In order to win a future presidential election, Republicans either (1) need to win more of the non-Hispanic white vote; or (2) win more of the minority vote.
We know that Steve Sailer has pointed out that whites are more than 70% of voters and will remain a majority of voters for some time, even though the white percent of the population is declining. But we need to be realistic about how much of the white vote Republicans can realistically capture.
As I mentioned after the Vice Presidential debate, the abortion issue is toxic for Republicans among many white voters. As long as Republicans are the anti-abortion party, they can never unite all whites, and I don’t see the Republicans giving that up.
Republicans could have done better among prole whites. There seems to have been a definite Republican weakness among prole whites in the so called “rust-belt” areas. But what do Republicans offer prole whites? Obama gave prole whites guaranteed healthcare and Republicans wanted to take it away from them. Republicans are anti-union, and in favor of lowering taxes for the rich. They can say they will “create jobs” by doing that, but a lot of prole whites aren’t convinced that making things better for the rich are going to “create jobs” for the working class.
Now it’s true that Hispanics are currently not a huge percentage of the electorate, but it’s also true that they are growing as a percentage of the population and therefore will grow as a percentage of the electorate, which means that each year Republicans need to win a greater percentage of the white vote to be competitive, unless they can somehow win a greater percentage of the minority vote.
I predict that Republicans will cling bitterly (to borrow from Obama) to their main positions of anti-abortion and tax cuts for the rich, which will prevent them from making any significant inroads among whites. Republicans will probably move left on two issues that they were always ambivalent about anyway: immigration and climate change. The climate change stuff will do some minor harm to the economy, but going soft on immigration will be catastrophic for Republicans by creating more Hispanic voters who will vote Democratic.
Also, I predict that Republicans will champion Marco Rubio as their next candidate.
* * *
By the way, exit polls show that Obama got 73% of the Asian vote, 71% of the "Latino" vote, and only 69% of the Jewish vote (down from 83% in 2008), so Jews are no longer the most heavily Democratic voting bloc after blacks.