sizes are small .
Sure enough, if young people and NAMs don't show up at election day, Romney wins. But no one really knows if they will.

[Conquistador]

@ XVO

South Africa is a horror story and a stark warning of what's to come. Black rule leads to poverty, crime, and decay everywhere. White South Africans even fear being victims of genocide. It's no exaggeration given Africa's history. White separatism and militia movements are what's preventing it.

[Data Scientist]

HS, I wouldn't put all my faith in a single poll, and certainly not Gallup. As a statistician, I trust Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. Don't pay too much attention to his commentary, but his data are excellent.

Why do you trust a single poll -- Gallup -- more than weighted aggregators such as RCP and 538?

[DaveinHackensack]

"Without white people to run the country, they country is sinking down because blacks are unable to maintain the infrastructure created by whites."

That doesn't explain the second part of the Economist's headline, "while much of the rest of the continent is clawing its way up".

"The poll was open for five days pre-debate and one day post-debate."

The latest latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters was open for one day pre-debate and two days post-debate and has Romney up by two: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney has also led in the RCP average consistently since the first debate and today moved ahead on the RCP electoral map (without tossups; Obama still leads with tossups).

The first debate was the key one, because it shattered the picture of Romney painted by Obama's negative ads. The subsequent VP debate and the second presidential debate fired up the Dem base, which could help turnout, but probably didn't win any new undecideds for them.

[JP]

@r,

Obama does not understand anyone outside the elite either. He sneers at those proles ("bitter clingers"). He cannot understand even an ordinary middle class person to save his life. Why should he, since he has never moved in those circles, and like most SWPLs, taken great pains to avoid them?

"once he is in power, he will load up the U.S. with even more debt, take the money, sell off everything to China and other foreign powers, take the money, and then burn the country down for the insurance money."

Which is... a fine description of what Obama has already done. But hey vote for the proven track record of evil failure if you want.

Obama will be clinking champagne glasses in Switzerland with Soros after he leaves office, he doesn't give a shit that he ran the country into the ground. As you say, what a guy!

[anon]

"South Africa is a horror story and a stark warning of what's to come. Black rule leads to poverty, crime, and decay everywhere."

Latin America is a more appropriate representation of what the US is becoming. Black proportion of the US population has remained more or less constant since the early 70s, if I remember correctly. Hispanics (absolutely) and Asians (in % terms) have had large increases.

I think multi-racials (or actually everyone) self-identifies? In this vein, the stats on "births to mothers of xx race" are not entirely representative because of miscegenation...

[r]

JP,

At least, Obama was not born rich and he actually showed more compassion in that clinging to guns speech than Romney who said 47% of the population don't pay federal income tax and take responsibility for their lives. So vote for Gordon Gekko if you like, but being a conservative should mean preserving the status quo, not being a radical. Romney is a radical compared to Obama in that regard. I'll take the academic, thank you very much.

Beisdes, it seems Cheney was right when he stated, "Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Funny man that Cheney. Barrel of laughs.

R

[Conquistador]

"That doesn't explain the second part of the Economist's headline, "while much of the rest of the continent is clawing its way up"." - Dave

It doesn't mean anything just the usual elite liberal spin on Africa. Apparently cell phone access is the latest hip thing that will lead Africa out of poverty. I swear like a year or two ago the Economist was bemoaning about Africa being left behind.

[asdf]

"That doesn't explain the second part of the Economist's headline, "while much of the rest of the continent is clawing its way up"."

South Africa's economy was way above all the rest.

[Sgt. Joe Friday]

"Obama will be clinking champagne glasses in Switzerland with Soros after he leaves office..."

And smoking Kool menthols or Newports.

[Conquistador]

@ JP

Soros actually dislikes Obama. The guy didn't give a cent to Obama this time around instead he's just giving money to Democratic congressional candidates and liberal PACs.

http://www.ironmill.com/2012/08/20/george-soros-disappointed-by-obama-both-politically-and-personally/

[Conquistador]

@ r

Obama had a childhood of privileged not hardship.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/chapter-i-a-childhood-of-privilege-not-hardship/article/2508416#.UIBp567hdiU

[jeanne]

The DNC is trotting out the abortion issue as we speak siggie..using tapes from 2008. Ouch.

We wimmins got to be terrified of this horrible, horrible man.

[Scrutineer]

"Obama is leading in state polls"

iirc, state polls in the 2008 election were usually done by smaller organizations that lacked the resources to conduct daily, up-to-date surveys like Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. If that's still true, the state poll trends lag the national results.

[Peter A]

"If it weren't for massive voter fraud, Romney would have this in the bag"

Honestly, it is probably the other way around. Any state using Diebold voting machines can be assumed to be committing fraud on behalf of the GOP. The only reason to use computerized voting machines is to cover your tracks. The GOP yells so much about voter fraud because it is the party that systematically commits it. But hell, in the end the fraud in both parties probably more or less evens out.

[HS: Huh? Voter fraud has ALWAYS benefited Democrats; why do you think Democrats are ALWAYS opposed to anti-voter-fraud laws like requiring photo ID? The NY Republicans know that Democrats stole the election from Nixon with fradulent voting.]

[DaveinHackensack]

Walter Russell Meade isn't a lefty and he was cautiously bullish on Africa in a recent post: http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/10/12/africa-goes-boom/

Yes, South Africa was more advanced, with a first world standard of living for its white minority (one that wealthy whites there still have). But the Economist article was about relative trajectories, not absolute positions.

FWIW, a friend of mine sponsors a school in Ethiopia and was there a couple of weeks ago. Still a poor country, but from his photos and posts about it, seems far from the hellhole it was in the '80s.

[HS: Living standards will increase in Africa because of Chinese colonialism.]

[Ivan]

HS: You do realize that elections are going to be won on electoral votes, especially with the battleground swing states, right? Romney is still doing badly in those states.

[The Legendary Linda]

I found it fascinating how Romney seemed to DOMINATE Obama in both debates, behaving as though he had more status than the president of the united states. Romney repeatedly interrupted the president ordering him to answer questions directly, and at one point silencing the president, ordering him to wait his turn. Romney reminded me of the dorky white male high school teacher forced to teach in the inner city, and awkwardly trying to teach middle class values by scolding and lecturing the mulatto thug in his class who is not used to being stood up to.

I'm not sure how it will play with us women. On the one hand women love men who act alpha and dominate, and there is nothing more alpha than dominating a sitting president of the united states and making him your bitch.

But on the other hand white liberals are implying (correctly) that is was racist. The president of the united states is the most high status person on the planet and is treated with reverence. The fact that a nobody like mitt Romney can just dominate and diminish him face to face on live TV shows that even in 2012, White privilege looms large and race trumps status.

[Kaz]

'but in fact Romney really rocked that answer with his explanation about how he hired more women to work for him and how he gave them flexible hours.'

Oh man that was all the rage on liberal sites after the debate.

Mostly posts written by men of course saying, 'how dare he treat women differently!'. 'Women don't want to work less they just want equal treatment' blah blah blah. Some female feminists were pissed too, but that statement largely resonated with most women.

Women in every single field, especially among the highly educated ones, elect to work fewer hours than men. This is especially an issue in medicine where they enforced 50% gender enrollment, so now we have even a greater shortage of doctors.

Moving on, women really do want flexibility and work less, and dammit Romney just said he'll work to give them that.

[PM]

[HS: Living standards will increase in Africa because of Chinese colonialism.]

Perhaps another reason African countries will become wealthier is because of globalisation and technological progress. If there is something that Africans cannot do, they can 'outsource' their problem to other parts of the world. In the 19th century the white men sorting out the Kenyan sanitation system would have been colonial officials (bad), whereas today they might be the representatives of a Western company brought in especially by the sovereign Kenyan government, paid for with Western aid money (good).

[Jokah Macpherson]

OK, I still think the gender pay gap question was stupid, but if Romney has the composure to flatter his way out of it and it works, I'm fine with whatever it takes to makes sure a Democratic president doesn't get to nominate Supreme Court Justices the next four years.

[Insider]

'there is nothing more alpha than dominating a sitting president of the united states and making him your bitch.'

Maybe we watched different debates. From where I sat, in the second debate, Obama out-alpha'd Romney. Now, it was by a much closer margin than Romney outdoing Obama in the first debate, but still...

[GIlbert Pinfold]

David, I don't see what you don't get. Asdf's comment was about 'relative trajectories'. South Africa is declining from a moderate base (and Adam Smith said: 'there is a lot of ruin in a nation'); whereas other sub-saharans are growing from near nil. The end of the Cold War has helped end ruinous proxy wars in places like Mozambique, allowing them to crawl forward somewhat with foreign, including chinese, investment in resources and correlated infrastructure.

Ironically, South Africa elected the ANC/SACP alliance (commonly referred to as the ANC, possibly because SACP stands for South African Communist Party) in 1994, a few short years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

[Comrade]

Romney did poorly on a foreign policy question (Libya). Ryan's performance wasn't that great either.

Additionally, Romney's foreign policy is anything but soft, and it will be more difficult to make a "soft sell."

All Obama has to do is point at Romney, stare into the camera, and say "warmonger" a couple of times.

I suddenly feel like the final debate could be a disaster for Romney.

[blackafrican]

If you look at the gallup numbers closely you'll see this lead is mostly because of southern evangelicals who are no longer wavering. southern evangelicals won't decide this election, god willing.

[Drole Prole]

Romney was able lure liberal women of Massachusetts with daddy issues looking for a strong father figure to dominate the state as Governor. He can do the same with the liberal women of the entire US.

[Allerious]

Not related to the subject of this post, but highly related to the subject of this blog:

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/articles/2012/09/bostons-ethical-culture-smug-index/

It's an article describing yet more SWPL idiocy, this time from Boston (or Baww'stin as the locals have it).

Money quote:

"Life Alive, a vegetarian café in Central Square, takes itself very seriously. The music overhead is New Age and plaintive. Patrons are encouraged to bus their tables themselves, in the community spirit. Locally sourced dishes abound on the menu, among them an entrée called 'The Healer.' For $6.79, you can treat yourself to the 12-ounce 'Superhero Alive'—a juice concoction with carrot, apple, spirulina, cayenne, and other wholesome ingredients, along with something called 'pure water.' The place even has a mission statement, printed right on the menu, in which you’re told that you’re about to have 'the profound experience of contributing to personal and planetary wellness as you blissfully nourish yourself.'"

[Insert appropriate comments about decadence and impending collapse of Western Civ here]

[Secret of NAM]

"But on the other hand white liberals are implying (correctly) that is was racist. The president of the united states is the most high status person on the planet and is treated with reverence."

1)Romney is asking voters to give him the throne.
2)Voters have to be able to view him in that role.
3)It's easier to view him in that role when he asserts himself in an aggressive way.
4)Liberals say "racist" to gain an edge and for no other reason.

Reverence for politicians is disgusting as they're thugs and they use their positions to advance themselves.

[XVO]

"while much of the rest of the continent is clawing its way up"

This doesn't contradict the problems seen in South Africa. Nigeria is the "rising star" of the continent and while their gains are large, they are still no where near as economically advanced as South Africa.

GDP per capita nominal
SA ~7200
N ~1200

GDP per capita ppp
SA ~11000
N ~2500

Nigeria's gains can probably be attributed to it's relative stability and oil. South Africa has a long way to fall.

[Scipio Africanus]

Based on teh electoral maps I'm seeing, Obama is never lost his lead, and is bouncing back after the last debate.

But I'm worried that many other people also think Romney is ahead now, too. I'm worried because that means Obama's victory willl be seen as illegitimate, and the result of a stolen election.

[JP]

Allerious, I think the money quote from that article is:

"organic-only consumers seem to be more likely to cheat and steal than others. According to this study, consumers who wear a “halo of green consumerism” for some reason feel morally licensed to judge themselves by standards quite different from the ones by which they like to judge others."

Which is true of sanctimonious SWPLs, including most of all the SWPL in chief, Obama, who thinks that his virtue entitles him to fsck the rest of us.

[Joe Schmoe]

Linda:

That's not racist at all. Obama is being judged on the MERITS. (Probably the first time he's ever been judged on the merits.)

On the merits, Obama should not be President. A white man with his resume never would have been elected. He's not qualified. He has no record. No experience. No real political skill, other than giving speeches full of platitudes. This is not to say that Obama does not have some positive attributes. I always saw him as a competent person with a great deal of promise. Maybe if he'd waited for 10 years before running for President he could have acquired the requisite experience and record. But he didn't wait, so he had no experience and no record.

Not surprisingly, once this unqualified candidate was elevated to office, he failed miserably.

Romney is simply pointing this out. He is dominating Obama to demonstrate that Obama is a nobody, an empty suit who never should have been elected the first time. Romney, by contrast, has the experience and skills that a President should have. He is qualified, and that's what he was trying to point out.

Also, this is not without historical precedent. When Ronald Reagan ran against Jimmy Carter in 1980, he out-alphaed a sitting President. Reagan's TV commercials from the 1980 election are awesome -- they depict Carter (correctly) as a pussy who didn't have the balls to solve the Iranian hostage crisis. My favorite says something like "do you really think that they'd be taking Americans hostage, storming our embassies, and burning our flag...if Ronald Reagan had been President? President Carter's weak and indecisive leadership has created this crisis and it is time for a change," etc.

Unlike Obama, Carter was qualified to be elected President in the first instance. But Reagan still out-alphaed him in the campaign -- and completely crushed him at the polls.

So there is nothing racist about Romney's tactics, IMO they are perfectly legitimate.

[Just Speculating]

"On the one hand women love men who act alpha and dominate, and there is nothing more alpha than dominating a sitting president of the united states and making him your bitch."

You guys seem to forget that Obama was an alpha dude in 2007 and women loved him as well, especially attractive young White women.

[Just Speculating]

"On the one hand women love men who act alpha and dominate, and there is nothing more alpha than dominating a sitting president of the united states and making him your bitch."

You guys seem to forget that Obama was an alpha dude in 2007 and women loved him as well, especially attractive young White women.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss!

[The Legendary Linda]

"Maybe we watched different debates. From where I sat, in the second debate, Obama out-alpha'd Romney. Now, it was by a much closer margin than Romney outdoing Obama in the first debate, but still..."

I agree that thanks partly to the moderator and having the last word, Obama narrowly won the second debate (unlike the first debate where he got massacred), however I think Romney was more alpha even when he lost.

I admired how confrontational he was with a sitting president (in refreshing contrast to most people who are worshiping sycophants)and I didn't like the way Obama reacted to Romney's aggression. Obama should have just looked him in the eye and debated man to man, but instead he just stood there smiling at the moderator as Romeny demanded Obama specif how much he cut. It was only after the moderator refused to restrain Romney did Obama finally make eye contact with his opponent. Obama was saying with his body language that he doesn't have to engage this man as a peer, and Romney was saying both physically and verbally, "yes you do".

[The Legendary Linda]

"Maybe we watched different debates. From where I sat, in the second debate, Obama out-alpha'd Romney. Now, it was by a much closer margin than Romney outdoing Obama in the first debate, but still..."

I agree that thanks partly to the moderator and having the last word, Obama narrowly won the second debate (unlike the first debate where he got massacred), however I think Romney was more alpha even when he lost.

I admired how confrontational he was with a sitting president (in refreshing contrast to most people who are worshiping sycophants)and I didn't like the way Obama reacted to Romney's aggression. Obama should have just looked him in the eye and debated man to man, but instead he just stood there smiling at the moderator as Romeny demanded Obama specif how much he cut. It was only after the moderator refused to restrain Romney did Obama finally make eye contact with his opponent. Obama was saying with his body language that he doesn't have to engage this man as a peer, and Romney was saying both physically and verbally, "yes you do".

[The Real Vince]

I just want to be clear: If Obama wins are we gonna say he stole the election (typical black guy) or that people were bamboozled by the librul media, or a combination of the two? Maybe we'll say Romney lost for the same reason as McCain -- he's not a "real" conservative.

[DaveinHackensack]

"David, I don't see what you don't get. Asdf's comment was about 'relative trajectories'."

My response was to Conquistador's comment, not Asdf's (hence, my point that Meade isn't a lefty).

"All Obama has to do is point at Romney, stare into the camera, and say "warmonger" a couple of times."

Seems a risky strategy for the guy who tripled the number of troops in Afghanistan and started a war with Libya that has lead to the spread of instability and Al Qaeda affiliates in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere in the region. Romney probably wouldn't call him on it though, given his idea that he needs to be more hawkish than Obama, but a GOP-leaning Super PAC could use it against Obama in an ad buy in swing states.

The ad would show O saying "warmonger" and then fade to black & white with some ominous music:

Voice Over:

"But who is the real warmonger?"

[footage of war in Afghanistan]

"In Afghanistan, Obama tripled the number of troops in a pointless war. More than 2000 American troops have now been killed there, two thirds of them on Obama's watch."

[footage of our ambassador getting dragged through the streets of Obama]

"Obama started a war in Libya without thinking about the consequences. Thanks to Obama, Al Qaeda is now spreading in the region.

Obama: making us less safe in the world and making us poorer at home. It's time for a change."

FYI, according to RCP's new national average of polls today, the race has tightened: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[de Broglie]

I don't understand why the African countries cannot pull themselves up by their bootstraps like South Korea or even Malaysia. The African people have so much potential. Just wait until the day when Africa has Noble Prize winners in the non-peace fields.

[The Legendary Linda]

"Reverence for politicians is disgusting as they're thugs and they use their positions to advance themselves."

Well those who know Obama well would argue he's the exception to the rule; the rare politician who is not motivated by self-interest and genuinely cares about the most disenfranchised people on the planet (blacks, Muslims) and has contempt for those like Romney and George Soros who he views as greedy value transferers or those like Netanyahu who he probably views as oppressors. Obama appears to be deliberately trying to use the presidency to take status away from people he feels don't deserve it, which is why many Wall street billionaires (who used to support him) now feel snubbed and disrespected (even as their actual wealth has increased under Obama).

Obama's biographers point to how he altruistically became a community organizer, refusing to pursue a lucrative career in big law which was considered beneath Obama's exceptional ethical standards.

But regardless of whether Obama or any other president DESERVES reverence, the fact remains that the sitting president is virtually always the most high status man in America (and by extension the world) so it's hard to believe Romney would have been so confrontational and condescending towards a WHITE sitting president. And as others have pointed out, if a black had behaved that way towards a WHITE sitting president, the backlash would have been colossal.
Romney definitely benefits from white privilege when debating Obama and appears to know that.

[not too late]

[HS: Living standards will increase in Africa because of Chinese colonialism.]

For the sake of the planet, I hope the Chinese push birth control in Africa like they did at home. It works here in the US where native born blacks have a tfr of like 2.0. That is below replacement rate.

[jeanne]

"But on the other hand white liberals are implying (correctly) that is was racist."

Not racist, just disrespectful of the office, or so I thought at the time. It was a gamble and Romney may have been right in taking it. Who knows.

[asdf]

The Legendary Linda,

Your simply engaged in hero worship. History will view him very poorly.

[Insider]

'Obama was saying with his body language that he doesn't have to engage this man as a peer, and Romney was saying both physically and verbally, "yes you do".'

Okay, well in my life experience, the one who's always demanding to be 'dealt with' or 'reckoned' with is attempting to qualify himself to an alpha. Obama's lack of eye contact signifies alpha status. Romney getting aggressive is a sign of weakness, because he's attempting to qualify himself to Obama.

For example, Romney was in the middle of talking about oil production...Obama cuts him off to just tell him that what he is saying is false. Then, when Romney attempts to directly confront Obama, Obama turns his back, walks to the chair, smirks and says 'I'll give you your time.'

That's classic alpha.

------
Just for anyone keeping track---the latest Rasmussen has the race at a tie. So yes, it's quite possible that Obama stopped Romney's momentum.

[JP]

"those who know Obama well would argue he's the exception to the rule; the rare politician who is not motivated by self-interest and genuinely cares about the most disenfranchised people on the planet"

This is a joke, right? Obama ONLY cares about Obama. He is a malignant NARCISSIST.

"Obama appears to be deliberately trying to use the presidency to take status away from people he feels don't deserve it"

And this, in your mind, is a positive recommendation? A good thing? Personally I view this as unconstitutional, unjust, and further evidence of his narcissism (why the hell should he think he is entitled to arbitrate who deserves what?).

"Obama was saying with his body language that he doesn't have to engage this man as a peer"

No, he was saying "I am lying" and "I fear you". That's what it means when you can't keep eye contact with the person you're talking to.

[The Legendary Linda]

"Also, this is not without historical precedent. When Ronald Reagan ran against Jimmy Carter in 1980, he out-alphaed a sitting President. Reagan's TV commercials from the 1980 election are awesome -- they depict Carter (correctly) as a pussy who didn't have the balls to solve the Iranian hostage crisis."

Well obviously trashing presidents in TV campaign adds is nothing new, but what made Tuesday's debate so fascinating is a mere citizen was aggressively talking over and talking down to a sitting president face to face.

Normally the sitting president has so much status that even his most vociferous enemies are reverential to his face. But Obama doesn't get that privilege that's supposed to naturally come with the job. We see other politicians interrupting his state of the union to call him a liar or wagging their finger in his face or as in Tuesday's debate, demanding that he answer the question as stated and telling him to wait his turn before speaking.

Obama still gets far more respect than the average white American or even the average white public figure, but he does not get the level of face to face deference that white presidents consistently received.

[sabril]

"f Obama wins are we gonna say he stole the election (typical black guy) or that people were bamboozled by the librul media, or a combination of the two? "

Seems to me that Obama is doing extremely well given how weak the economy is. I do think that the "librul media" is playing a role in this. If there were a Republican in the White House, I bet there would be a lot more news stories about the weak economy. JMHO.

[DaveinHackensack]

Obama now back ahead in the RCP national poll average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

But Romney getting closer on the no-tossup electoral map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

One more good poll in Virginia and he probably pulls ahead.

[Camlost]

"Well those who know Obama well would argue he's the exception to the rule; the rare politician who is not motivated by self-interest and genuinely cares about the most disenfranchised people on the planet (blacks, Muslims) and has contempt for those like Romney and George Soros who he views as greedy value transferers or those like Netanyahu who he probably views as oppressors."

LOL, Muslims are "disenfranchised" ??

[Danram]

InTrade is worthless. It's a lagging indicator that just follows what the polls are saying.

But Romney is now definitely the odds-on favorite because of four things:

1) Incumbent presidents always poll at least 1-2 percentage points below their job approval ratings. That's why any job approval rating below 50% in considered to be very dangerous. Obama's job approval rating has been stuck at 47-48% for a long time now. Given all the crap that's now starting to come out about the Benghazi fiasco and attempted cover-up, that's highly unlikely to improve in the next two weeks.

2) Undecided voters typically tend to break decisively for the challenger down the stretch, usually by at least a 2-to-1 margin. Obama is a known quantity now, unlike in 2008, and he now has a record he has to defend. If a voter hasn't decided by now to support him for re-election, the odds are that he/she never will. Romney will ultimately get most of the 5% or so remaining undecided voters.

3) No presidential candidate who has polled at 50% or better in the Gallup poll in mid-October has ever lost. Romney is now at 51-52%

4) No incumbent US president has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate of over 7.2%. Even using the obviously cooked numbers from last month (Does anyone seriously believe that there were 890,000 new jobs created in September?), the official unemployment rate is now at 7.8%. Moreover, most voters now understand that the actual unemployment rate, once the millions of people who have stopped looking for work entirely are factored back in, is over 11%. The percentage of the US workforce that is now employed is at a post-war low.

Put all of this together, and I think that not only will Rommey win, but he will win rather comfortably.

[Rifleman]

"On the merits, Obama should not be President. A white man with his resume never would have been elected. He's not qualified. He has no record. No experience. No real political skill, other than giving speeches full of platitudes. This is not to say that Obama does not have some positive attributes. I always saw him as a competent person with a great deal of promise. Maybe if he'd waited for 10 years before running for President he could have acquired the requisite experience and record. But he didn't wait, so he had no experience and no record.

So there is nothing racist about Romney's tactics, IMO they are perfectly legitimate.

Posted by: Joe Schmoe | October 19, 2012 at 11:27 AM
--------------------------------

It should be recognized that the support for and bias towards Obama is explicitly racist, Obama benefits from that.

The subtext is that White people are innately inferior, at least morally, and that they need to redeem themselves from this White racial sin.

Anyone who confronts and counters "The Redeemer"(Obama) is racist(sinner) BY DEFINITION.

Romney is the better man and the better candidate, but race trumps reason so this election is far closer than it should be.

[Toad]

"Romney really rocked that answer with his explanation about how he hired more women to work for him and how he gave them flexible hours."

Not very 'Alpha'.
A real 'Alpha' would say:
"I try to not hire women because they should be home making babies. But when I do, I don't pay them as much because they aren't as productive as men."

Don't put the pussy on a pedestal.

[Toad]

"He is the top 5000 ...
He is a very rich dude who could not relate to a working class or middle class person"

Hear hear. Honey Boo-Boo's mom for President.

[JP]

"it's hard to believe Romney would have been so confrontational and condescending towards a WHITE sitting president."

Ya mean, he would have showed the same respect for a white president that Gore and Kerry showed for their fellow white man Dubya?

"as others have pointed out, if a black had behaved that way towards a WHITE sitting president, the backlash would have been colossal."

Those others must be nuts. Like you. Blacks can get away with anything in this country, especially if the target is white, and doubly so if the target is a white Republican.

"Romney definitely benefits from white privilege when debating Obama and appears to know that."

Only in your crazy world.

I bet Romney would much rather have the real privilege that the media grants to Democrats than the imaginary privilege that white Republicans supposedly have.

[whiskeysplace]

Romney is likely to govern as he did in MA. Which was fairly moderate, centrist, even liberal. That's as good as it gets for conservatives, but that's driven by the female vote. The only reason its close is White women still worshipping Obama as Jesus 2.0.

[Insider]

'That's what it means when you can't keep eye contact with the person you're talking to.'

You are correct that sometimes a lack of eye contact, coupled with staring at the ground or some other weak body language means what you say. However, Obama displayed none of those other coupled body language tells.

The last Presidential debate, the more I think about it, is probably the best one I have ever seen. Two equally matched opponents fighting hard on both a mental and rhetorical level.

'"On the merits, Obama should not be President. A white man with his resume never would have been elected. He's not qualified. He has no record. No experience.'"

This is such a tired, old line. I actually believe they ran a list of Presidents with equivalent or less experience than BO at the time of taking office. 2008 happened, deal with it.

[tiny]

"[Obama] genuinely cares about the most disenfranchised people on the planet (blacks, Muslims) and has contempt and has contempt for those like Romney and George Soros who he views as greedy value transferers"

"Legendary" Linda, you are a moronic troll. Muslims make a good living in America, they are given free reign in Europe, and they are dominant in the developing world. Whether or not their non-Muslim neighbors like them or not is beside the point. Blacks have challenges in America but they are not without political clout. If they truly want to shake things up, they can. They aren't disenfranchised like the Roma or Hmong who have no power and are far poorer than them. And progressives love George Soros. Out of the value transferers, he's the only good guy because he invests a ton of his money into progressive causes.

The comment section has really degraded in quality. Half Sigma should be more selective of which comments he allows to pass moderation.

[Just Speculating]

"For example, Romney was in the middle of talking about oil production...Obama cuts him off to just tell him that what he is saying is false. Then, when Romney attempts to directly confront Obama, Obama turns his back, walks to the chair, smirks and says 'I'll give you your time.'

That's classic alpha."

I'm neither an Obamapologist nor Romney supporter, but in the 2nd debate, Mitt had his ass handed to him by Obama.